Hogs Left with One Last Big Picture Problem for Van Horn to Solve Before Postseason

Kentucky's Jelkin sets perfect stage for Arkansas Razorbacks to figure out who will should go Day 2 going forward

Arkansas Razorbacks pitcher Gabe Gaeckle delivers pitch against Ole Miss. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

Note: Shortly after publication, Arkansas coach Dave Van Horn indicated Cole Gibler may move to the bullpen this week depending on how standings start shaking out in regard to the SEC Tournament seedings.

Sometimes the Lord provides the answer before you ever knew what question to ask.

The past several weeks for the Razorbacks have been a mad scramble to figure out hitting woes while battling back into contention for a Top 10 spot in college baseball and a legitimate shot at hosting a regional. And now, as the dust settles from the frenzy that has been, Arkansas has fought its way into a position where, if it can win the season-ending series with Kentucky, odds are likely the regional will take place at Baum-Walker. 

Simultaneously though, the picture became much wider than a tightly focused series with the Wildcats. The Razorbacks have to shore up the final few leaks in the boat before regionals.

The most glaring big picture problem for Arkansas is head coach Dave Van Horn hasn't been able to settle on a consistent second-day pitcher. For much of the year that role has fallen upon sophomore lefty Cole Gibler.

However, as of late in a desperate effort to maximize former ace Gabe Gaeckle, Van Horn has kicked the tires on the more experienced junior as the No. 2 guy. Unfortunately, time is running out.

The Hogs have this game and perhaps a second in the SEC Tournament to figure it out. Fortunately, there is no better team than Kentucky to help sort through a Day 2 starter situation.

That's because while Arkansas has been up and down trying to find its No. 2, the Wildcats simply made the unique choice of having its ace go on the second day, providing the ultimate test for either Gaeckle or Gibler.

Kentucky's Jaxon Jelkin is everything anyone could ask for in an ace. He's tall, tons of movement on everything he throws, mentally strong and is more conditioned to go deeper into games than perhaps any pitcher in all of college baseball.

His last time out was a classic against Florida where he went all nine innings, striking out 12 on 130 pitches. No bullpen and no worries as he easily sewed up a 4-2 victory for his 12th win of the season.

The week before that he run-ruled Tennessee in eight innings, striking out 11 on 105 pitches, so there is no need getting hopes up that fatigue may kick in. It's a rare day that Jelkin goes less than eight full innings or less than 100 pitches.

"He's a fifth year guy," Van Horn said at his mid-week press conference. "Bounced around a bunch of schools, and he's probably told Coach, 'Hey, just let me go man. I'm not too concerned about it. That's what I like to do.S o got to give him credit for that."

That places a lot of pressure on Gaeckle, the presumed Game 2 starter this weekend provided Van Horn doesn't run him on in relief Thursday night, which is an option he said he intended to leave open. Gaeckle rarely gets out of the first couple of innings without giving up at least one home run and is heavily taxing on the Hogs' bullpen.

Van Horn said he didn't think the additional weight of knowing his Jelkin rarely leaves the game and almost always finds a way to win will affect whomever he decides to start. However, the advice he had for his yet to be named starter came with its own pressure.

"I think the main thing is, is, if I'm starting pitcher [opposite Jelkin], I'm thinking when I go out of the game, I want to be ahead," Van Horn said. "And I've done my job pretty much [if that's the case]."

Gaeckle slid into the Day 2 starter role this past week against Oklahoma where he went 4.2 innings while giving up three runs on five hits and a couple of walks. And yes, he gave up his customary early home run, this time on his eighth pitch. 

The good news though is Arkansas got essentially what it had been getting from Gibler lately, allowing him to move to Day 3 with no steps taken backward. The bad news is Arkansas got essentially what it had been getting from Gibler lately.

Gaeckle was expected to be a Day 1 monster who was going to bull his way through the SEC. Based on how Van Horn has been so pointedly stubborn about sticking by Gaeckle as a starter in some capacity, he has to be showing hints of that same promise somewhere.

Perhaps squaring off head-to-head with such an efficient machine like Jelkin is the challenge Gaeckle needs to turn the competitive switch on inside him that will free him up to become the man this coaching staff keeps betting he is inside.

If he improves, it all but guarantees he takes the mound if there is a second game at the SEC Tournament where the goal will be to continue stretching him out.

Either Gaeckle or Gibler has to start getting to the late seventh having only given up two or three runs. If they can't win the game, someone, preferably the Day 2 starter, has to preserve the bullpen. 

If Gaeckle responds to Jelkin correctly this week, he may not get another win the rest of this season while, at the same time being directly responsible for winning every remaining series by sending the Razorbacks into the next game with the dominant set of pitching talent still available.

The one thing Van Horn must avoid at all cost is having an ace in Hunter Dietz thrown into a situation like Hagan Smith faced in the 2024 postseason where he not only had to win every start, but go extremely deep into games doing it, otherwise the Razorbacks has very little chance.

This team wasn't built that way. It was designed initially to get quality starts every day with strong enough hitters spread evenly across the line-up so as to always be a threat to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Friday night will go a long way in showing if that can be the final evolution of this Arkansas team.