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Can Hogs Follow Path of Bad SEC Team Which Caught Fire in NCAAs?

Mediocre Razorbacks in better shape than legendary rival which barely qualified for postseason
Bob Stephens|
Arkansas Razorbacks catcher Ryder Helfrick, shown after his second home run beat the Auburn Tigers on the road, is the Hogs' emotional leader.
Arkansas Razorbacks catcher Ryder Helfrick, shown after his second home run beat the Auburn Tigers on the road, is the Hogs' emotional leader. | Arkansas Communications

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Arkansas RazorbacksOle Miss Rebels

Great expectations often lead to even greater disappointment. Nobody knows that better than Arkansas Razorbacks baseball fans.

The surprising collapse of the Diamond Hogs has fans and coaches alike scratching their heads and searching for answers.

Actually, the reasons for Arkansas' 26-15 record are obvious: The Hogs don't hit, pitch or play defense well enough to beat good teams. At least not on a consistent basis.

Little more than a week ago, the Razorbacks went to Alabama and swept the No. 8 Crimson Tide. Then they beat the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs four days later in their most recent SEC showdown, appearing to be on a mid-season roll having locked in at least 4-of-6 against back-to-back Top 10 teams.

Then visiting Georgia rebounded to take the next two from the Hogs to stay atop the SEC standings with a 13-5 record.

But there is hope for these occasionally hapless Hogs, even after Saturday's 26-14 thrashing by the Bulldogs. Perhaps especially because of that embarrassment, this is the time some teams collectively climb off the mat with greater determination and improved performance.

Still, here's the hard truth: Just past the halfway mark of the 30-game gauntlet that features 10 conference opponents, the Razorbacks own a pedestrian 9-9 SEC mark.

Worse still, not even the cozy confines of Baum-Walker Stadium and the support of rabid Razorback fans — one of the best home-field advantages in college baseball — is enough to help this year's club.

Arkansas is 16-10 at home with losses to Arkansas State, UT Arlington and twice to Stetson. Those shockers foreshadowed the problems to come, including losing five of their last six home games to SEC opponents.

Hog fans are spoiled, but should remain hopeful

With a dozen SEC games left, the Razorbacks are in a three-way tie for ninth place in the 16-team league.

That's unheard of in recent times as Arkansas coach Dave Van Horn has guided his Hogs to at least 18 SEC victories every year dating back to 2017, except when the 2020 season was canceled for Covid.

In five of those seasons, the Hogs won at least 20 SEC games, including 20-10 marks the last three years. They were 22-8 in 2021 while winning the regular-season championship and going 4-0 to breeze to the SEC Tournament title.

Van Horn's program has earned the Omahogs nickname by reaching the College World Series in four of the last seven seasons and eight times during his tenure in Fayetteville.

And while hope seems faint and reality argues the Hogs have little chance of making a late-season run to glory this season, history says it can happen.

Fans may scoff and call that far-fetched or impossible, but it was just four years ago that another scuffling SEC team came of out nowhere to win it all. And that team barely qualified for the SEC Tournament, let alone the NCAA playoff.

Can Hogs finally live up to their early-season hype?

Part of the reason Arkansas fans expect so much is because Van Horn's teams have won so much. They've done everything but bring home the national title trophy.

Each year, Van Horn and his staff rank high in the recruiting battles, which amps up the hype for another big season.

That's one reason the Hogs were ranked No. 4 when the season began. Recruiting rankings fuel expectations and when the players fail to achieve what's been forecast by the national polls, the frustration and disappointment hits the team and Van Horn harder than it does fans.

Arkansas is not the only frustrated blueblood baseball program. Defending national champ LSU, picked to win the SEC, is languishing in 14th place in the SEC with a 6-12 record. The Tigers are 23-18 overall and just 17-11 at home.

So, after losing their last two SEC series in Baum-Walker, why is there hope? Because, on occasion, these Hogs hit well enough. About half the time, the starting pitching is impressive. And the bullpen arms can lock down the late innings, although the key word once again is sometimes.

But what would happen if most of the Hogs hitters get hot in late May, if the pitching gels, the defense tightens, and Van Horn's Hogs are able to ride a wave of confidence and good fortune for just two weeks?

Lots of good teams do that and make a run to Omaha. Van Horn's Razorbacks did it in 2009 when they were fourth in the SEC West and just 14-15 in the conference, but got hot at the right time.

The poster team for a shocking late-season run was accomplished by an SEC team which was in far worse shape than these Hogs.

That's the beauty of sports. The totally unexpected, the seemingly impossible, is always possible.

SEC team changed from losers to legends in a month

In 2022, Ole MIss was 7-14 in SEC games and in danger of not even qualifying for the conference tournament. The NCAA Tournament was too much for the Rebels to even dream about.

But Ole Miss, which was ranked No. 1 in March of 2022, won seven of its last nine conference games over the final three weekends of the regular season to finish with a still unimpressive 14-16 SEC record.

But it was good enough to get the Rebs into the SEC Tournament, where they promptly lost their opener and went home to pray the NCAA Selection Committee would give them a break.

They were the final team to be added to the 64-team NCAA Tournament, the lowest of the No. 3 seeds, with the No, 4 seeds customarily being teams from smaller conferences.

Ole Miss somehow won 10-of-11 tournament games, the lone loss coming to Arkansas. The Rebels swept through the four-team regional hosted by Miami and the Super Regional at Southern Miss to punch their ticket to the College World Series.

The Rebs beat Auburn 5-1 in their Series opener then faced Arkansas three times in four days to see which team would go to the CWS finals to play for the national championship.

The Hogs lost 13-5, rallied to beat the Rebs 3-2, and fell 2-0 in the semifinal as Ole Miss advanced to the final to play Oklahoma, which they beat 10-3 and 4-2 to win the title.

The impossible dream didn't die in Omaha as Ole Miss became the first No. 3 seed to win the national championship since the tournament expanded to 64 teams.

The Rebels had finally played to the level of expectation when they were ranked No. 1 in the country early that season. The question this year is whether the Hogs show the talent that made them No. 4 less than two months ago.

SEC baptism of fire could help Hogs in postseason

If the Rebs did it, why not Arkansas? The Hogs, with their reputation and likely superior record to that of Ole Miss four years ago, should be a No. 2 seed in the NCAAs. With their baptism of fire from a rugged SEC schedule, they'd be a No. 2 seed nobody wants to face.

Van Horn's club also enjoys what appears to be a favorable late-season schedule, with road trips to SEC cellar dweller Missouri (3-15) and Kentucky (8-10) while hosting Ole Miss and Oklahoma, both 10-8.

Recent outcomes give naysayers lots of ammunition, but the Hogs and their future Hall of Fame coach have seven weeks to prove themselves when it matters most.

Stock market analysts have long said, "Past performance does not predict future results." That's often true in sports.

Now Van Horn simply has to work his usual magic on this team that can't find a groove. If that happens, the Hogs might be staying at a hotel in Omaha eight weeks from now.

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Bob Stephens
BOB STEPHENS

Bob Stephens won more than a dozen awards as a sportswriter and columnist in Northwest Arkansas from 1980 to 2003. He started as a senior for the 1975 Fayetteville Bulldogs’ state championship basketball team, and was drafted that summer in the 19th round by the St. Louis Cardinals but signed instead with Norm DeBriyn's Razorbacks, playing shortstop and third base. Bob has written for the Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times, San Diego Union-Tribune, New Jersey Star-Ledger, and many more. He covered the Razorbacks in three Final Fours, three College World Series, six New Year’s Day bowl games, and witnessed many track national championships. He lives in Colorado Springs with his wife, Pati. Follow on X: @BobHogs56

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