All Hogs

Probability of Arkansas' season reaches comical levels after Mississippi State loss

Math says Razorback fans being treated to historically improbable season

Daniel Shi

Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino during the third quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Bulldogs won 38-35.
Arkansas Razorbacks interim head coach Bobby Petrino during the third quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Bulldogs won 38-35. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images
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ESPN's win predictor is a fickle beast. How each factor of a game is taken into consideration and boiled down into a formula will never be a true representation of the game.

However, it does not take a computer model to figure out that Arkansas has blown three games this season that they have had two-possession leads in the second half.

The computer gave Memphis just a 4.8% chance to win the game after running back Mike Washington's 1-yard touchdown run to put the Hogs up 28-10 with 1:35 left in the second quarter.

Against Auburn, ESPN gave the Tigers just a 14.8% chance to win after the quarterback Taylen Green found tight end Rohan Jones across the middle of the field for 50 yards to set up the Hogs inside the Red Zone already leading 21-16.

The drive stalled in a Scott Starzyk field goal and Arkansas failed to score in the fourth quarter.

The worst one came Saturday against Mississippi State. Arkansas had a 14-point lead with just 11:02 left to play when defensive end Quincy Rhodes Jr. sacked Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen to set up second-and-20 at the Bulldog 38-yard line.

ESPN gave Mississippi State just a 2.8% chance to win the game.

Shapen found Anthony Evans III over the middle on the next play for 33 yards to begin the improbable comeback for some sweet redemption after the Bulldogs found themselves on the other side of an impossible come-from-behind win last week against Texas.

The Bulldogs were up 17 points with just under 10 minutes left in the game before Texas stormed back in overtime. Teams had won 429 straight games with those parameters, according to CBS and Chris Hummer.

Using the ESPN in-game predictor, Arkansas' probability of losing all three games is 0.019% or about 1 in 5,260.

For context, the probability that you know someone that has been struck by lightning, according to the National Weather Service, is 1 in 1530.

Yes, it is nearly 3 1/2 times more likely that you know someone that has been struck by lightning than for the Razorbacks to lose all three of those games.

On the flip side, Arkansas' probability of winning all three of those games with the leads and situations that they had is 78.8%. The season would look drastically different if the Hogs just managed to close those three games out, not even taking into account the three other one-score losses they suffered to Tennessee, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.

It's fitting that in a season that's felt like lightning in a bottle for all the wrong reasons, that knowing someone struck by lightning is more likely than the Hogs being 2-7 and the last winless team in the SEC. With Kentucky beating Auburn 10-3, 15 of the 16 SEC teams have a conference win. Arkansas is the last one standing.

For the rest of the season, ESPN doesn't give the Hogs much of a chance in the remaining three games. LSU has a 68.8% chance to win, Texas has an 85.4% chance to win and Mizzou sits at 65.7%.

Arkansas has a 38.6% chance to finish 2-10 and 0-8 in SEC play. Hello, Chad Morris, our old friend.

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Daniel Shi
DANIEL SHI

Covers baseball, football and basketball for Arkansas Razorback on SI since 2023, previously writing for FanSided. Currently a student at the University of Arkansas. He’s been repeatedly jaded by the Los Angeles Angels since 2014. Probably silently humming along to whatever the band is playing in the press box. Follow me on X: @dsh12

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