UPDATE: Looking More Likely Arkansas Will Have More New SEC Opponents Sooner Than Later

Conference realignment hitting overdrive with huge realignment news out of Arizona, Florida past 24 hours

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Aug 4, 2023 12:52 AM EDT

In this story:

[UPDATE: Since this story originally posted, the meeting referenced by the Arizona Board of Regents has concluded and all indications are the Wildcats will have a deal finalized with the Big 12 in the near future. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported Thursday night that the Big 12 CEOs and presidents met Thursday night also to vote on approving Arizona as a member. While Arizona State is also reportedly served by the Arizona Board of Regents, no news came down on whether the Sun Devils will also move to the Big 12.]

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – With all the college realignment news breaking over the past 24 hours and scheduled to continue breaking this evening, it's beginning to look more and more like Texas and Oklahoma aren't going to be the only new additions to the Arkansas schedules.

Following a meeting Wednesday, members of the Board of Trustees at Florida State made it clear the intent is to leave the ACC sooner than later and nearly everyone in the United States and much of Canada knows the SEC is where the Seminoles are headed as soon as FSU snaps the leash that is the ACC's grant of rights deal.

"it's not a matter of if we leave [the ACC], but how and when we leave," FSU trustee Drew Weatherford said.

Fellow trustee Justin Roth went so far as to say he believed the Seminoles would be gone within the year. That has to be a stressful statement to hear for SEC commissioner Greg Sankey who hasn't even been able to dry the ink on a 2024 football schedule that took a lot of effort and ego massaging to get put into place.

If this happens, it sets off an atomic bomb across college athletics. The flood gates open in the ACC as team scramble to find their new forever homes. The SEC will need at least one other school, which would likely come in the form of either Clemson or North Carolina. Then again, it could also end up being Clemson, North Carolina and NC State or Clemson, North Carolina and one of the Virginia schools. It just depends on how Sankey and the SEC presidents want to look at this and how far they're willing go on expansion.

Right now, it looks like the Big Ten fully intends to make the move on Washington and Oregon. There was talk of Cal and Stanford also, but if the ACC is suddenly open for business, that changes things. With Notre Dame losing a football home, perhaps the Big Ten says Notre Dame can either jump in or get left behind with a carrot thrown the Irish's way by bringing in Stanford.

If Notre Dame doesn't want to see the light and stubbornly set itself in position to be completely left out of the next big move, then Pittsburgh jumps to the top of the list followed by Virginia and/or Boston College. All are strong academic schools and Virginia and Boston College add a new market. If this becomes a financial bidding war between the Big Ten and the SEC, the Big Ten has the slight edge, plus, it's a better cultural fit.

Where the biggest potential fight will be is over North Carolina. Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are both television markets that exceed Nashville. It would be lucrative new territory for the league. As for cultural fit, it depends on where in North Carolina you are standing. Part of the state fits really well with the Midwestern/Northeast blend of the Big Ten and part fits really well with SEC. The Tar Heels are a baseball power, which fits really well with the SEC blueprint. If the SEC were to add North Carolina and Florida State, it immediately makes spring a lot more interesting around Baum-Walker Stadium. A stretch of Tennessee, Florida State, Texas, Vanderbilt and North Carolina is enough to keep the coffers overflowing each spring for decades to come.

Either way, North Carolina basketball wins. Duke likely becomes a non-conference game while adding either Michigan, Michigan St., Purdue and Indiana or Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas and Alabama. Those are all options to print money and keep the building packed.

The other unknown in this is the role of the Big 12. It's a league that has two specific goals: 1) Create regional partners. 2) Make basketball better.

With that in mind, the league currently has 13 teams scheduled for next year. It's looking more likely that number grows to 16 with the potential addition of Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. The Board of Regents at Arizona met on Aug. 1 in an emergency session in response to the laughable Apple TV deal that hinged on the number of increased streaming service subscribers to watch what's left of the Pac-12. That has been followed up with another emergency meeting this evening to discuss “possible legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics.”

There's no need to read between the lines there. It's a strong statement that leans heavily toward two athletic programs, Arizona and Arizona State, with no strings tied to a major conference at the moment leaving for the ironically now stable Big 12. It's a move that will officially end the Pac-12 as the the other two teams have reportedly been waiting for a moment where no one else could blame them for destroying the historic conference. It also ups the timeline on the Big Ten picking off Oregon and Washington.

With a western boundary that would solidly be settled with Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah, Colorado and Texas Tech, it would then be time to fill in some holes on the eastern boundary. The magic number in college football suddenly looks like 20 even though the Big Ten and SEC keep saying they aren't in a hurry to get that large.

Louisville make sense as it gives a natural rivalry to Cincinnati and West Virginia while also opening up a new state. North Carolina State or Virginia Tech probably falls into view as a target also, along with Duke. Whichever gets the invite first will likely hint as to which direction the SEC is heading with things.

That leaves Central Florida in need of travel partners. The most likely would be Miami and Georgia Tech. That allows Florida to be evenly split into SEC in the north and Big 12 in the south while providing access into Atlanta. However, it's also feasible the Big 12 strictly focuses on adding new states and markets by bringing on a combination of Louisville, Virginia Tech, NC State/Duke and Georgia Tech

No matter how it shakes out, the ball is already in motion. Arkansas is getting new teams on the schedule. Tonight is just the continuation of finding out who and when it happens.