Perfect Storm
Today Eric Musselman and his Arkansas Razorback basketball team will learn it's seeding, opponent and destination as part of the annual Selection Sunday festivities.
But, unlike most years, none of that matters. This is a wide open tournament and Arkansas is a wide open team.
It will be difficult to pick this year's bracket because in a year where everyone is easily beatable, it's as likely that the Final Four be all 1 seeds as it is for all the 1 seeds to not make the Elite 8.
The Razorbacks exemplify this world of endless possibilities as well as any team. The Hogs could become this year's memorable first round upset just as easily as it could become national champion. There would be zero surprise if either happened.
Here's what we do know. For Arkansas to win a national championship, the following has to happen:
1. The Hogs have to avoid an early time slot.
This team is physically incapable of rolling out of bed and getting a win. If anyone has ever watched the movie "Varsity Blues" and recall the depiction of how the team played following an all-night celebration in that movie then you recognize how out of it and borderline uncoordinated Arkansas looks in early starts.
If Arkansas gets a game before 1 p.m. local time, just chalk them up for a loss on your bracket and move on because they're about to go 0-6 on the year in that time frame.
2. J.D. Notae and Jaylin Williams have to avoid 1st half fouls.
Saul Young / USA Today Sports
Whether fans like it or not, Musselman is right to bench guys with two fouls so he knows he can count on them down the stretch to close the game strong. Teams know this, so they go at both players in hopes of drawing early fouls.
One thing that helps Williams is he is known for taking charges so teams are more uneasy about going at him, but Notae is developing a reputation for taking himself out of the game rather early in the first half.
In Notae's defense, he made the right move in trying to take a charge against Texas A&M. If he's an extra inch forward so his heels aren't hanging over the arc under the basket, he draws a charge and the mentality immediately changes going forward for both Arkansas and Texas A&M.
3. Au'Diese Toney has to be healthy.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
This team is a perfectly constructed engine. But just like any piece of machinery, it just doesn't run without all of its parts.
Toney provides an attitude and level of horsepower that this team needs. While there's a million things Jaylin Williams brings to the table, pure aggressiveness and natural intimidation isn't one.
That's where Toney comes in. His body language and facial expressions indicate a man looking for a fight and it's reflected in his style of play.
Arkansas can't go far without Toney's fear factor.
4. Chris Lykes has to be in single digits in terms of minutes
Marvin Gentry / USA TODAY Sports
As likable as Lykes is as a person, everyone on this team has a defined role, and when he has to step out of his, it's a bad sign for Arkansas.
Lykes is a good off the bench substitute change of pace to pump in a little energy and to create an unexpected adjustment defensively. After playing against much larger players, the inability to mentally switch on a dime to the style of play it takes to keep Lykes from picking you clean is borderline impossible at first.
Small doses of Lykes is great and much needed, but if he has to be in for an extended period of time, it throws off the chemistry and proven style of the team.
5. Davonte Davis has to be in proper form
Nelson Chenault / USA TODAY Sports
Davis is the best defender on this team when he is mentally present. His ability to take a player completely out of the game is second to none.
His quickness and ability to make big plays slashing to the basket is also near the top for this team, but again, only when Davis is mentally present. This has to become a situation where when the bright lights come on, Devo comes on.
That happened last year and he almost became a tournament legend as a freshman. He's got to find that mental switch again if this team is going to bring home the hardware.
6. Whatever's going on with Jaylin Williams has to have passed.
There was a point in time where I texted Andy Hodges to see if he had heard anything out of Tampa about Williams possibly being sick. He hadn't heard anything, but everyone I talked to agreed something just wasn't' right.
This wasn't the Williams we have seen all season. His signature smile was gone.
At times he had a look in his eyes that you only see when someone is either heavily medicated while fighting the flu, just lost his girlfriend, or got fired from his job out of nowhere.
While he was definitely fitting in with the crowd by not being mentally present on Saturday, there was a point where they showed his face for a good five seconds and literally no one was home. He looked comatose.
Typically, if Williams is on the bench, he is still in the game. He's actively engaged and rivaling Musselman in how much he's moving around and contributing from the sidelines.
There is zero chance Arkansas wins if whatever Williams was going through this past week extends into the NCAA Tournament.
7. J.D. Notae has to be the man he knows he is.
Nelson Chenault - USA TODAY - Sports
Notae believes when he steps on the court, no one can stop him and he went through hell to get to this stage to be able to prove it. The mental toughness, drive and determination that it takes to push forward through those sort of things is what makes the player he has become possible.
This is his shot to put all that experience of overcoming and use it as a way to inspire this team to have the will to push through anything when things look down. And when others don't believe, he has to know anything can be overcome and take over until the others understand.
He went through all those things to be the man in this moment, and if he does that, neither he, nor the Razorbacks, can be stopped.
This Arkansas team isn't the dominant force the 1994 team was. Teams that took the floor against that team knew they were going to lose, the question was by how much.
However, if everything above falls in line, this team could join that team in legendary status by bringing a second national championship to the hills of Northwest Arkansas.
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