USA Today Says Hogs Lose Tonight

But what does the film say about Razorbacks' chances?

In a story posted on USA Today this morning, it was predicted that Vermont would take down Arkansas, 85-83.

The Catamounts are so respected by the national media that they are expected to do what No. 2 seeds Kentucky and Auburn couldn’t, and what No. 3 seed Tennessee barely did once on its home floor after losing to the Hogs on the road earlier in the season.

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^{Vermont's Isaiah Powell (14) shoots a three pointer during the America East semi final basketball game between the Hartford Hawks and the Vermont Catamounts at Patrick Gym last season.}

If Vermont is so good that it is apparently deserving of a No. 1 or 2 seed as opposed to its No. 13 seed, then the tape will surely show it. Flipping on video of Arkansas against Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn or even LSU afterward should show equal effort and talent.

Nelson Chenault / USA TODAY Sports

^{Arkansas guard Stanley Umude drives to the basket against No. 1 Auburn. The Razorbacks pulled the upset of the Tigers, who came into the game 22-1, giving Auburn its first conference loss of the season.} 

So, on went the tape, and what unfolded was the play of a good team, not a great team.

Vermont looks solid against the small, undisciplined teams of the America East. In fact, there’s a pretty decent gap between them and the rest of their conference. The issue is the gap between the America East opponents and the top tier of the SEC is so wide that one can’t be seen from the other.

This isn’t a slight on Vermont. The Catamounts are a good team.

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

^{Vermont Catamounts guard Ben Shungu (24) handles the ball during a practice session for the first round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Vermont fans will have a drive similar to South Arkansas fans heading to Fayetteville, while Arkansas fans would need to drive for at least 21 hours to make the game.} 

It’s just hard to judge how good they really are against that level of competition. So let’s work with what we can tell.

Vermont is highly susceptible to athleticism. The team’s footwork on defense gets sloppy at times, which means athletic guards can often blow by them.

In moments where the defenders can keep up, they get so heavy-footed that a hard stop and fade away or step-back creates more space than one is accustomed to when facing NBA level defenders night after night in the SEC. Because of this, the potential for J.D. Notae and Davonte Davis to have big games is definitely there if they stick with their discipline and don’t allow themselves to get carried away and make mistakes.

Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

The second thing that is noticeable is Vermont has good average height, which creates match-up problems against these smaller schools. Most of their players are around the 6-5 to 6-6 range. However, they have no big men and the heights and weights listed in the program don’t seem to match up with what the eyeball sees on the floor.

This is a team that appears to be easily moved around in the paint when the game has to be physical. Also, the tallest player is a shade over 6-8.

There is no Walker Kessler, Oscar Tshiebewe or John Fulkerson to contend with. Jaylin Williams will be the biggest man on the floor, and the physical play of Stanley Umude, Au’Diese Toney and Kamani Johnson should provide an edge on the offensive end.

The other thing that shows up on tape is a lack of spatial awareness. When the ball is in the high post or out top with the floor spread, the Catamounts leave themselves open to the baseline cut on the backside off the drive.

Anyone who has watched Arkansas for any length of time knows the Hogs have a natural muscle memory in this sort of situation that can turn this into a dunk contest by Toney and Umude if the Catamounts can’t shake this bad habit.

Michael Morrison / allHOGS Images

^{Arkansas guard Au'Diese Toney dunks over LSU forward Darius Days during a win at Bud Walton Arena.} 

Even if Vermont coaches have seen this in their own players and put two and two together when watching tape on the Razorbacks, bad habits are hard to break.

On the offensive end of the floor, the Catamounts drive to the basket way more than expected for a team that is touted for its three-point shooting. They take advantage of defenses that get out of position, aren’t as athletic, and don’t play tall when guarding the ball when it goes up inside to a degree that is stunning.

One thing that is apparent is Vermont will either adjust its typical game plan or end up getting into foul trouble from taking a lot of charges because what has worked so well for them is a terrible match-up against the Razorbacks.

Brett Rojo - USA TODAY Sports

^{Central Arkansas Bears guard Camren Hunter (23) is called for a charge against Arkansas Razorbacks forward Jaylin Williams (10) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 97-60.}

However, the potential ray of hope for Vermont is if Arkansas lacks mental focus and Williams and Notae get themselves into foul trouble. The positive for the Razorbacks is that not only is this a night game, which is when the Hogs are most locked in, but it’s what many Razorback fans refer to as a “Vanover” game.

There are a lot of games where the style, pace of play, and physical strength of opposing centers make the play of 7-3 center Connor Vanover a poor fit. However, when the match-ups fall in his favor, he can be highly effective off the bench.

This is one of those games where Vanover can be a productive option should Williams drift into the restricted zone while trying to take charges one too many times. He would have a seven-inch height advantage at worst, Vermont’s athleticism is within his range, and, even though the Catamounts are more of a straight-ahead team as opposed to backing teams down, Vanover should be able to hold his ground should that happen.

Michael Morrison/allHOGS Images

^{CONNOR VANOVER}

The other thing that stands out is Vermont often takes advantage of a lack of speed and proper defensive form by America East teams by throwing excessively long passes to the wings or down low in its halfcourt offense. The Catamounts may get away with this a few times, but it’s playing with fire.

The one thing Arkansas does at times that won’t work is using Chris Lykes as a defensive surprise. SEC teams don’t play against athletes so small, so when Lykes hits the floor, he is able to slip away with a few steals because he attacks the ball in a location that hasn’t had to be a point of awareness for the Alabamas and Tennessee’s of the world.

Vermont is well-versed in playing against much smaller guards. UMBC has a guard who is Lykes with a little better shooting touch, and he did little to affect the Catamounts.

In the end, this is a game that could come down to Davis.

Razorbacks guard Davonte Davis on the practice court before the NCAA Tournament first round game in March. (Gregory Fisher / USA TODAY Sports)

^{Davonte Davis takes in the shoot-around in Buffalo at practice the day prior to the first round of NCAA tournament play.}

If he is up to his usual defensive effectiveness and can shut down either Ryan Davis or Ben Shungu during the first half, then this game could get out of hand quickly. However, if he’s not locked in, the Hogs could be in for a fight that will rely on the Razorbacks to be patient and not shoot themselves out of the game by firing up threes over and over as that’s the only way the film indicates Vermont should be able to win.

Arkansas should dominate the game inside the arc and on the glass to a degree that patience, discipline and intense defense should bring a win. But if the Hogs forget who they are and start playing the selfish style of running down and jacking up threes over and over like they did throughout the first half of the season, they’ll be home catching weekend baseball games at Baum Stadium way earlier than they ever imagined.