ESPN Analytics Say No Chance Hogs Walk Away With Win At Rupp
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. - Arkansas will visit Rupp Arena Saturday to face the Kentucky Wildcats. The Razorbacks come off a 85-82 loss to what was a seven win Vanderbilt. With teams around the SEC able to pull of upsets any given night, it's not out of reason for the Cats to have an off game.
Still, ESPN gives Kentucky a 93.1% chance to protect home court against Arkansas which sits 14-14 overall (5-10 SEC). The Razorbacks have shown some life offensively with Khalif Battle the past four games. He scored a career-high 42 points against Missouri last Saturday and 36 against Vanderbilt earlier in the week.
One reason the Razorbacks could play the role of spoiler in Rupp Saturday is Battle's aggression on the offensive end.
"[Battle] is a player that's in a groove right now," Musselman said. "He's got great confidence. Guys have done a good job getting him the ball. We've tried to add some sets to get him some different looks. He's playing at a really high level right now and has put together some good games from an offensive standpoint. We certainly need him to remain offensively aggressive."
Kentucky does allow teams to score in bunches quite often. In SEC play, the Wildcats have allowed conference opponents to score 80 or more points eight times this season. Arkansas didn't have much success in the previous matchup, but were able to slow the Cats to 63 points in Bud Walton Arena in January.
Basketball is all based on match-ups so it will be interesting to see how Arkansas defends Kentucky's three-point shooting. The Wildcats are knocking down 43% of their attempts from deep in the past two games. John Calipari's squad currently leads the country in three-point percentage at 41%.
Defensively, Arkansas has improved dramatically in three-point defense over the past three weeks. The Razorbacks have not allowed an opponent to connect at more than 30% in the past six games.
"A lot of drills," Musselman said about Arkansas' growth defensively. "We knew it was one of our weaknesses and we've done a good job of fixing that."
The Wildcats can stretch the floor, which helps get players open whether in transition or half-court. Kentucky was slowed down by Arkansas in the previous meeting in Fayetteville but still held a 12-11 edge in fast break points. However, a three-point barrage in the second half managed to help the Cats creep past the Hogs.
Kentucky has one of the more dominant home court offenses in the country. The Wildcats average over 94 points per game at Rupp Arena, including two games where it eclipsed the century mark.
"[Kentucky's] transition offense is lethal," Musselman said. "They have great three-point shooting and stretch the floor out really well. They also have a lot of individual tough match-ups."
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