Playing the Field
Since my daughter was young enough to physically repeat one of the two teams I would name playing each other, our family has picked brackets each year with some sort of reward on the line for whoever wins.
What I have learned is that when it comes to the NCAA tournament, weather you pick based on how much you hate the team or its coach like my wife, choose based on mascots and sometimes school colors like daughter, pretty much just ride the chalk like my 9-year-old son does, or have a research-based system like me, your odds of getting the first two rounds correct are about the same.
It's not until the later rounds that research or chalk tends to rise to the top.
I am a person of character, so I pick a single bracket, and if I enter any of the free online contests, I stick with the same sheet that's trying to take down my family. None of this picking several different brackets and hoping one hits.
When making my picks, I put value into two things:
1) What have you done since late January.
2) Have you demonstrated you can beat high quality opponents multiple times.
The more wins you have over quality opponents in the last 10-12 games, the more likely I am to pick you to move on. I'm looking for someone who's hot now. Wins in November and December how little weight other than to show me you at least have potential to beat a good team.
One thing that surprised me was the lack of success the SEC had once I finished my bracket and looked it back over. What was even more surprising was the SEC team that ended up making a run.
If you had told me before I started sorting through the match-ups that Auburn would be the SEC team that has the best chance to go far, I would have laughed so hard that I might have passed out from lack of oxygen. I would have told you that either Auburn or Alabama would be the first SEC teams to drop.
Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports
However, that's not how the match-ups turned out. Teams I thought would go far have run into unfortunate draws.
Now, some of this will fall apart once the games start. That's because I didn't take the time to break down how teams do against bigger teams, or faster teams, or teams that have powerful inside games, etc.
I was too busy watching the NIT, "Young Rock," and breaking down how disappointing it was to see Suzy take Colton back on "The Bachelor" with my wife to dive that deep.
So, without further ado, my bracket. Let us know on Facebook (@allhogs) and Twitter (@allhogswps) whether you agree, disagree, who you having winning, etc.
I already know I'm going to take heat for my Arkansas pick, but I'm a journalist. My job is to deal with facts, and the facts don't appear to be on the Hogs' side this year.
1ST ROUND
WEST
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Georgia St.
(8) Boise St. vs. (9) Memphis
(5) UConn vs. (12) New Mexico St.
(4) Arkansas vs. (13) Vermont
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Rutgers/Notre Dame
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) Montana St.
(7) Michigan St. vs. (10) Davidson
(2) Duke vs. (15) Cal St. Fullerton
EAST
(1) Baylor vs. (16) Norfolk St.
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) Marquette
(5) St. Mary's vs. (12) Indiana
(4) UCLA vs. (13) Akron
(6) Texas vs. (11) Virginia Tech
(3) Purdue vs. (14) Yale
(7) Murray St. vs. (10) San Francisco
(2) Kentucky vs. (15) St. Peter's
SOUTH
(1) Arizona vs. (16) Wright St./Bryant
(8) Seton Hall vs. (9) TCU
(5) Houston vs. (12) UAB
(4) Illinois vs. (13) UT-Chatanooga
(6) Colorado St. vs. (11) MIchigan
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Longwood
(7) Ohio St. vs. (10) Loyola-Chicago
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Delaware
MIDWEST
(1) Kansas vs. Texas Southern
(1) San Diego St. vs. Creighton
(1) Iowa vs. Richmond
(1) Providence vs. South Dakota St.
LSU vs. (1) Iowa St.
(1) Wisconsin vs. Colgate
(1) USC vs. Miami
(2) Auburn vs. Jacksonville St.
2nd ROUND
WEST
(1) Gonzaga vs. (8) Boise St.
(5) UConn vs. (4) Arkansas
(6) Alabama vs. (3) Texas Tech
(7) Michigan St. vs. (2) Duke
EAST
(1) Baylor vs. (8) North Carolina
(5) St. Mary's vs. (4) UCLA
(11) Virginia Tech vs. (3) Purdue
(7) Murray St. vs. (2) Kentucky
SOUTH
(1) Arizona vs. (8) Seton Hall
(5) Houston vs. (4) Illinois
(5) Colorado St. vs. (3) Tennessee
(10) Loyola-Chicago vs. (2) Villanova
MIDWEST
(1) Kansas vs. San Diego St. (8)
(5) Iowa vs. (4) Providence
(11) Iowa St. vs. (3) Wisconsin
(7) USC vs. (2) Auburn
SWEET 16
WEST
(1) Gonzaga vs. (4) Arkansas
(3) Texas Tech vs. (2) Duke
EAST
(1) Baylor vs. (5) St. Mary's
(11).Virginia Tech vs. (7) Murray St.
SOUTH
(1) Arizona vs. (5) Houston
(3) Tennessee vs. (2) Villanova
MIDWEST
(1) Kansas vs. (5) Iowa
(3) Wisconsin vs. (2) Auburn
ELITE 8
WEST
(1) Gonzaga vs. (2) Duke
EAST
(5) St. Mary's vs. (11) Virginia Tech
SOUTH
(1) Arizona vs. (2) Villanova
MIDWEST
(5) Iowa vs. (2) Auburn
FINAL FOUR
(1) Gonzaga vs. (11) Virginia Tech
(1) Arizona vs. (2) Auburn
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
(1) Gonzaga vs. (1) Arizona
