Did The Baylor Bears Get Too Conservative Against TCU?
When the No. 4 ranked TCU Horned Frogs missed their two-point conversion that would have tied the game with 2:07 to go against the Baylor Bears, the home fans went crazy and immediately started biting their nails.
Two minutes left. TCU with all three timeouts. The Bears just needed a first down (or really, two) to put the game away, cap off one of the greatest upsets in school history, and salvage a disappointing season.
Instead, a two-yard run, a loss of two yards on a run, and a quarterback scramble that came three yards short of the line to gain gave the ball back to the Frogs with over a minute and a half remaining and only needing a field goal to win. You know what happened from there.
But now a talking point is why Jeff Grimes called two running plays right into the teeth of the TCU defense when the Frogs have to sell out for the run. Fans took to social media to say the play calling on that series effectively lost the Bears the game.
Honestly, it might have.
The first issue, and it's one I don't know if people around college football appreciate all that much even though it is a rule that has been in place for years, is the issue of how much easier it is to stop the clock in college football compared to the NFL.
Giving a team 1:34 with no timeouts in college is essentially equivalent to giving an NFL team 1:59 (no advantage of the two-minute warning) because the clock stops momentarily after every first down to reset the chains, allowing teams to sub or get to the line without burning nearly as much time as an NFL team would.
The biggest factor with the college football clock scenario is how much it opens the playbook. TCU didn't need to run plays to the sideline, they didn't need to burn every first down spiking the football, they could more or less stay in their offense.
The defense is still dropping seven or eight guys in coverage, sure, but not only could the Frogs use the middle of the field, but they could also let quarterback Max Duggan scramble.
The play that might have sunk Baylor's ship was Duggan getting out of the pocket and rushing for 12 yards to the Bear 29-yard line, firmly putting them in kicker Griffin Kell's range to hit the game-winning field goal.
If a college coach was given the option to give the ball back to a team with 1:59 and no timeouts, they absolutely would not play it conservatively, figuring they needed to do whatever they needed to do to move the chains and worry about the clock once they get a fresh set of downs.
That said, Bears coach Dave Aranda basically said his team did stay in their offense the last series, but that the offense they usually run isn't as aggressive as some people think.
He said TCU was selling out for the run for most of the game, but the Bears were effective with their 232 yards on the ground.
"I would think that [we would be more aggressive] if it wasn't for our success running the ball," Aranda said. "I was confident with us doing what had gotten us to that point."
Watching from the press box, I wasn't surprised or necessarily upset at the way they handled the series as it was happening. I would never feel confident in Baylor's chances of making the big play with the game on the line when the play comes down to Blake Shapen making a gritty throw, but that's what you have.
On the flip side, Baylor fans would likely be killing Grimes on social media had he called for passing plays on first and second down, knowing Shapen's deficiencies, and the Bears still had to punt it away to TCU and Sonny Dykes had all his timeouts in his back pocket.
With all of that in mind, maybe Baylor's issue is they don't have a go-to guy when the game is on the line and not so much on the play calling.
In 2021, the Bears had running back Abram Smith to run defenders over and close out games as well as having wide receiver Tyquan Thornton being able to get open on just about any route, anywhere on the field when you needed him to.
Before that, they had an infinitely more clutch quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Say what you want about his last season or his arm strength, Brewer was money with the game on the line and led six game-tying or game-winning drives in the fourth quarter of his career.
This year, the Bears do not have that. The coaching staff's confidence in Shapen hasn't resulted in clutch play and the two games they finished off the opponent by running the ball down their throats came against the two worst rushing defenses in the Big 12, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Maybe we are defending Grimes too much and maybe he deserves more blame, but Baylor's issues would be resolved much easier by having a true closer on their team rather than changing the offense for the third time in four seasons.
Did they get too conservative? Ultimately, no. But only because they don't have the horses in the stable to be aggressive, which is no less concerning.
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