Can Boise State still make the NCAA Tournament this season?

The Boise State men’s basketball team made three straight NCAA Tournament appearances between 2022-24 and was among the first four teams left out last season.

Heading into Saturday’s road matchup with Fresno State (12-16, 6-11), the Broncos (17-11, 9-8) are behind more than a dozen teams—including conference mates New Mexico (21-7, 12-5) and San Diego State (19-8, 13-4)—in the bubble pecking order. But Boise State may have an at-large case with a near-perfect finish.

To have any chance at an at-large bid, the Broncos must close the regular season with victories at Fresno State and Colorado State (18-10, 9-8) and at home against MWC co-leader San Diego State. Boise State is locked in a three-way tie for sixth place with the Rams and UNLV (14-14, 9-8).

The Broncos are unlikely to catch Grand Canyon (18-10, 11-6) and Nevada (19-9, 11-6) in the standings to secure a top-four seed and a first-round bye for the MWC Tournament. To clinch the MWC’s automatic NCAA Tournament bid, Boise State will almost certainly have to win four games in four days at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

If Boise State does finish 3-0 to close the regular season and earn the No. 6 seed, the Broncos would need to reach the MWC Tournament title game to be in the at-large conversation.

As of Thursday, Boise State would face No. 11 San Jose State (8-20, 3-14) in the first round. The Broncos have two double-digit victories over the Spartans this season.

Boise State would then receive another favorable matchup against No. 3 New Mexico in the quarterfinals. The Broncos also swept the Lobos in conference play, including a 91-90 victory in Albuquerque.

The semifinal round would likely be against San Diego State or Utah State. The Broncos weren’t competitive in two matchups with the Aggies but suffered a heartbreaking triple overtime loss at Viejas Center in early January.

If Boise State does all of the above and loses in the title game to San Diego State, Utah State, Grand Canyon or Nevada, the Broncos would boast a 23-12 overall record with a 15-9 mark against MWC foes.

Boise State, which currently holds a 2-6 record in NCAA NET Rankings Quad 1 games, could have more Quad 1 opportunities at the MWC Tournament. The Broncos also need Butler (No. 79 NET) to jump back into the top 75 for another Quad 1 victory.

While a long shot, Boise State’s NCAA Tournament at-large chances aren’t completely gone as March nears. But the Broncos’ best chance at an NCAA Tournament bid will be capturing their first MWC Tournament title since 2022.