Could the Mountain West receive just one NCAA Tournament bid this season?

The Mountain West is in real danger of sending just one men’s basketball team to the NCAA Tournament.

Utah State (24-6, 14-5), which leads the MWC by one game over New Mexico (22-8, 13-6) and San Diego State (19-10, 13-6), has dropped three of its last four games entering Saturday’s regular-season finale against the visiting Lobos. Tipoff is scheduled for 2 p.m. Mountain time at Smith Spectrum.

New Mexico suffered an 82-74 home loss to red-hot Colorado State (20-10, 11-8) on Wednesday, dropping the Lobos to 4-4 over their last eight games. Prior to the Colorado State game, New Mexico was among the final four teams included in Joe Lunardi’s NCAA Tournament projection.

The Aztecs have lost four of their last five games—including Tuesday’s no-show at Boise State—entering Friday’s home matchup with UNLV (16-14, 11-8).

Utah State is likely to receive an NCAA Tournament bid barring a loss on Saturday followed by a quarterfinal exit at next week’s MWC Tournament, but New Mexico and San Diego State have work to do for at-large consideration. Boise State, Colorado State, Grand Canyon (19-11, 12-7) and Nevada (19-11, 11-8) are also on the fringes of the bubble.

Here is a breakdown of the NCAA Tournament resume for each MWC bubble team:

Utah State

• NCAA NET Ranking: 28

• Quad 1 record: 3-4

• Quad 2 record: 7-1

• KenPom: 36

• Torvik: 39

New Mexico

• NCAA NET Ranking: 44

• Quad 1 record: 2-5

• Quad 2 record: 6-1

• KenPom: 49

• Torvik: 50

San Diego State

• NCAA NET Ranking: 47

• Quad 1 record: 2-6

• Quad 2 record: 5-3

• KenPom: 44

• Torvik: 44

Boise State

• NCAA NET Ranking: 58

• Quad 1 record: 2-6

• Quad 2 record: 5-3

• KenPom: 57

• Torvik: 53

Nevada

• NCAA NET Ranking: 71

• Quad 1 record: 1-5

• Quad 2 record: 5-4

• KenPom: 73

• Torvik: 79

Grand Canyon

• NCAA NET Ranking: 74

• Quad 1 record: 3-5

• Quad 2 record: 3-3

• KenPom: 64

• Torvik: 57

Colorado State

• NCAA NET Ranking: 88

• Quad 1 record: 2-4

• Quad 2 record: 4-4

• KenPom: 81

• Torvik: 86

A MWC Tournament championship is Boise State’s clearest path to a fourth NCAA Tournament berth in five seasons. The 2026 MWC Tournament will run from Wednesday, March 11 through Saturday, March 14 at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

The Broncos, who are in a four-way tie for fifth place, could fall all the way to the No. 8 seed with a loss to Colorado State on Saturday.

The top four seeds receive a first-round bye during the MWC Tournament.