Mountain West men’s basketball tournament tiebreaker scenarios

The Mountain West men’s basketball regular season will wrap up on Saturday, and only two teams are locked into their seeds for next week’s MWC Tournament: No. 11 San Jose State (8-22, 3-16) and No. 12 Air Force (3-27, 0-19).

Despite losing three of its last four games, Utah State (24-6, 14-5) can clinch the outright conference title and the No. 1 seed for the MWC Tournament with a home victory over New Mexico (22-8, 13-6) on Saturday.

The Lobos can secure the No. 1 seed with a victory in Logan. New Mexico would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with Utah State and a three-way tiebreaker with the Aggies and San Diego State (19-10, 13-6).

The Aztecs and Lobos are both in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament.

Here are the MWC’s tiebreaking rules:

Two-way tiebreaker

“If two teams tie for a position, and one holds a win-loss advantage during regular season play, that team receives the higher seed. If the two teams split their games during the regular season, each tied team’s record shall be compared against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains the advantage, thereby gaining the higher seed. If two teams remain tied after all other tie-breakers have been exhausted, the last tie-breaker to determine an advantage shall be team NET rankings.”

Three-way (or more) tiebreaker

“If three or more teams tie for a position, the combined record of each of the tied teams against the other teams involved in the tie shall be compared. If at any time during this analysis, any team(s) should gain an advantage over the other team(s) tied at that position, the team(s) holding the advantage shall continue the tiebreaking procedures. If it is reduced to a two-team tie at any point, the process shall then revert to the beginning of the tie-breaking procedures and shall be applied (in order) until the two-team tie is broken. If all three teams remain tied following the initial comparison, each tied team’s record shall be compared against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, continuing down through the standings. If at any time during this process, any team(s) should have an advantage over the other team(s) tied at that position, the team(s) holding the advantage shall assume a position higher than the other team(s). If any analysis reduces it to a two-team tie, the procedure shall revert to the two-way tie-breaker language.”

The Lobos swept Grand Canyon (19-11, 12-7) while Utah State split with the Lopes. GCU won both matchups against San Diego State.

To summarize, Utah State will be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. New Mexico can drop no further than the No. 3 seed, and San Diego State will be seeded second, third or fourth.

GCU can snag the No. 3 seed with a home victory over Fresno State (13-17, 7-12) and a San Diego State home loss to UNLV (16-14, 11-8) on Friday. The Lopes clinch a top-four seed with a win but could drop all the way to seventh with a loss.

The top four seeds receive a first-round bye.

Colorado State (20-10, 11-8), Nevada (19-11, 11-8) and UNLV could all secure the No. 4 seed with a victory and help. Due to an 0-2 record against GCU, Boise State (19-11, 11-8) is locked out of a top-four seed.

The Broncos will drop all the way to the No. 8 seed with a loss on Saturday at Colorado State. Boise State has multiple paths to the No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7 seed with a win:

No. 5 seed scenarios

• Victories by Air Force (over Nevada), Grand Canyon and San Diego State

• Victories by Grand Canyon, New Mexico and San Diego State

No. 6 seed scenarios

• Victories by Grand Canyon, New Mexico and UNLV

• Victories by Air Force, Grand Canyon and UNLV

No. 7 seed scenarios

• Victories by Fresno State, Nevada and UNLV

• Victories by GCU, Nevada, UNLV and Utah State