Boise State’s College Football Playoff odds continue to climb

Broncos favored to claim Group of Six’s automatic CFP berth

Boise State wide receivers Cam Bates (3) and Rasean Jones celebrate a touchdown. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tuesday’s reveal of the initial 2026 College Football Playoff rankings confirmed Boise State’s status as the Group of Six frontrunner. 

The Broncos (7-1, 4-0 Pac-12) were the lone Group of Six team included in the rankings, checking in at No. 25. The committee had the Broncos facing Alabama in the opening round. 

The top Group of Six team in the final CFP rankings receives an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff.

As of Wednesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Boise State at +100 to make the CFP. The Broncos were +105 last week. 

Boise State’s top competition for the Group of Six’s automatic bid is New Mexico (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West), which entered the AP Poll for the first time in program history this week at No. 22. The Lobos did not crack the CFP rankings. 

New Mexico is +215 to reach the CFP. The Lobos have upcoming road games at Nevada (2-5, 2-2) and Wyoming (5-3, 4-1) with home games against UNLV (5-3, 3-1) and Air Force (6-2, 3-2). 

American co-leader UTSA (7-1, 4-0) is also right in the mix at +600. The Roadrunners will host North Texas (6-2, 4-0), the Group of Six’s No. 4 CFP candidate at +1600, on Nov. 14. 

Oregon State’s (5-3, 3-1) CFP odds cratered from +750 to +4000 following last week’s loss to Fresno State (5-3, 2-2). The Beavers travel to Boise State on Nov. 14. 

Here is a collection of postseason projections from national writers for Pac-12 teams entering Week 10 of the 2026 college football season. 

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at BYU

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State vs. North Dakota State

Holiday Bowl: Oregon State vs. Louisville

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Kentucky  

Hawaii Bowl: Air Force vs. Texas State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Sun Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon State

Brett McMurphy, On3

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Kentucky

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV vs. Texas State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington

Sun Bowl: SMU vs. Oregon State

Bryan Fischer, Sports Illustrated

First Responder Bowl: Illinois vs. Fresno State

Hawaii Bowl: Air Force vs. Boise State

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Baylor

Puerto Rico Bowl: Toledo vs. Texas State

Brad Crawford, CBS Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Indiana

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State vs. Texas State

Holiday Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Notre Dame

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV vs. Texas State

Holiday Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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