Boise State vs. San Diego State picks, predictions for college football Week 12 matchup

Boise State and San Diego State will battle for control of the Mountain West standings on Saturday.

The showdown between MWC co-leaders Boise State (6-3, 4-1) and San Diego State (7-2, 4-1) will kick off at 8:30 p.m. Mountain time at Snapdragon Stadium.

The Aztecs are coming off a ghastly 38-6 road loss to Hawaii (7-3, 4-2). The Broncos had a bye last week after suffering a 30-7 home loss to Fresno State (6-3, 3-2).

San Diego State is a small 2.5-point favorite over Boise State, which will be without starting quarterback Maddux Madsen, leading receiver Chris Marshall and left guard Jason Steele. The over/under is set at 41.5 points.

Will Boise State be able to overcome the injuries and score enough points against San Diego State’s dominant defense to pull out a victory?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

FOX Sports: San Diego State 24, Boise State 23

Rationale: FOX Sports predictions are made using the Data Skrive betting model.

Bald Faced Truth by John Canzano: Diego State 23, Boise State 20

Rationale: “These are the two best teams in the MWC, but they’re both entering this game after a puzzling loss. Boise dropped a home game to Fresno State. The Aztecs were terrible at Hawaii. Decide for yourself what to make of those results and who you like in this game. Me? San Diego State’s defense shows up for this one. I’ll take the Aztecs.”

Dean Whitaker, Winners and Whiners: San Diego State -3

Rationale: “San Diego State feels like the right side because the Aztecs’ defense has been one of the most reliable units in the country. … Even though they were humbled by Hawaii last week, that game looks more like an outlier than a trend. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and force opponents into long, grinding possessions matches up well against a Boise State offense that has been inconsistent and turnover-prone. With Lucky Sutton anchoring the ground game and Jayden Denegal capable of bouncing back with a cleaner performance, San Diego State has the tools to dictate tempo and cover the short number at home.”

Chris Ruffolo, Sports Chat Place: San Diego State -2.5

Rationale: “I’m on San Diego State here. I just think the Broncos are not the same team from last year that made the playoffs and the Aztecs had a flop in Hawaii, but a lot of teams have gone to the island and fallen flat. I think getting back home pays dividends here, and I think the Aztecs get it done.”

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.