Realistic ceiling, floor and baseline projections for Boise State’s 2026 football season

Broncos aiming to capture fourth straight conference title

Boise State running back Dylan Riley | Boise State Athletics

Boise State and four other Mountain West schools will officially join the Pac-12 on July 1. 

The Broncos wrapped up their 16-year run in the MWC with seven titles, including a three-peat from 2023-25 under head coach Spencer Danielson. Boise State finished 12-2 overall in 2024 and reached the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. 

Here is the Broncos’ schedule for the 2026 season: 

All times listed are Mountain Daylight Time

Saturday, Sept. 5 - at Oregon, 1:30 p.m. (CBS)

Saturday, Sept. 12 - vs. Memphis, 4 p.m. (USA Network) 

Saturday, Sept. 19 - vs. South Dakota, 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

Saturday, Sept. 26 - at Western Michigan, TBD (TBD)

Saturday, Oct. 3 - vs. Utah State, 5:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) 

Saturday, Oct. 10 - at Fresno State, 8:30 p.m. (The CW)

Saturday, Oct. 24 - at Washington State, 4 p.m. (USA Network)

Saturday, Oct. 31 - vs. Texas State, 8 p.m. (The CW)

Saturday, Nov. 7 - at Colorado State, 4 p.m. (USA Network)

Saturday, Nov 14 - vs. Oregon State, 4 p.m. (USA Network) 

Saturday, Nov. 21 - vs. San Diego State, 7:30 p.m. (USA Network)

Saturday, Nov. 28 - at TBD Pac-12 flex opponent, TBD (TBD)

Here are some realistic ceiling, floor and baseline projections for the Broncos heading into the 2026 season. 

Ceiling

Outside of the Week 1 road trip to Oregon, Boise State could be favored in every game this fall. 

The Broncos followed up a strong showing at Oregon during the 2024 season with a perfect record in MWC play, earning the No. 3 seed for the CFP. That team featured Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, but the Broncos do return two potential 1,000-yard backs in Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley and Maddux Madsen at quarterback. 

If Madsen and the passing game take a big step forward this season, the Broncos could be CFP-bound with a 12-1 record. 

Floor

On the flip side, the Broncos have a few major question marks entering a brutal non-conference schedule that includes Memphis and a road trip to reigning MAC champion Western Michigan. 

Boise State has multiple starters to replace at wide receiver, offensive line and defensive back. Interior defensive line depth is also a concern heading into the summer. 

If the Broncos can’t solve those issues, a 1-3 start is on the table. Boise State could also lose back-to-back road games against Fresno State and Washington State and struggle to match up with San Diego State. In a worst-case scenario, the Broncos could need a final-week victory to reach bowl eligibility. 

Baseline

Despite its MWC dominance, Boise State has lost four or more games in four of the last five seasons. The Broncos are 46-22 during the stretch (68 percent winning percentage), which is likely a solid baseline for the upcoming season. 

A 9-4 record (69 percent) after the Pac-12 championship game feels like the baseline projection for the 2026 Broncos. To finish above that mark, Boise State must go 3-1 in non-conference play.