What Boise State must do to upset No. 2 Oregon

The college football world does not expect Boise State to compete with second-ranked Oregon in Week 1 of the 2026 college football season.

The Ducks, who will host Boise State at 1:30 p.m. Mountain time on Saturday, Sept. 5, are a massive 24.5-point favorite at Autzen Stadium. Oregon is -4000 on the moneyline while the Broncos are +1400.

If Boise State is going to pull off the monumental upset next week, here are four things head coach Spencer Danielson’s team must accomplish in a hostile environment.

1. Protect the football

Boise State was careless with the football in its five losses last year, turning the ball over 15 times with just one takeaway. Unsurprisingly, the -14 turnover differential led to an average margin of defeat of 21.8 points.

To have any chance at covering the 24.5-point spread—let alone scoring an outright upset—at Autzen Stadium, the Broncos must protect the football while creating multiple takeaways on defense or special teams.

Boise State cannot lose the turnover battle and stay in the game against one of college football’s most talented rosters.

2. Win the time of possession battle

Oregon’s explosive offense features several scary skill position players, including quarterback Dante Moore, wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart and tight end Jamari Johnson.

The best defense against the high-flying Ducks is a strong running game that can pick up first downs and churn the clock.

The Broncos need to run the football with star tailbacks Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines and keep Oregon’s dangerous offense on the sideline.

3. Hold up on both lines

Oregon might have the best defensive line in the country and a retooled offensive line with multiple NFL Draft prospects.

Two of Boise State’s biggest question marks entering the 2026 season are depth on the offensive line and defensive tackle.

The Broncos need to find a way to be competitive up front or risk falling into an insurmountable hole at Autzen Stadium.

4. No special teams gaffs

Boise State has been woeful on special teams over the last two seasons, including a road loss to the Ducks in September 2024. The Broncos allowed two return touchdowns with a missed field goal in the 37-34 loss.

Special teams have remained a concern in fall camp with an ongoing battle at kicker between erratic senior Colton Boomer and sophomore Canaan Moore.

The Broncos need flawless execution from all special teams units to pull off a monumental road upset of the Ducks.

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