What No. 23 Boise State vs. Fresno State expert picks tell us to expect in Milk Can rivalry game

No. 23 Boise State will attempt to snap a three-game losing streak against archrival Fresno State on Saturday.

Kickoff between the Broncos (4-1, 1-0 Pac-12) and Bulldogs (4-1, 1-0) for the Milk Can trophy is slated for 8:30 p.m. Mountain time at Valley Children’s Stadium. The rivalry game will air live nationally on The CW.

Both teams have ripped off four consecutive victories following Week 1 road losses to ranked Big Ten opponents. Boise State suffered a competitive 34-27 loss to No. 13 Oregon while Fresno State was shut out by No. 19 USC, 39-0.

Boise State, the frontrunner to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff, is favored by 6.5 points over the Bulldogs in the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos are -250 on the moneyline while Fresno State is +205.

The over/under is set at 48.5 points.

Can the Broncos avenge last year’s 30-7 loss on The Blue and pick up their first victory over Fresno State since 2022?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

Leger Douzable, CBS Sports: Under 48.5

Douzable’s rationale: “I think this is going to be a low-scoring game. The one thing about Fresno State and that defense, they will turn you over.”

Analysis: Douzable noted that the Bulldogs have forced two or more turnovers in four of their five games this season. He expects a close game at Valley Children’s Stadium with a potential seven-point Boise State victory.

Danny Kanell, CBS Sports: Fresno State moneyline (+205)

Kanell’s rationale: “Dylan Riley is awesome … but I think Fresno State’s defense is able to contain him. … I think the wrong team is favored here.”

Analysis: Kanell is banking on Fresno State’s recent dominance of Boise State being an important factor in Saturday’s game.

Cam Mellor, Pro Football Network: Boise State -6.5

Mellor’s rationale: “Boise doesn’t need to only win these games in the Pac-12, they need to win them convincingly. And I think Spencer Danielson and company know that.”

Analysis: Mellor loves the Dylan Riley-led rushing attack and believes quarterback Maddux Madsen will also be able to attack Fresno State’s defense through the air. He feels the betting line is too low for a team with multiple playmakers on offense.

Nikos Lagouretos, PickDawgz: Fresno State +6.5

Lagouretos’ rationale: “Fresno has covered the spread in its last four games and has a superior defense, allowing (4.2) points per game less than Boise.”

Analysis: Lagouretos believes the Bulldogs have turned the corner following a brutal Week 1 showing at USC. He also points to Fresno State’s scoring defense, which has been more effective than Boise State’s through five games.

○ Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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