What has to happen for Boise State to reach College Football Playoff contention again

The College Football Playoff expanded from four to 12 teams for the 2024 season, giving more teams the opportunity to compete for a national title.

The timing of the CFP changes worked perfectly for Boise State, which finished the 2024 regular season with a 12-1 overall record. The Broncos were awarded the No. 3 overall seed and a first-round bye for the CFP before falling to Penn State in a Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal, 31-14.

Boise State was not in the CFP mix last year despite capturing a third straight Mountain West championship. Following a blowout loss to Washington in the LA Bowl, the Broncos finished the season with a 9-5 overall record.

As Boise State prepares to enter the Pac-12 next month alongside four other MWC alumni, here are three things that need to happen for the Broncos to contend for a CFP berth in 2026.

1. Strong Week 1 showing

In Week 2 of the 2024 season, Boise State rode the wave of a near-upset of Oregon to a CFP first-round bye. Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns as Oregon erased a fourth-quarter deficit to secure a 37-34 victory.

The Broncos are set to open the 2026 season at Oregon, which returns Heisman contender Dante Moore at quarterback and several other impact pieces. The Ducks have made back-to-back CFP appearances under head coach Dan Lanning.

While an upset of Oregon would send shockwaves throughout the nation, Boise State needs a competitive showing on national TV (1:30 p.m. Mountain time kickoff on CBS) for its CFP resume. Anything more would be a bonus.

2. Maddux Madsen makes the leap

One of the most experienced players in college football, Madsen has appeared in 35 games with 26 starts at quarterback for Boise State. He is 507 of 834 (61 percent) passing for his career with 61 total touchdowns—50 passing, 11 rushing—and 18 interceptions.

Madsen’s numbers took a step back last season as the quarterback missed three full games due to injury. He finished the year 176 of 302 passing (58 percent) for 2,334 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine picks.

Madsen was the starter in four of Boise State’s five losses and completed 55 of 103 (54 percent) passes for 487 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions. In his five career appearances against Power Four opponents, Madsen has two passing touchdowns and nine picks.

If Madsen and the wide receivers can improve their big-game performance, Boise State should have a deadly offense with returning running backs Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley anchoring the ground game.

3. Rebuilt offensive line gels

Boise State has two key starters to replace on the offensive line in left tackle Kage Casey and center Mason Randolph. Casey was drafted in the fourth round by the Denver Broncos while Randolph received rookie minicamp invitations from the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints.

Tyler Ethridge, a transfer from Division II Colorado State-Pueblo, is expected to take over for Casey at left tackle. Redshirt freshman Stewart Taufa is the favorite to start at center.

If Ethridge and Taufa can gel with returnees Jason Steele (left guard), Roger Carreon (right guard) and Daylon Metoyer (right tackle), Boise State could have a CFP-worthy offensive line in 2026.

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