What No. 2 Oregon means for Boise State’s CFP hopes in 2026

Ducks are No. 2 in both preseason polls

Boise State's Boen Phelps. | Boise State Athletics

Will this finally be the year Oregon breaks through and captures the program’s first championship? 

Rated the best college football program without a national title in a recent piece by Antonio Morales of The New York Times, the Ducks have reached the College Football Playoff in back-to-back seasons under head coach Dan Lanning. 

Loaded on both sides of the ball with one of college football’s most expensive rosters, Oregon checked in at No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll and Coaches Poll. Boise State was the top Group of Six vote-earner in both preseason polls. 

The Week 1 showdown between Boise State and Oregon at Autzen Stadium could be viewed as a freeroll for the Broncos, who are eying a return trip to the CFP in Year 1 of the new Pac-12. 

Boise State is a 24.5-point underdog in the game, the same number of points Stanford is catching at home against No. 7 Miami. The Hurricanes reached the CFP championship game last season while Stanford hasn’t won more than four games since 2018, including a 4-8 record in 2025. 

The Broncos are a bigger Week 1 underdog than Oregon State at No. 23 Houston (20.5 points), Fresno State at No. 14 USC (22.5 points) and Washington State at No. 17 Washington (23.5 points). 

Boise State has nothing to lose

The college football cognoscenti expect Boise State to get run off the field at Autzen Stadium. And if that happens, the Broncos could still make the CFP. 

Last September, Tulane suffered a noncompetitive 45-10 loss to Ole Miss. The Green Wave was also blown out by UTSA but recovered to win the American Conference and receive a CFP bid with an 11-2 record. 

A strong showing could change the conversation

If the Broncos surpass expectations and cover the spread in Week 1, head coach Spencer Danielson’s team will remain in the thick of the CFP discussion. 

Boise State enters the 2026 season at +450 to make the CFP, the 23rd-best odds nationally and the leader among Group of Six teams. The highest-ranked Group of Six champion receives an automatic bid to the playoff. 

Boise State has done this before

The Broncos parlayed a competitive 37-34 loss to Oregon in Week 2 of the 2024 season into a Mountain West title and CFP berth. 

Oregon defensive coordinator said the Ducks are well aware of Boise State’s ability to put points on the board. 

“Boise State’s an unbelievable football team,” Hampton told Ducks Wire last week. “I don’t think there’ll be anything we can hold back. I mean, those guys almost beat us last time they came here. I think we have to unload, you know, if that makes sense. I don’t think there's anything you can say ‘hold back.’”

With zero exceptions from the outside world, Boise State fans should view the Week 1 showdown as a pressureless opportunity. The downside of a blowout is minimal, and a competitive showing could lead to another dream season.  

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.