Early ESPN SP+ rankings show Boise State on top of new Pac-12

Boise State ended its run in the Mountain West with three consecutive football conference championships.

According to ESPN’s initial SP+ projections, the Broncos are a prohibitive favorite to capture another title this fall in the first season of the new Pac-12.

Boise State checked in at No. 39 nationally in the first edition of the 2026 SP+ projections, which were released on Friday.

The Broncos are the highest-ranked Group of Six team in the metric. The top Group of Six team in the final College Football Playoff rankings receives an automatic bid to the CFP.

ESPN’s SP+ projections are a reflection of returning production, recent recruiting, recent history and coaching change effects.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State are all exiting the MWC this summer to link up with current members Oregon State and Washington State and Sun Belt alumnus Texas State. Gonzaga, which does not compete in football, is also joining the conference.

The new Pac-12 is expected to be top-heavy in Year 1 as no other members cracked the top 70 of the SP+ projections.

San Diego State, which finished 9-4 overall last year and lost out on a four-way tiebreaker for a MWC title game berth to Boise State and UNLV, is No. 71 in the SP+ projections. Fresno State is next at No. 78, followed by Washington State (No. 85), Texas State (No. 89), Oregon State (No. 91), Utah State (No. 97) and Colorado State (No. 99).

Washington State (Kirby Moore), Oregon State (JaMarcus Shephard) and Colorado State (Jim Mora) all have new coaches.

Moore, the younger brother of former Boise State quarterback and current New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore, was previously the offensive coordinator at Missouri. Shephard, also a first-time head coach, was the co-offensive coordinator at Alabama. The 64-year-old Mora is a veteran coach who ended his run at UConn with consecutive nine-win seasons.

The Pac-12 is rated as the fifth-best conference in the SP+ projections with an average rating of -3.7, coming in behind the SEC (14.5), Big Ten (11.0), Big 12 (7.4) and ACC (6.4) but well above the Mountain West (-8.2) and American (-8.2).

UNLV, which has fallen to Boise State in the last three MWC title games, is the highest-rated MWC team at No. 59. New Mexico, the other loser in last year’s four-way tie, is right behind the Rebels at No. 68.

Memphis is the top American team in the SP+ projections at No. 70. Boise State will host the Tigers on Saturday, Sept. 12.