Hockey East Power Rankings: End of January Edition
Photo by BCEagles.com
The college hockey season is more than half over, and the Hockey East playoff picture is starting to take shape. Even though a mere seven points separate the first and ninth-place teams in the conference, there certainly some tiers developing among the teams. Boston College and Massachusetts appear headed for a dogfight for the top seed in Hockey East. Next up is the quartet of UMass Lowell, Providence, Northeastern and New Hampshire who could very well challenge for an NCAA Tournament berth. Boston University and one of UConn and Maine will likely round out the top eight in the conference, but will need an auto berth to sneak into the tournament. Then there’s Merrimack. They could get hot and find a way into the eighth spot, but in terms of talent they are behind the top nine. Lastly we have Vermont. The poor Catamounts are 0-11-2 in conference. Stranger things have happened, but it’d be a fairly safe bet to declare their season over.
1. Boston College - Despite dropping back-to-back games in overtime to Maine, BC is still the team to beat. The Eagles are 15-7-0 and rank fifth in the pairwise. They still have the best offense in the conference, even if it didn’t show up against Maine. And Spencer Knight is still playing at an elite level. The one concern, and it’s a big one, is if BC’s defense can limit breakdowns and lapses. Drew Helleson has been strong on the blue line, but the rest of the unit remains shaky in the defensive zone. BC will be tested over the next month, with games against UMass and UMass Lowell, as well as the two Beanpot contests.
2. UMass - At least the Eagles barely lost any ground over the weekend, as the first place Minutemen only secured one point in a series against UNH. UMass’ defense, led by the stellar goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Filip Lindberg, continues to impress. Both goalies hold a sub-two goals against average. The offensive production has dipped this season without Cale Makar, but 3.27 goals per game is still solid. One concern is the power play, which was otherworldly last season, but sits at a success rate of just 12 percent this season.
3. New Hampshire - I’m going to be honest: I can’t name a single player on the Wildcats. Yet, Mike Souza’s squad is playing remarkably well. They’re the only team in the conference that’s defeated both BC and UMass. In fact, they’re undefeated against both teams, posting a 3-0-1 record against Hockey East’s two best teams. UNH also boasts wins over Providence and Northeastern. It’s weird too, because they rank in the bottom half of the conference in both scoring offense and defense. But they check in at No. 3 based off of strength of record.
4. Providence - The Friars tied Cornell earlier in the month. That’s impressive, very impressive. The top-ranked Big Red are 14-1-4, so pulling out even a tie speaks volumes about Providence’s ability to step up in big moments. They’ve fallen behind BC in scoring offense but still have two of the top forwards in the nation. Jack Dugan leads the nation with 42 points and has 10 more assists than any other player in college hockey. Tyce Thompson, the recipient of many of Dugan’s assists, is second in the nation with 17 goals.
5. UMass Lowell - The River Hawks are in a bit of a slump, and so is star goaltender Tyler Wall. They’re 3-3-1 in January, and Wall has given up three or more goals in four of those games. He’s going to have to bounce back if the River Hawks want to have any shot at making a run this season, as the offense ranks in the bottom half of the conference.
6. Northeastern - I don’t know what to make of Northeastern. Maybe it’s because the Huskies are one of two teams in conference, along with Merrimack, that BC hasn’t faced yet. Clearly BC and UMass are in a class of their own. UNH, Providence and UML all rank above NU, because it’s easy to identify one aspect of their respective games that they excel at. For UNH, it’s beating good teams. For Providence, it’s two scorers who are right now better than anyone in Hockey East. And for UML, it’s excellent goaltending from Wall. Northeastern, by contrast, doesn’t have anything that jumps out at you and makes you think they’re a serious contender. The 4-6 range seems like a good spot for the Huskies to finish in the standings, with a slight edge to the lower side of that projection.
7. Boston University - It could be recency bias, or the fact that teams always show up for rivalry games, but BU looks more impressive than I thought. The big problem is the goaltending; the Terriers haven’t been able to effectively replace Jake Oettinger. Sam Tucker got the bulk of the starts but has been benched in three of the last four in favor of Ashton Amos. While he could be the future, Amos isn’t quite on the same level as fellow freshman goalie Spencer Knight. One thing the Terriers do have going for them: Trevor Zegras may be the most NHL-ready player in college hockey. He’s a likely one-and-done, but when BU enters the Hockey East Tournament in March needing victories, the team can rest assured that the best player on the ice will be wearing red and white.
8. Maine - The Black Bears are tied for the last spot in the Hockey East Tournament after a four-point weekend at BC. Jeremy Swayman is having his best collegiate season between the pipes. Mitchell Fossier has developed into one of the best playmakers in the nation. The schedule isn’t bad down the stretch, with two against both Merrimack and Vermont. A mid-February weekend series against UConn could go a long way towards deciding the last team in.
9. UConn - Speaking of UConn, the Huskies are on par with Maine, but the Black Bears get the slight edge for being the hotter team. Whereas Maine recently swept BC, UConn finished in last place of the inaugural Connecticut Ice Tournament. No player has double digit goals and only two have reached 10 assists. Yet, UConn is sixth in the conference in scoring offense, a testament to the depth on the roster.
10. Merrimack - The Warriors are, somewhat surprisingly, only three points out of a tie for the eight spot in Hockey East. They’re kind of the anti-Maine in the sense that very few of their points have come against Hockey East’s best. They haven’t played BC or Providence but are winless against UMass, Northeastern, Lowell and BU. What’s worse: they just went to overtime in two-straight games against Vermont. One ended up being a win, the other a tie, but it shouldn’t have been that difficult against a team that came into the weekend with one lonely conference point.
11. Vermont - Another month without a Hockey East win for the Catamounts. Hey, at least they doubled their Hockey East points with that tie against Merrimack. They did win back-to-back out-of-conference games against Union and Lake Superior State just before the New Year, but they are still just 3-15-4 on the season. With 42 goals, Vermont is tied for third fewest in the nation; two of the teams behind them, Brown and Princeton, have four games in hand to make up that point production. Vermont could realistically finish the season with the worst scoring offense in college hockey. To put the offense in perspective, Ace Cowans leads the team with six goals and Jacques Bouquot has the most points with 12.