Cal Is the Epitome of a Bubble Team for NCAA Tournament

Cal’s road win over Miami on Saturday improved the Bears’ chances of earning berth in the NCAA tournament. They are now painfully close as of Sunday, according to the people who make a living projecting the 68-team field.

But we say “painfully” because the four experts we site all have Cal just barely on the outside looking in at this point. All four have Cal right on the cusp of being in the NCAA tournament at this point – the definition of a bubble team.

Cal has a NET ranking of No. 51 as of Sunday, and the Bears are 16-6 overall and 4-5 in the ACC. But more significantly the Bears have won three of their last four games, and it would be four out of four if Justin Pippen had made an open three-point shot at the buzzer against Florida State. What is notable is that Cal was the underdog in all four of those games, beating North Carolina at home and Stanford and Miami on the road.

Cal was a 15.5-point underdog against North Carolina, a 4.5-point underdog against Stanford, a 3.5-point underdog against Florida State and a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday at Miami.

Cal has nine games left before the ACC tournament, starting with this week’s home games against Georgia Tech on Wednesday and 22nd-ranked Clemson on Saturday. As far as Cal’s chances for an NCAA tournament berth are concerned a loss to Georgia Tech would be considered a bad loss while a victory over Clemson would be labeled a good win. At this point, all that’s left for Cal as we enter February are bad losses and good wins.

So here’s how four experts see Cal’s situation regarding NCAA tournament projections:

The most respected of the so-called Bracketologists is Joe Lunardi of ESPN. His projections Saturday night put Cal among the First Four Out, with an arrow indicating Cal’s status is on the rise. Another ACC school, Virginia Tech, is also among the First Four Out, along with Santa Clara and Seton Hall. Miami is listed among the last four teams with a first-round bye.

pic.twitter.com/pN9RiE07eW
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 1, 2026

The CBS Sports projections posted Sunday morning also have Cal among its First Four Out, although the other three in CBS Sports First Four Out are Oklahoma State, TCU and Ohio State.

On3 also lists Cal among the First Four Out, but has Seton Hall, San Diego State and Washington as the other three members of that category, while Ohio State and Santa Clara are in placed in the Last Four In grouping.

Finally, College Football News, which does research and reporting on college basketball, does not include Cal in its First Four Out, but has the Bears in a more interesting group labeled “True Bubble Teams: aka, these four are probably closer to being in than we have them.”

Cal is put in that group along with Butler, George Mason and Missouri.

One common theme exists in these projections: They can’t agree on which teams are right on the cusp of being in the NCAA tournament, but they all agree that Cal is one of those teams.

So it may come down to the minutiae of selection criteria that determines whether Cal earns its first NCAA tournament berth since 2016.

We all know that NET ranking is a factor and a NET ranking of 51 puts Cal right on the border. We also know that strength of schedule is a factor, and Cal ranks low in that category, so that won't help the Bears. Victories over Quadrant 1 teams is an important piece of data, but it is a moving target. Quadrant 1 wins are defined as home games against top-30 teams, neutral-site games against top-50, or away games against top-75 teams.

Cal's wins over UCLA, North Carolina and Miami count as Quadrant 1 wins at the moment, but the victory over Stanford does not -- at least not now.

There are several other criteria selection committee members can consider, and one of those is Wins Against Bubble, or WAB. Don’t ask us how it’s calculated but it's designed to determine the expected winning percentage for an average bubble team. Or something like that.

Cal is, quite simply, a bubble team.

Perhaps the play of the day Saturday, from a most unlikely player:

DK Denial ❌😤#GoBears | #ThroughAndThrough pic.twitter.com/AOz8810qeL
— Cal Basketball (@CalMBBall) February 1, 2026