Pac-12 Basketball Notes: Who's In NCAA Tourney? Bill Walton Experience, Etc.

We take on two subjects to start this week's notebook:

WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT?

Predicting which Pac-12 teams are assured NCAA tournament berths seems particularly difficult this year.

At this point we can only go by the NCAA tournament projections provided by various reputable sites, which have wildly different opinions about the status of Pac-12 teams. For example, CBS Sports has Colorado as a No. 12 seed and one of the last four teams to get in, while ESPN and Sports Illustrated have the Buffaloes safely in as a No. 7 seed.

So we took the average seeds of five reputable sites – CBS Sports, NCAA.com (Andy Katz), Sports Illustrated, USA Today and ESPN – for the five Pac-12 teams in the running for NCAA Tournament berths. All were updated Tuesday with the exception of CBS Sports which was updated Monday.

Here’s what we found:

Stanford: Cardinal is not included in the NCAA field in any of the five projections, although it is listed as one of the first four out in four of them and one of the next four out in the fifth.

Colorado: 8.4 average seeding, with a low of 12.

Oregon; 9.0 average seeding, with a low of 10 in two of them, including CBS Sports, which did not include the loss to USC.

UCLA: 8.4 average seeding, with a low of 10.

USC: 4.4 average seeding, with a low of 6 by CBS Sports, which did not include the win over Oregon.

Conclusion: Only USC is completely safe.

All 30 conferences are still scheduled to hold conference tournaments, and you must remember that upsets in conference tournaments could take away berths projected for other teams. For example, if Saint Mary’s should win the West Coast Conference tournament, the Gaels would get an NCAA berth, but Gonzaga and BYU would presumably get at-large berths, giving the WCC three NCAA berths instead of two and eliminating one of the projected “last four in.”

The added complication is that teams like Gonzaga and BYU might opt out of the WCC tournament, as suggested by the Oregonian’s John Canzano last week:

Gonzaga and BYU are weighing whether they should opt out of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament.

Nothing in it for either program, except risk of injury, bad loss and infection. They’re both NCAA Tournament bound regardless. WCC ADs are talking about this.
— John Canzano (@johncanzanobft) February 16, 2021

Those two teams figure they will get into the NCAA tournament whether they win the WCC tournament or not, so why should they play in the WCC tournament and risk injury or a virus-related quarantine that would ruin their postseason possibilities. In that case, another WCC team would win the conference tournament and get the automatic berth – or would the NCAA allow that?

So far no team in the Pac-12 has suggested it will opt out of the Pac-12 tournament – for one good reason: USC is the only Pac-12 team that seems to have a berth locked up.

Considering all the conference-tournament ramifications and other considerations this season, we should assume that any team currently seeded eighth or lower in the various projections is not yet guaranteed an NCAA tournament berth. UCLA, Colorado and Oregon all fit into that category, so they all may need to win some more games to ensure they get in.

Stanford got a boost when the NCAA ruled that the games it played in Santa Cruz, Calif., count as neutral-court games instead of home game, improving their case. But the Cardinal still has little chance of making the 68-team field unless it wins its final three games against Oregon, Oregon State and USC. Even that might not be enough unless Stanford does well in the Pac-12 tournament.

One other factor that is unique to the 2020-21 season: Conferences have the option to declare that their regular-season champions rather than their tournament champions will earn the conference’s automatic berth to the NCAA tournament. The deadline for conferences to make that choice is Friday.

THE 10-STEP PROCESS OF ADJUSTING TO THE BILL WALTON EXPERIENCE

Step 1: Upon learning several years ago that Bill Walton will do color commentary on Pac-12 basketball games, there is anticipation of high-level assessments from the second best player in college basketball history.

Step 2: The first time listening to the Bill Walton experience, the viewer comes away with one thought: Is this guy out of his mind?

Step 3: Viewer realizes that this is his shtick and tries to adjust.

Step 4: You become agitated that he seldom pays much attention to the game, then provides bombastic hyperbole for a given play.

Step 5: You throw stuff at the TV because Walton is talking about the Grateful Dead instead of a team’s rally from 15 points down

Step 6: You sit back and laugh.

Step 7: You gain respect for play-by-play man Dave Pasch for learning how to deal with Walton. The first few times they worked together Pasch seemed completely befuddled. Now he handles it with aplomb.

Step 8: You know to press “mute” if it’s a game you care about, knowing you can put the sound back on if the game becomes a blowout so you can enjoy the Bill Walton experience.

Step 9: Learn to appreciate Pasch’s quiet asides, which are often subtle, clever digs at Walton.

Step 10: You have nothing to do on a Saturday afternoon so you tune in and ride the Bill Walton experience, perhaps counting how many times he says “conference of champions” or “throw it down” or asks Pasch his name, knowing Walton genuinely seems like a nice guy trying to add entertainment.

We forge ahead to our weekly categories:

Top Five Teams (at the Moment)

---1. USC (19-4, 13-3) – The Trojans were impressive on Monday but must play at altitude on Thursday against Colorado, which beat USC by 10 earlier this season.

---2. UCLA (16-5, 12-3) – Overcoming a seven-point deficit with less than four minutes left against Arizona State was big for Bruins.

---3. Oregon (14-5, 9-4) – We are going to chalk up that one-sided loss to USC as an anomaly with Will Richardson, Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi on the court together.

---4. Colorado (17-7, 11-6) – We’ll see what the Buffaloes are made of this week as they host USC and UCLA.

---5. Stanford (14-9, 10-7) – The Cardinal has beaten Arizona twice, so Stanford earns the fifth spot ahead of the Wildcats. Two of Stanford’s last three games are against Oregon and USC.

Pac-12 player-of-the-year-standings

---1. Evan Mobley, USC (16.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks) – Despite his mediocre numbers in Monday’s win (11 points, 5 rebounds), Mobley takes over the top spot for the first time thanks to his team’s success.

---2. Oscar da Silva, Stanford (18.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.0 blocks) – His foul trouble may have cost Stanford the game against Washington State.

---3. McKinley Wright IV, Colorado (14.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists) – Yes, McKinley does it all, but when he scores, Buffaloes win.

---4. Chris Duarte, Oregon (16.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 53% FG – Duarte has reached his scoring average just once in the past four games.

---5. Remy Martin, Arizona State (20.3 points, 3.9 assists) – I know the Sun Devils are 5-8 in the conference, and UCLA’s Tyger Campbell probably deserves this spot, but Martin has scored more than 22 points in six straight games. He helped the Sun Devils beat Washington by 33 points with neither Marcus Bagley nor Josh Christopher available.

Pac-12 freshman-of-the-year standings

---1. Evan Mobley, USC (16.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks) – Looks like a top-five NBA draft pick to me.

---2. Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona (12.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 50.7% FG) – He’s scored 16 points or more in five of the past six games.

---3. Josh Christopher, Arizona State (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds) – Christopher has missed the past four games with leg and back injuries.

---4. Marcus Bagley, Arizona State (11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds) – He has not played since Jan. 30.

---5. Efe Abogidi, Washington State (9.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks) – Solid games recently boost Abogidi past Bennedict Mathurin and Zaire Williams, both of whom have done little recently.

Pac-12 Player of the Week

---Winner: Noah Williams, Washington State – Williams had a mediocre 12 points in the loss to Washington, but then had 32 and 40 points in wins over Cal and Stanford. And he led the two wins with Isaac Bonton, the team’s top scorer, sidelined with ankle injuries.

Team on the Rise

---Washington State (14-10, 7-10 Pac-12) – The Cougars are 5-3 over their past eight games, including wins over Oregon, UCLA and Stanford.

Team on the Skids

---Utah (9-10, 6-9 Pac-12) – Utes have lost three in a row, and USC and UCLA are their next two opponents.

Team on a Mystery Tour

---Arizona (15-8, 9-8) – The Wildcats have lost four of their past six games, but they were impressive in Saturday’s win over USC. We can’t predict what Arizona will do in its final three games. (Ineligible for the postseason, Arizona won’t play in the Pac-12 tournament.)

………………..

Numbers of Note

10 – Years it has been since Washington State finished the regular season with a winning record. The Cougars are 14-10 with three games left before the Pac-12 tournament.

72 – Points scored by Washington State’s Noah Williams in the Cougars’ trip to the Bay Area against Cal and Stanford.

10-0 – Colorado’s record when McKinley Wright IV scores 16 points or more.

7-7 – Colorado’s record when Wright scores 15 points or fewer.

4 – Consecutive games Arizona State will play against the Washington schools, starting with Tuesday’s win over Washington. All four games are in Tempe, Ariz.

12 – Number of shots Oregon missed against USC on Monday before the Ducks made their first field goal.

15 – Points USC scored before Oregon scored its first point in that game.

5 -- Years it has been since a player from a team that did not finish first won the Pac-12 player of the year. (Jakob Poltl won in 2016 when Utah finished second.)

12 – Number of years it has been since a player from a team that did not finish first or second in the Pac-12/Pac-10 won conference player of the year. (James Harden won in 2009 when Arizona State finished third.)

16 – Number of years it’s been since a player from a team that did not finish in the top three in the final Pac-10/Pac-12 standings won conference player of the year. (Arizona State's Ike Diogu won in 2005 even though his Sun Devils finished 7-11. Diogu led the conference in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots that season.)

10:46 – Time left in the second half of Stanford’s game against Washington State when the Cardinal’s Oscar da Silva attempted his first shot of the game.

Quotes of the Week

---“We were just stuck in the mud.” Oregon coach Dana Altman after his team’s 72-58 loss to USC on Monday.

---“He hit those threes and it was 9-0 before I could even get a drink of water.” -- Altman on the three three-point shots USC’s Tahj Eaddy made in the first two minutes of the game.

---“We’re showing we’re one of the best teams in the country.” -- Eaddy

---“His family, especially his sisters, are so very happy for him, but it ain’t 43.” – Guy Williams, after his son, Noah, scored 32 for Washington State against Cal last Thursday, reminding everyone how many Guy Williams once scored for the Cougars.

---“There are a few more gray hairs watching a couple of shots.” -- Washington State coach Kyle Smith, on Noah Williams’ shot selection while scoring 40 points against Stanford.

---“Every coach, at least in our coaching circle, we go with the one, 10 and this year 14 [wins] was the magic number. Then it’s 20 and 25, then, God forbid if you ever get to 30, it’s time to retire.” – Washington State coach Kyle Smith after getting his 14th win of the season.

Top Upcoming Game This Week

---Saturday, February 27, at Colorado Events Center, 7 p.m., ESPN2 – UCLA (16-5, 12-3 Pac-12) vs. Colorado (17-7, 11-6 Pac-12) – UCLA beat Colorado by three points earlier, but this one is at altitude, and both teams need the win for NCAA tournament purposes.

Cover photo of USC's Evan Mobley by Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA TODAY Sports

Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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