Experts Put Three Pac-12 Teams in NCAA Tournament, Leave Oregon Out

The chances for Pac-12 teams to get NCAA tournament berths seems fairly straightforward: Arizona, USC and UCLA are in, Oregon is on the bubble, and no other team has a shot unless it wins the Pac-12 tournament, as Oregon State did last year..

If you want to look at the dozens of sites that post NCAA tournament field projections, go to Bracket Matrix.

But for our purposes we’ll focus on the three bracketologists that get the most exposure and seem to be the most reliable: Joe Lunardi of ESPN, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, and Scott Gleeson of USA Today.

Here is how each of the three placed the Pac-12 teams in the hunt for an NCAA tournament berth

Arizona:

ESPN: No. 1 seed

CBS Sports: No. 1 seed

USA Today: No. 1 seed

Despite Arizona’s 16-point loss to Colorado on Saturday, the Wildcats still own a No. 1 seed, and it is noteworthy that Joe Lunardi has Arizona as the No. 2 overall seed, thanks, no doubt, to the fact that Arizona is still No. 2 in the NET rankings. If the Wildcats lose either of their home games this week, against Cal and Stanford, they would drop out the top seed, but Arizona is unbeaten at home and Cal and Stanford both have losing conference records.

UCLA

CBS Sports: No. 5 seed

ESPN: No. 4 seed

USA Today: No. 4 seed

UCLA’s road loss to Oregon did not hurt the Bruins’ seeding much, and UCLA still has a strong NET ranking of No. 13. That convincing win over Arizona probably carries a lot of weight too.

USC

CBS Sports: No. 6 seed

ESPN: Not among top four seeds

USA Today: No. 6 seed

It is interesting that USC is projected to have a lower seed than UCLA even though USC is ranked ahead of the Bruins in this week’s AP poll, has a better overall record than the Bruins (25-4 to 21-6), has a better conference records than UCLA (14-4 to 13-5) and beat UCLA in their only meeting this season. One significant factor in UCLA’s favor are the NET rankings: UCLA is 13th and USC is 26th. NET rankings take margin of victory into account, so lopsided wins and close losses are looked at favorably by the NET rankings. The Trojans are 7-0 in games decided by five pointers or fewer and the Bruins are 1-3 in those close games. USC and UCLA are scheduled to meet for a second time on March 5.

Oregon

ESPN: First four out

CBS Sports: First four out

USA Today: Next four out (after the first four out)

The Ducks are right there, teetering on the brink of getting a berth. If they had defeated USC on Saturday, they would probably be among the last four in. Oregon’s final two regular-season games are on the road this week against Washington and Washington State. Winning those games won’t help the Ducks a great deal, but losing either would hurt significantly.

Other Considerations:

Two things to remember when gauging whether Oregon will get a berth.

1. What other bubble teams do in their remaining games matters just as much as what Oregon does. For example, San Diego State’s game Monday night (Feb. 28) against Wyoming will have an effect on Oregon’s NCAA chances. So will North Carolina’s game against Syracuse tonight, Indiana’s game against Rutgers on Wednesday, and countless other matchups over the next few days.

2. You can assume that the last two or three teams (maybe more) projected to make the 68-team field at-large teams won’t make the NCAA tournament because of upsets in conference tournaments. For example, if, say, Arizona State wins the Pac-12 tournament, the Sun Devils would get an automatic NCAA tournament berth, taking away a spot that would have gone to the last at-large team projected to make the field. Such upsets are bound to happen in some conference tournaments. So teams in the “Last four in” category are in jeopardy of getting pushed out of a berth, and teams under the “First four out” label have considerable catching up to do.

Here is what ESPN Insider John Gasaway wrote about Oregon's status while putting the Ducks in the "Work to do" category::

If it's possible to not make the NCAA tournament after coming within a possession of a season sweep of both USC and UCLA, the team to pull that off is Oregon. The Ducks already had the sweep of the Bruins in their pockets and were poised to do the same to the Trojans, until Drew Peterson drained a 3-pointer with 14 seconds remaining. The one-point loss at home to Southern California leaves Dana Altman's team 18-11. The second win over UCLA had lifted Oregon as high as some "first four out" lists, but the path to a bid now looks more daunting. That course will likely have to start with road wins against both Washington and Washington State. (updated Feb. 26)

Colorado?

One team missing from consideration is Colorado, and you might expect the Buffaloes to at least be in the discussion for an at-large berth.

The Buffaloes are 19-10 overall (better than Oregon), 11-8 in the conference (a half-game behind Oregon), own a 16-point win over Arizona and beat Oregon at Oregon in their only meeting.

But Colorado is not even among the many other at-large possibilities in the Bracket Matrix site, which lists bracketology predictions from countless sites. Washington State is included in that group, but not the Buffaloes.

The problem? A NET ranking of No. 77, which virtually eliminates Colorado before even checking their resume.

A team's standing in its conference is not a factor in NCAA tournament selection, but maybe it should be.

Colorado is playing its best basketball at the end of the season, having won six of its past seven games. But a team's performance down the stretch is no longer a criterion for selection, as it was a few years ago.

Here is Joe Lunardi's Monday tweet on his Bracketology (BTW, he invented the word Bracketology):

pic.twitter.com/kVSVp0hsfn
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 28, 2022

Cover photo of Oregon's De'Vion Harmon is by Jayne Oncea-Kamin, USA TODAY Sports

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