Pac-12 Tournament: Colorado on Bubble; Cal Must Halt Backward Momentum
The belief among Pac-12 folks is that no matter what Colorado does in the Pac-12 tournament, which begins Wednesday in Las Vegas, the Buffaloes assured itself an NCAA tournament berth with last week’s wins over Oregon and Oregon State.
Not so.
NCAA tournament projections this week by ESPN, CBS Sports and Fox Sports all list Colorado as one of the last four teams in the NCAA tournament, giving the Buffaloes a No. 11 seed and placing them in one of the four preliminary-round games.
Those three reputable sites suggest Colorado has no margin for error. If the Buffaloes lose their opening game of the Pac-12 tournament, against either Utah or Arizona State on Thursday, Colorado might be headed to the NIT.
In fact, ESPN's Joe Lunardi says in his latest Bracketology that a first-round loss by Colorado would knock the Buffaloes out of the 68-team NCAA tournament field.
The situation for Cal is clearcut. The Bears must beat Stanford (13-17, 8-12 Pac-12) in Wednesday’s 6 p.m. first-round game in Las Vegas. Then they must beat second-seeded Washington State in the second round. Then they must beat a semifinal opponent. Then they must beat a fourth team in the championship game on Saturday.
And Cal offers this interesting side attraction:
It will take four wins in four nights for the Bears to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016. And Cal is not headed in the right direction to accomplish that.
Cal split its two regular-season games with both Washington State and Stanford. But the Bears (13-18, 9-11 Pac-12) lost their final three games of the regular-season, including a 22-point loss to Stanford in their final regular-season game last week.
Here is what is at stake for each Pac-12 team in the conference tournament, which starts Wednesday in Las Vegas.
No. 1 seed Arizona – The Wildcats are the favorites and might land a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament if they win the conference tournament.
No. 2 seed Washington State – The Cougars are safely in the NCAA tournament, but they would like to win a conference tournament for the first time ever.
No. 3 Colorado – The Buffaloes need to win a game in the Pac-12 tourney to be sure to get into March Madness.
No. 4 seed Oregon – The Ducks probably need to win the conference tournament to get an NCAA tournament berth, but if they get to the championship game and a lot of other things across the country fall in their favor, they may be interested parties on Selection Sunday.
No. 5 seed UCLA – With a 15-16 overall record, the Bruins don’t want to end the season with their its first losing season since 2015-16.
No. 6 seed Utah – The Utes dropped off the NCAA tournament bubble with two losses last week, and probably need to win the conference tournament to get in. If they get to the Pac-12 finals and lose, they will watch the Selection Show with interest just in case.
No. 7 seed Cal – The Bears are riding a three-game losing streak and need to win four games in four nights to get their first-ever conference tournament title.
No. 8 seed Washington – A farewell tour for coach Mike Hopkins, who will not be retained for the Huskies’ first season in the Big Ten.
No. 9 seed USC – The Trojans’ recent play suggests they may be able to win the Pac-12 tournament. They are the best long-shot pick.
No. 10 seed Stanford – How the Cardinal performs in this event may determine whether Jerod Haase will be retained as head coach – if a decision has not been made already.
No. 11 seed Arizona State – Will this be Bobby Hurley’s last season with the Sun Devils? He signed a contract extension through 2026 after last season.
No. 12 seed Oregon State – The Beavers may need to do something extraordinary for Wayne Tinkle to keep his job, although Oregon State’s remarkable run to a Pac-12 tournament title and a berth in the NCAA Elite Eight in 2021 can’t be forgotten.
Cover photo by Neville E. Guard, USA TODAY Sports
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