Cal Goes from Slight Underdog to Slight Favorite Against Clemson

The point spread for Cal's critical home game Friday night against Clemson is already changing, which suggests it may be different by the time they play the game.

Clemson opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday morning, according to FanDuel. But by Sunday evening, Cal was listed as a 1.5-point favorite over the Tigers by FanDuel. It means some early money came in on the Bears, and it's anyone's guess what the point spread will be by the 7:30 p.m. kickoff.

If Cal remains the favorite it would be the first time this season Cal is favored against an FBS opponent.

Cal was a 2.5-point underdog against UCLA in the opener, and the Bruins won that one 45-24. The Bears were 3.5-point underdogs in their second game against Syracuse, and Cal won that game 21-18 despite losing the statistics battle.

Cal was a 58.5-point favorite in its third game against Wagner, but the Seahawks are an FCS team, and Cal won that game 49-7.

And as of Sunday evening, FanDuel lists Cal as a 1.5-point favorite over Clemson. It is unusual for a point spread to change by three points in a matter of hours, so the spread may move again over the next few days. In any case, neither Clemson nor Cal is going to be much of a favorite in this game, which is practically a tossup.

Cal (2-1, 1-0 ACC) has won two games in a row and is coming off that lopsided win against overmatched Wagner. Although that victory may add a little confidence to the Bears’ players, the result does not say much about whether Cal has improved since its opening loss to UCLA.

Clemson is also 2-1 overall and 1-0 in the ACC after its 28-20 home victory over North Carolina on Saturday. The Tigers rallied from a 17-3 deficit to win that game behind freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, who made his first career start and is expected to start against Cal.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has seen the improvement in Reynolds since his playing time off the bench in the first two games.

“He needed to play games,” head coach Dabo Swinney said about Reynolds after the game, according to Clemson Tigers on SI. “Obviously, we threw him into a really tough situation in our opener. He got his first week of getting all of the reps [this week]. I thought he had a good week. He just has gotten better and better and better. He’s obviously a very gifted kid. He’s got an elite arm. He can throw from the pocket, he can throw on the move, he can run. He’s going to get even better as a runner once he really learns how to run with patience.”

If Friday’s game comes down to a quarterback duel, Cal would like its chances with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele coming off a strong game against Wagner.

Neither team has run the ball very well, but neither team has defended the run particularly well either.

Clemson lost its opener to LSU 51-10, then beat North Texas 22-7 before beating North Carolina.

Before the season began, Cal’s game against Clemson appeared to be the most significant game on the Bears’ 2026 schedule. It’s a chance for Cal to show how it stacks up against a team with a national reputation in a conference game at home on national television. If there is any one game this season that would demonstrate where the Bears football program stands early in the Tosh Lupoi era, this would be the game.

Not only do Cal and Clemson have same records this season but they finished last year with identical records, both going 7-6 overall and 4-4 in the ACC.

And as of Sunday evening it appears their game on Friday is a virtual tossup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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