Cal Needs Wins in ACC Baseball Tournament to Reach Postseason

Coaches and players try to avoid the temptation to look ahead with the cliché that they play one game at a time.

For Cal this week at the ACC baseball tournament in Charlotte, North Carolina, one win is unlikely to get the Bears where they want to go. It seems that at least two wins and possible three or four will be needed to get Cal into the NCAA baseball tournament for the first time since 2019.

The fact that Cal (29-25, 12-18 ACC) still has any hope of reaching the postseason at this late stage is an accomplishment of sorts, considering the Bears were picked to finish 15th in the 16-team ACC and suffered through a 10-game losing streak in March that left them with an 0-8 conference record.

There was hope that Jacob French, one of Cal's best hitters, would be ready to play in the ACC tournament after missing the past 12 games with a back injury, but he did not make the trip to Charlotte.

None of this week’s projections for the 64-team NCAA tournament have Cal in the field as of now.

Baseball America and On3 both have nine ACC teams in the NCAA field in their projections posted this week, and Cal is not in the First Four Out or even in the Next Four Out in either.

The only projection that gives Cal some hope is the one posted by PEARatings, which has 10 ACC teams in its projected field and lists Cal among the Next Four Out.

So Cal, with a precarious RPI of 55 and a decent 7-14 record against Quad 1 opponents, has work to do. In the meantime it must also hope that some teams on the postseason bubble in other parts of the country falter this week.

Not only do the Bears need to beat Stanford in its opening ACC tournament game on Tuesday at 10 a.m. Pacific time, but it seems they also must get past fifth-seeded Miami on Wednesday.

A second win on Wednesday would at least allow Cal’s players and coaches to pay attention when the 64-team NCAA field is announced next Monday, but it may not be enough.

Cal probably also needs to win a quarterfinal game on Thursday against fourth-seeded Boston College to feel it has a genuine shot at being one of the 35 at-large teams selected. But even three wins would not guarantee the Bears a postseason berth.

The only way Cal could assure itself a berth in the NCAA tournament would be to win five games in five days against some of the best teams in the country. Top-seeded Georgia Tech and second-seeded North Carolina are both ranked among the top three teams in the country this week, according to the USA Today coaches poll and the D1 Baseball rankings.

First things first. Cal, the 13th seed, must beat 12th-seeded Stanford, the team that Cal beat twice in three one-run games over the weekend to finish the regular-season.

Cal’s starting pitcher against Stanford (27-25, 13-17 ACC) will be freshman Otto Espinoza, who is 2-2 with a 3.35 earned-run average in 14 appearances, including five starts. His last appearance came on May 3 against Virginia Tech, when he allowed one run in 2 2/3 innings of relief, and his last start came on April 26 against Miami, when he gave up just one run in four innings but took the loss.

Stanford will counter with Toran O’Harran, who is 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA in 21 appearances, including six starts. He was the Cardinal’s starter in Stanford’s 7-6 victory over Cal on Thursday, giving up two runs (one earned) in 3 1/3 innings. That was his longest stint of the season, as he is more of an opener than a starter for Stanford, which will use a parade of relievers each game.

If Cal survives its first-round game, it will face Miami (36-17, 16-14 ACC) on Wednesday. Cal won one of three games against the Hurricanes in Coral Gables, Florida, last month,

A second Cal win would put Cal up against Boston College, which swept the Bears in a three-game series back in March, although one was an 11-inning defeat and another was a 4-3 loss in which Cal led 3-1 after six innings.

The best thing Cal has going for it is momentum. The Bears won six of their last eight regular-season games.

But Cal cannot feel confident about the NCAA tournament selection process after failing to make the field in 2024 when the Bears thought they were a shoo-in.

One thing that would be difficult for the Bears to swallow would be if Pittsburgh gets into the NCAA tournament and Cal doesn’t, which seems possible. Cal swept the Panthers in a three-game series by a combined score of 39-9 on Pitt’s home field last month.

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