The Open: Here's How Experts View the Chances of Collin Morikawa and Max Homa

Collin Morikawa, who will defend his title at The Open at St. Andrews in Scotland this week, isn’t getting much pre-tournament love from the experts.

The 25-year-old Cal grad is not listed among the top-10 favorites by the Golf Channel, Golf Digest or CBS Sports. ESPN includes Morikawa as a Tier I entry in the field of the tournament’s 150th renewal, but that group is hardly exclusive with 20 players.

Meanwhile, fellow Cal grad Max Homa, 31, is listed as a sleeper pick to win The Open, according to CBS Sports and is rated ahead of Morikawa in Golf Digest’s ranking of the top-100 players in the field.

The Open begins Thursday and runs through Sunday.

*** GOLF CHANNEL: Writer Bentley Romine rated all 156 entries in the field, and puts Rory McIlroy at the top of the list. His top-10 includes the likes of Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm, but Morikawa doesn’t check in until No. 13 and Homa is No. 30.

Here’s what he had to say about the two ex-Bears:

13. Collin Morikawa: Owns top-5s at the Masters and U.S. Open this year, but he hasn’t been the same player ball-striking-wise as he was when he lifted the claret jug last summer. And he’s also coming off an MC at the Scottish. Needs to replicate his putting performance from last year's Open win, where he totaled just 111 putts, tied for best in the field.

30. Max Homa: Don’t look now but Homa has made four straight major cuts after missing seven of his first eight. He’s not missed a regular cut anywhere since Farmers, too, with nine top-25s, including a win and a T-16 at the Scottish, during that span.

*** ESPN: Mark Schlabach, in a storied titled “Who Can and Cannot Win The Open at St. Andrews,” begins with a Tier I group of 20 potential winners. Morikawa is among those players, along with the usual suspects.

Schlabach’s remarks on Morikawa:

Morikawa is the defending champion, after winning The Open in his first start in the event at Royal St. George's in 2021. He had four rounds in the 60s, and his total of 15-under was a record for 15 Opens at the course.

He lists Homa in Tier II, which features players who can win “if everything goes right.”

*** GOLF DIGEST: The website ranked the top-100 players in the field, and offered a surprise No. 1 in Shane Lowry. The rest of their top-5: Rahm, Schauffele, McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Both Cal alums are in the top-20, but not in their traditional order:

17. Collin Morikawa

Age: 25 World Ranking: 4 Open appearances: 1
Best Open finish: Win, 2021
Last summer, during his first foray into links golf, he struggled considerably with his ball-striking at the Scottish Open. So he made an equipment change, figured it out, and won his second major championship. He’ll be hoping for a similar last-minute flip this year, for his game has been frustratingly inconsistent this year. Particularly his iron play–he’d been at Tiger-like levels the past two years with his trusty fade, but it’s been hard to pin down this year, and he admitted at the U.S. Open that he was primarily playing a draw for the first time since his freshman year of college. He still managed to shoot three rounds in the 60s at The Country Club for his second top-five in a major this year. He’s obviously comfortable in winning situations, and there’s something to be said for being the defending champion. But there have been far too many meh weeks this year—including a missed cut at last week’s Scottish.

13. Max Homa

Age: 31 World Ranking: 19 Open appearances: 1
Best Open finish: T-40, 2021
Still looking for a major championship performance to corroborate his showings in big non-major events; he’s been a stud in those but just hasn’t been the same player in the majors, though he has made the cut in the first three of 2022—progress, considering he missed six of eight to start his career. Has become an increasingly outspoken supporter of the PGA Tour and seemed genuinely excited to head over seasons for a fortnight of Scottish golf. If he doesn’t at least figure in the PIP race this year, something is wrong with the system.

*** CBS SPORTS: CBS ranked the top-22 players in The Open, and included both Golden Bears in its top-20, giving Morikawa a slight edge:

14. Collin Morikawa (Won in 2021): By my count, last week marked the first instance in Morikawa's career that he lost strokes in each tee to green category as he missed the cut at the Scottish Open. The good news is his putter has looked sharp in his last two outings as he gained more than four strokes on the greens at the U.S. Open en route to a T5 result and posted +3.04 strokes gained putting in two rounds at The Renaissance Club. The two-time major champion has elevated his performance in these championships, but it may be too much to ask him to defend his title given the relative unsteadiness in his current game.

15. Max Homa (T40 in 2021): It was a nice debut last year at Royal St. George's and may have served as a launch pad into this year's major championships where he has seen the weekend in all three. A balky putter hindered Homa's chances at The Country Club, but his ball-striking will allow him to contend in any and all conditions. He entered the final nine of the Scottish Open two strokes off the lead only to finish T16, but he backed up what he has been saying all along. Homa loves links golf and believes this championship is his best opportunity to win a major. Now, it's time to prove it.

CBS also asked three of its writers to make picks in various categories. Patrick McDonald filled two of those spots with the Cal golfers:

Patrick McDonald’s Sleeper pick at 50-1: Max Homa - I have been looking at Homa for this championship since the winter, and the only concern is that he's paired with Tiger the first two days. If he's able to get past the allure of playing the oldest championship in golf alongside his hero, Homa should be a perfect fit for St. Andrews. A tremendous striker of the golf ball, he is coming off a T16 effort at the Scottish Open where he was in with a chance over the final nine. He has been building towards a serious run in a major championship over the last two years, and I believe it could finally be his time.

Patrick McDonald's Star who definitely won't win -- Collin Morikawa: The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year is simply not the player he was at this point last season. Morikawa just lost strokes in each tee to green metric at the Scottish Open, which marked the first time in his PGA Tour career he has done such. He has continued to struggle finding fairways and subsequently with his irons, which will pose problems for him at St. Andrews.

Cover photo of Collin Morikawa by Michael Madrid, USA Today

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo