Collin Morikawa's Recent Slump May Make Him a Good Bet at U.S. Open

From a gambler's perspective, the one positive thing about Collin Morikawa's recent struggles is that you can get pretty good odds on him in the U.S. Open.

Morikawa is one of two former Cal golfers who figure to draw betting attention at this week's golf major, which starts Thursday in Brookline, Mass.

Homa is the other former Golden Bears golfer in the field, and while he has been playing well lately and getting attention as a sleeper pick at the odds he is getting, Morikawa has struggled since The Masters and is not among the betting favorites as he usually is.

---Morikawa tees off at 7:18 a.m. Eastern time (4:18 a.m. Pacific time) on Thursday and 1:03 p.m. Eastern time on Friday. Homa tees off at 7:29 a.m. Eastern time (4:29 a.m. Pacific time) on Thursday and 1:14 p.m. Eastern time on Friday.---

Rory McIlroy is the favorite on virtually every betting site, getting odds of 10-to-1 (+1000) to win. Justin Thomas is generally next at odds of 11-to-1 or 12-to-1, with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler next at anywhere from 13-to-1 to 15-to-1.

The 25-year-old Morikawa has won two majors and has spent most of this season as the No. 2-ranked golfer in the world, but he is now ranked No. 7 and 10 golfers have shorter odds than Morikawa to win the U.S. Open. His odds range from 25-to-1 to 32-to-1.

Here are the odds for Morikawa to win the U.S. Open at six major betting sites, as noted at VegasInsider and Thelines.com:

Vegas Insider -- 32-to-1

FanDuel -- 32-to-1

Draft Kings -- 30-to-1

PointsBet -- 30-to-1

BetMGM -- 28-to-1

Caesars Sportsbook -- 25-to-1

Meanwhile, Homa, who is still looking for his first major title, has longer odds than Morikawa but not by much. Here are his odds at those same six sites,:

Draft Kings -- 45-to-1

Vegas Insider -- 41-to-1

FanDuel -- 41-to-1

BetMGM -- 40-to-1

PointsBet -- 40-to-1

Caesars Sportsbook -- 35-to-1

It is worth noting that the ActionNetwork.com site reported that Homa's odds were as high as 50-to-1 earlier in the week, but his odds have been dropping.

Golf experts at a number of sites are giving their opinions on their picks to win and sleeper picks, and Morikawa and Homa are included in some of those.

Kyle Porter of CBS Sports ranked the top 22 players at the U.S. Open, with Morikawa coming in at No. 5 and Homa at No. 16.

Here's what he said about Morikawa:

5. Collin Morikawa (T4 in 2021):

Morikawa has scuffled a bit of late (for him), but this nugget from Justin Ray is good foreshadowing for Morikawa's future U.S. Open career, especially at golf courses like The Country Club that might not be as susceptible to bombing and gouging as other U.S. Open venues.

Precision iron play is paramount virtually every week, but it's especially significant at the game's toughest tests. Over the last five years, nearly 45 percent of the strokes gained against the field by U.S. Open champions have come on approach shots. Each of the last five champions ranked 6th or better for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach. In that same time span, the average field ranking for winners on the PGA Tour in that statistic is right around 12th.

And what he said about Homa:

16. Max Homa (MC in 2021): Throw him in the Scheffler-Thomas-Burns group of currently playing the best golf of his life. He implied after the PGA Championship, where he finished a career-best T13 at a major, that he's learning how to play majors better even without his best stuff. His approach play is underrated (top 10 in strokes gained approach in his last 50 rounds), and when you combine the best golf he's ever played with a mental approach that's allowing him to play his way into (instead of out of) majors, it's not difficult to see him being competitive this week.

David Bearman, ESPN.com's sports betting deputy editor, picked Morikawa as his top prop bet to finish in the top 10, saying this:

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+175)

Bearman:

I'll be playing Morikawa to win and top-10 as he is arguably the tour's premier ball-striker and this course demands that type of game. His struggle has always been the putter, but Morikawa figured it out at the two previous majors. This course is tailor-made for a guy fifth on approach and 20th off the tee, and a third leg of grand slam is not out of the question.

Bearman picked Homa for his best prop bet to finish in the top 20, saying this:

Max Homa top-20 finish (+160)

Marks:

Homa's first two tour wins were both on major championship quality courses. He T5 at the Memorial -- where he only needed 99 putts that week, and T-13 at the PGA Championships last month.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach puts Morikawa in a group of 15 players with the title "Tier I: The Guys Who Can Win" and says this about Morikawa:

Morikawa's recent form hasn't been great -- his best finish in his past five starts was a tie for 26th at the RBC Heritage and he missed the cut at the Memorial. But the two-time major champion's ballstriking is good enough to get him in contention at any major.

Schlabach places Homa in a sleeper category of 34 players titled "Tier II: If Everything Goes Right" and says this about Homa:

Cover photo of Collin Morikawa by Peter Casey, USA TODAY Sports

Follow Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by going to https://www.facebook.com/si.calsportsreport