#10 Baylor vs. #21 Duke Prediction, Picks & Betting Odds for Today, 12/20
Tonight, #10 Baylor battles #21 Duke in a premier college basketball matchup inside Madison Square Garden in New York on ESPN at 7 PM ET. While this is technically a neutral-court game, tonight’s event marks the 59th time Duke basketball plays at MSG, the team’s home away from home, as the Blue Devils have collected 40 wins to just 18 losses in this venue.
With a couple of high-octane offenses charged by some of the most talented underclassmen in the nation and a few key veteran pieces, our experts have picked apart this contest to deliver an official Baylor vs. Duke prediction with Baylor vs. Duke odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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BAYLOR VS. DUKE PREDICTION: Over 154.5 Points (-105) & Duke Money Line (-154 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Baylor vs. Duke Prediction for Today's College Basketball Game at MSG on ESPN
It’s safe to say both Baylor and Duke are looking for that signature win heading into their respective conference schedules, and it’s safe to say Duke needs it even more. Baylor has amassed three quality wins to this point, over Auburn, Florida and Seton Hall, but does not yet have a win over a team currently ranked within the Top 25. Duke also doesn’t have a win over a current Top 25 team, as their only win over a major program is Michigan State, who just improved to 5-5 after an upset thrashing of these Baylor Bears.
Baylor was 9-0 heading into that game but lost 88-64 on a poor shooting night, a rare occurrence for these Bears. Coming into this game off a poor performance could sharpen the play of Baylor in a matchup conducive to their offense.
Duke, who entered the season #2 with the shortest odds to win March Madness, squandered an opportunity at home against Arizona and two true road games at Arkansas and Georgia Tech, all games where the Blue Devils were the betting favorites.
While Duke is 11 spots lower in the AP Poll, it’s not a surprise to see Duke favored in this game (-2.5, -115 at FanDuel) as KenPom.com metrics have Duke ranked #10 and Baylor ranked #13. Also, the Blue Devils have won six straight games at MSG, all within the last six years, which means a handful of Duke’s players understand what it takes to win in this building.
To beat Duke, you have to shoot well from deep, where Baylor prefers to shoot from at a nation-best 44.6% clip. To beat Baylor, you have to score inside and limit second-chance opportunities on defense, two areas the Blue Devils excel in. With both offenses set to lean on their strengths, and two teams who like to get up and down the floor, we have a shootout in the making, one that can top a high point total.
If our Baylor vs. Duke picks aren’t yet obvious, continue reading to flesh out our Baylor vs. Duke prediction.
Baylor vs. Duke Picks & Best Bets Featuring Over 154.5 Total Points & Duke ML
Baylor is a perimeter-oriented team, and that shows in their outside shooting prowess on offense and their defensive ball pressure, limiting three-point effectiveness from their opponent. Baylor has six guards that play at least seven minutes a game, and four of those pieces play more than 20 minutes a game.
Duke also possesses elite guard play, thanks to two freshmen in Caleb Foster and Jared McCain and trusty veteran Jeremy Roach. Starting point guard Tyrese Proctor is still sidelined with an injury, but Duke’s quality and depth at guard make up for his absence by taking care of the ball, shooting it well from deep and getting the ball to and playing through the interior, where Duke is headline by the play of Kyle Filipowski (18.4 PPG, 9.2 REB, 3.0 AST) and sidekick Mark Mitchell.
In Filipowski’s most recent outing, he truly did it all to the tune of 28 points on four three-pointers, 12 rebounds, eight assists and three blocks.
While Baylor flexes a versatile veteran forward in Jalen Bridges and an athletic 7’0” rim-runner in Yves Missi, either player will have his hands full with the skill, size and playstyle of Filipowski.
Filipowski isn’t just the star but the X-Factor in this specific matchup. When Baylor isn’t making threes, they want to get on the offensive glass and they want to get to the free-throw line. Filipowski leads the charge in Duke’s top-10 defensive rebounding percentage and plays defense without fouling.
Additionally, as we mentioned, Baylor’s defensive ball pressure makes it a nightmare to shoot threes, but this leaves them more vulnerable inside the arc, where Filipowksi can expose the Bears’ defense. And if Baylor starts to collapse inside, Filipowski can use his excellent vision and passing ability to find and kick the ball to open shooters.
Because of Duke's familiarity at MSG, Filipowski and a slight matchup advantage in a few key areas, we like Duke to emerge victorious in a shootout. If you want to back either or both parts of our Baylor vs. Duke prediction, take Duke ML (-154 at FanDuel) and/or Over 154.5 Total Points (-105 at FanDuel).
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Baylor vs. Duke Betting Odds, Lines & Spreads at FanDuel
Below, we provide FanDuel’s Baylor vs. Duke spread and betting lines:
- Point Spread: Baylor +2.5 (-105) vs. Duke -2.5 (-115)
- Money Line: Baylor (+128) vs. Duke (-154)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 154.5 (-105) / Under 154.5 (-115)
If you target the Baylor vs. Duke spread, a $115 bet on Duke cashes $100 if the Blue Devils win by three points or more. If you target one of the picks from our Baylor vs. Duke prediction, such as Duke ML, a $154 bet cashes $100 if Duke wins the game outright.
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Probable Lineups for Baylor vs. Duke Today
Before we leave you, here are probable lineup for tonight’s matchup:
Baylor:
- RayJ Dennis
- Ja’Kobe Walter
- Jayden Nunn
- Jalen Bridges
- Yves Missi
Duke:
- Jeremy Roach
- Jared McCain
- Caleb Foster
- Mark Mitchell
- Kyle Filipowski
It’s always beneficial to analyze the rosters in full before betting on a game. Once you feel comfortable with either of our picks, register with FanDuel here and back our Baylor vs. Duke prediction for a chance at $150 in bonus bets!
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