Is Duke's Recruiting Slipping?
Duke signed an 18-player class on National Signing Day, and, after last year’s frantic run-up to NSD, David Cutcliffe had the no-drama recruiting class he prefers this year.
Recruiting at Duke is different from recruiting at other schools. Admissions requirements mean that there are several players that need to be taken off of Cutcliffe’s board before the process even starts. As a result, Cutcliffe and his staff tend to identify candidates early and stay out of the wild recruiting wars that occupy other schools.
Duke has struggled on the field in recent years, and Cutcliffe’s 2021 class continued a trend of Duke shifting away from Power Five prospects.
Duke’s 18 signees in 2021 had an average of 11.9 offers from other schools, but only 3.5 were from schools in Power Five conferences. The other 8.8 came from mid-majors, low-majors or FCS schools.
Last year’s signees had an average of 12.7 offers, 4.6 from Power Five. In 2019, the class averaged 13.4 offers, 6.9 from Power Five—more than the average number of offers from lower-level programs (6.5).
Cutcliffe prides himself on finding diamonds in the rough, often saying that the program, particularly in his early days as coach, had to find “two-stars who played like four-stars.”
So, perhaps Cutcliffe is better at finding those overlooked prospects, which would explain the lack of other Power Five offers.
What happens when the other Power Fives take an interest in the same diamond, though? Consider Harrison Wallace. Duke was the first Power Five to offer the wide receiver, and he committed in October. As his strong senior year continued, however, he attracted more attention, picking up offers from South Carolina, Penn State, Tennessee and Maryland. He eventually flipped to Penn State.
Win-Loss record
For our purposes, we’re considering any player that Duke offered a scholarship who chose another school a “Loss” to that school. For instance, Wallace would count as a Duke “loss” to Penn State.
Similarly, if a player chooses Duke, the Blue Devils get a “win” over any other team that offered him.
As the following chart shows, Duke’s win-loss record in recruiting has plummeted against Power Five teams, from .445 against ACC teams in 2019 to .227 this year, and from .480 against the SEC in 2019 to .137 this year.
Cutcliffe’s power five winning percentage is down 200 points in two years, and his overall win-loss rate was below .500 this year.
