Week 4 Duke Football Odds: Kansas in Unusual Position

In Lawrence, Duke football will likely encounter its toughest test to date.

On Saturday, the Duke football team hopes to finish its non-conference slate undefeated under first-year head coach Mike Elko while facing a road contest for the second time this season when they battle Kansas (3-0, 1-0 Big 12) in Lawrence.

But this time, the Blue Devils (3-0, 0-0 ACC) will be visitors in front of a sold-out crowd.

According to the Jayhawks' ambitious official Twitter account, the anticipated 47,233 patrons in David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, marking only the second sold-out crowd for the program since 2009, should "sound like 100,000."

Although neither Duke nor Kansas has a ranking by its name, the game is one of only four in the country this week featuring two unbeaten FBS teams and was at least in the discussion to host College GameDay (that honor instead went to Tennessee in its home game against rival Florida).

How to watch Duke football at Kansas

Date: Saturday

Time: Noon ET

TV: FS1

Stream: fuboTV (start your free trial)

Odds: Duke football at Kansas

At the time of this article's publishing, SI Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as seven-point underdogs against the Jayhawks. And the over/under total sits at 63 points.

According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, this week marks the first time since a 2009 matchup against Kansas State that Kansas has been the favorite versus a Power 5 opponent. It's worth noting that the Jayhawks, who were 1.5-point favorites against the Wildcats 13 years ago, lost that game, 17-10.

This Kansas squad feels legit, though, after covering the spread by at least two touchdowns in each of its three wins this season (against Tennessee Tech, West Virginia, and Houston) and already matching the program's highest win total from any of its past 12 campaigns.

As for the Blue Devils, who have yet to trail in a game this season, they easily covered in their first two games: a 30-0 home win over Temple as seven-point favorites and a 31-23 road win over Northwestern as 10.5-point underdogs. Then last week, they came up a point shy of covering in their 49-20 home win over North Carolina A&T.

Duke leads the all-time series, 2-1, including a 52-33 win in Durham last season during Kansas head coach Lance Leipold's first year at the helm.

If the balanced-attack Blue Devils continue their trend of excellence in the first quarter, in which they've outscored their three opponents, 45-0, they may well mirror that score from a year ago and tally a 4-0 start for only the third time this century.

However, despite a couple of lackluster first quarters, these Jayhawks boast an offense that has yet to score fewer than 48 points in a game.

Kansas has benefitted from the slick moves and accurate arm of Jalon Daniels. The dual-threat junior quarterback has completed 67.1 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and only one interception; plus, he's averaged 8.8 yards per rush and is the team's leader on the ground with 237 total yards.

Assuming Duke sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard avoids silly mistakes reminiscent of the second-quarter interception he threw against A&T, perhaps the Blue Devils' best chance at a win on Saturday is to capitalize on what they have done best thus far this season: forcing and recovering fumbles.

Duke's energized defense leads the ACC and is in a tie for first in the country with its six fumble recoveries.

Seeing that Daniels thrives in turning nothing into something when escaping the pocket, the Blue Devils should look to strip the ball in these moments. On the other hand, Daniels has lost Kansas possession via a fumble only once this season. So it's not as if he's careless with the ball.

With the likelihood of an unusually raucous crowd in Lawrence, one would think the Blue Devils might have a more challenging time than the Jayhawks in the turnover department, possibly leading to an irreversible momentum shift in favor of Kansas.

Considering Northwestern's crowd was relatively sparse, not to mention that the Blue Devils have yet to trail in a game, this Duke team has no experience overcoming setbacks in front of a loud opposing fanbase.

And the projection here is that will be the difference.

PREDICTION: Kansas 38, Duke 28

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