2024 FCS National Championship Preview & Prediction: South Dakota State vs. Montana
A national champion will be crowned on Sunday in Frisco, Texas as South Dakota State and Montana will face off in the FCS National Championship game at 1 p.m. CT.
The Jackrabbits will look to win back-to-back national championships, while Montana is looking for its first national title since 2001. South Dakota State is also looking to be the first undefeated FCS national champion since Sam Houston State in 2020.
Montana has a chance to pull off one of the biggest upsets in the modern era of the national championship game. The Grizzlies have silenced the critics throughout the season and will have an opportunity to do that one more time in Frisco.
2023 Predictions Record: 91-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
No. 1 South Dakota State (14-0) @ No. 2 Montana (13-1)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. CT (ABC)
Line: South Dakota State (-12.5)
Series History: Montana leads 8-0
National Championship Records: South Dakota State (1-1); Montana (2-5)
Key Players: South Dakota State
Mark Gronowski (QB): 196 for 286 (68.5%), 2,883 Passing Yards, 28 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 7 Rushing TDs
Isaiah Davis (RB): 220 Carries, 1,491 Rushing Yards, 6.8 YPC, 17 Rushing TDs
Jadon Janke (WR): 52 Receptions, 891 Receiving Yards, 17.1 YPC, 9 Receiving TDs
Tucker Large (DB): 43 Total Tackles, 4 INTs, 7 PBUs, 21 Punt Returns, 396 Return Yards, 1 TD
DyShawn Gales (DB): 38 Total Tackles, 1 TFL, 0.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 3 PBUs, 0 TDs Allowed
Jason Freeman (LB): 96 Total Tackles, 5.0 TFLs, 0.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 4 PBUs, 3 Fumble Recoveries
Key Players: Montana
Clifton McDowell (QB): 138 for 235 (58.7%), 1,861 Passing Yards, 13 Passing TDs, 3 INTs, 751 Rushing Yards, 9 Rushing TDs
Eli Gillman (RB): 187 Carries, 950 Rushing Yards, 5.1 YPC, 12 Rushing TDs
Junior Bergen (WR): 55 Receptions, 766 Receiving Yards, 13.9 YPC, 5 Receiving TDs, 798 Return Yards, 4 Return TDs
Braxton Hill (LB): 116 Total Tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 3 PBUs, 7 QBHs
Riley Wilson (LB): 48 Total Tackles, 14.0 TFLs, 8.5 Sacks, 5 QBHs, 1 PBU
Trevin Gradney (DB): 24 Total Tackles, 5 INTs, 7 PBUs, 1 Forced Fumble
South Dakota State enters this game as a heavy favorite, but it is not an unfamiliar spot for the Jackrabbits this season. The Jackrabbits have been dominant throughout the season, winning 12 games by double digits despite facing nine ranked opponents.
Despite the large amount of weapons at the skill positions, this team is led by the best offensive line at the FCS level. The Jackrabbits have only allowed 10 sacks this season and are one of the most experienced units in the nation. Mason McCormick has played in 69 games over his career, while Garret Greenfield is a three-time All-American with 64 games of experience. Gus Miller won the FCS Rimington Award this season, given to the best center at the FCS level.
Mark Gronowski will be a key player to watch in this game as the Grizzlies have done an excellent job against elite quarterbacks this season. Montana has not allowed a starting quarterback to pass for over 200 yards in seven consecutive games. An x-factor for the Jackrabbits could be tight end Zach Heins (7 Receiving TDs), who had a season-high two receiving touchdowns in the semifinals. Heins is a mismatch in coverage at 6'7, 260 pounds, and has the size to be an effective blocker in the run game.
The South Dakota State defense has played at an elite level, only allowing 15 offensive touchdowns this season. Over three postseason games, the Jackrabbits are allowing 4.0 points per game with two shutout wins over Mercer and UAlbany. This unit ranks No. 1 nationally in total defense (257.1 YPG Allowed) and scoring defense (9.7 PPG Allowed). The most overlooked aspect of this defense is the elite cornerback play from DyShawn Gales and Dalys Beanum. Gales has only been targeted 38 times this season, while Beanum has recorded four interceptions and seven pass breakups.
Montana had to search for its offensive identity over the first month of the season, which included an upset loss to Northern Arizona. Since that loss, the Grizzlies have won 10 consecutive games and are making the first national title appearance since 2009.
Quarterback Clifton McDowell has been the key to the offensive success and will be the x-factor in this matchup. McDowell can extend plays with his legs and make special things happen outside the pocket but has failed to take advantage of some opportunities over the past two games. The key for McDowell will be to trust his instincts and embrace his elite playmaking ability because there is no time for hesitation against a dominant South Dakota State defense.
The Montana wide receiver core is filled with elite playmakers who can create explosive plays at any moment. Keelan White and Aaron Fontes are both viable options on the outside that can win one-on-one matchups. Junior Bergen is an elite special teams threat but can dominate a game in various ways offensively. The Grizzlies will need to find a way to get Bergen the ball in space against the Jackrabbits.
The impressive and experienced linebacker core leads the Montana defense, which ranks No. 5 nationally in scoring defense. Braxton Hill, Tyler Flink, and Levi Janacaro all excel at making plays in the backfield. Riley Wilson can be dominant off the edge for the Grizzlies and will need to generate plenty of pressure on Gronowski this Sunday. Montana will need to keep the South Dakota State offense off schedule by creating negative plays, which has been a challenge for opponents against the Jackrabbits.
Montana has thrived in the underdog role all season, but the Grizzlies will face the toughest test of the season in Frisco. South Dakota State is a team that is filled with elite playmakers at almost every position on the field. It is hard to see Montana having enough defensive firepower to slow down the Jackrabbits and if the Grizzlies pull off the upset, it would be one of the most impressive upsets in the history of the title game. I expect South Dakota State to win back-to-back FCS national championships behind one of the most dominant teams at the FCS level in recent history.
Prediction: South Dakota State (38-14)
