FCS Playoffs Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction: No. 8 Villanova at No. 1 South Dakota State
South Dakota State enters this game on a 26-game winning streak and a 19-game home winning streak. The Jackrabbits defeated Villanova in the most recent matchup between these two programs, which was also a quarterfinal game in the FCS Playoffs two seasons ago.
The winner of this game will advance to face the winner of No. 4 Idaho vs. No. 5 UAlbany in the semifinals of the FCS Playoffs.
2023 Predictions Record: 84-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
Villanova (10-2) @ South Dakota State (12-0)
Kickoff: 11:00 a.m. CT (ESPN)
Line: South Dakota State (-20)
Series History: South Dakota State leads 2-0
Key Players: South Dakota State
Mark Gronowski (QB): 170 for 248 (68.5%), 2,517 Passing Yards, 24 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 260 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs
Isaiah Davis (RB): 178 Carries, 1,192 Rushing Yards, 6.7 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs
Jadon Janke (WR): 41 Receptions, 719 Receiving Yards, 17.5 YPC, 8 Receiving TDs
Jaxon Janke (WR): 43 Receptions, 708 Receiving Yards, 16.5 YPC, 4 Receiving TDs
Jason Freeman (LB): 78 Total Tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 0.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs
Tucker Large (DB): 38 Total Tackles, 3 INTs, 5 PBUs
Key Players: Villanova
Connor Watkins (QB): 146 for 251 (58.2%), 2,607 Passing Yards, 20 Passing TDs, 9 INTs, 328 Rushing Yards, 10 Rushing TDs
Rayjuon Pringle (WR): 38 Receptions, 955 Receiving Yards, 25.1 YPC, 8 Receiving TDs
Jalen Jackson (RB): 123 Carries, 914 Rushing Yards, 7.4 YPC, 8 Rushing TDs
Jake Reichwein (DL): 33 Total Tackles, 9 TFLs, 4.5 Sacks, 10 QBHs, 2 PBUs
Isas Waxter (DB): 26 Total Tackles, 3 TFLs, 3 INTs, 7 PBUs
Brendan Bell (LB): 82 Total Tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 1 INT, 5 QBHs
Villanova has won seven consecutive games since an early loss to UAlbany and the Wildcats have won all seven games by 12 or more points. This team has flown under the radar all season but flexed their muscle in a dominant win over Youngstown State last weekend.
The Wildcats lean on explosive plays offensively as Villanova averages over 7.0 yards per play. Wide receivers Rayjoun Pringle and Jaylan Sanchez both average over 25 yards per reception, which is the best in the FCS this season. Villanova also ranks No. 1 in the FCS in explosive play rate (16%), which could offer an interesting challenge for a talented South Dakota State defense.
Despite the explosive passing attack, the Wildcats need to establish the run early to create downfield opportunities. Villanova is 10-0 when surpassing 100 yards rushing this season. Jalen Jackson, DeeWil Barlee (658 Rushing Yards), and TD Ayo-Durojaiye (438 Rushing Yards) will need to have massive games this weekend against the Jackrabbits.
South Dakota State has dominated its opponents this season as the Jackrabbits have the best point differential in the nation (+331). The Jackrabbits continued their dominance in the second round with a 41-0 shutout win over Mercer.
The identity of this team is defense as the Jackrabbits lead the country in total defense (256.8 YPG Allowed) and scoring defense (10.3 PPG Allowed). Villanova thrives on explosive plays but South Dakota State has excelled in limiting those plays, holding opponents to only 4.6 yards per play. Despite not recording a sack in the first three games, the Jackrabbits have recorded two or more sacks in seven of the past nine games.
South Dakota State's offensive attack is extremely balanced as the Jackrabbits have weapons and experience at every position on the field. Running backs Isaiah Davis and Amar Johnson (704 Rushing Yards) lead a rushing attack that ranks No. 5 nationally and No. 1 in yards per carry (6.4 YPC). Quarterback Mark Gronowski leads the country in passing efficiency (182.5) and leads an offense that ranks No. 1 among playoff teams in yards per play (7.67 YPP).
Villanova has the offensive explosiveness to make this game interesting, along with a defense that ranks among the best among teams remaining in the postseason. South Dakota State has beaten five ranked opponents by three scores or more this season. The Wildcats will need to play the perfect game in Brookings this weekend to have a chance at pulling off the upset. Despite Villanova's talent, I expect the Jackrabbits to continue to roll toward Frisco for the second consecutive season.
Prediction: South Dakota State (38-14)
