FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview: No. 5 UAlbany at No. 1 South Dakota State
The winner of this game will advance to face the winner of No. 2 Montana vs. North Dakota State in the 2024 FCS National Championship.
2023 Predictions Record: 88-40
2022 Predictions Record: 115-35
No. 5 UAlbany (11-3) @ No. 1 South Dakota State (13-0)
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. CT (Dec. 15, ESPN2)
Line: South Dakota State (-21)
Series History: First Meeting
Key Players: South Dakota State
Mark Gronowski (QB): 181 for 267 (67.8%), 2,618 Passing Yards, 25 Passing TDs, 4 INTs, 299 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs
Isaiah Davis (RB): 205 Carries, 1,384 Rushing Yards, 6.8 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs
Jadon Janke (WR): 46 Receptions, 740 Receiving Yards, 16.1 YPC, 8 Receiving TDs
Dalys Beanum (CB): 29 Total Tackles, 3 INTs, 7 PBUs
Jason Freeman (LB): 87 Total Tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 0.5 Sacks, 2 INTs, 3 PBUs
Tucker Large (DB): 42 Total Tackles, 3 INTs, 7 PBUs
Key Players: UAlbany
Reese Poffenbarger (QB): 247 for 428 (57.7%), 3,371 Passing Yards, 36 Passing TDs, 10 INTs, 5 Rushing TDs
Brevin Easton (WR): 53 Receptions, 1,055 Receiving Yards, 19.9 YPC, 13 Receiving TDs
Griffin Woodell (RB): 177 Carries, 888 Rushing Yards, 5.0 YPC, 8 Rushing TDs, 4 Receiving TDs
Anton Juncaj (DL): 54 Total Tackles, 21.5 TFLs, 15 Sacks, 12 QBHs, 5 Forced Fumbles
AJ Simon (DL): 52 Total Tackles, 21.5 TFLs, 12.5 Sacks, 19 QBHs, 2 Forced Fumbles
Dylan Kelly (LB): 155 Total Tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs, 2 Fumble Recoveries
UAlbany entered the season under the radar after being voted to finish 11th in the CAA after a three-win season in 2022. The Great Danes have now won seven consecutive games and earned the first CAA championship in school history. Now this team has the opportunity to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season.
The defense has continued to shine throughout the season as the Great Danes lead the country in rushing defense (78.3 YPG Allowed). This unit has held 10 opponents to under 100 yards rushing behind elite play from linebackers Dylan Kelly and Ori Jean-Charles (112 Total Tackles; 12.5 TFLs) this season. The Great Danes rank No. 1 in sacks this season, led by All-Americans Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon. It will be one of the biggest tests of the season for a South Dakota State offensive line that ranks No. 6 in sacks allowed per game (0.77).
The x-factor in this game will be sophomore quarterback Reese Poffenbarger, who had a massive game against Idaho last weekend with over 300 passing yards. Poffenbarger can take over a game with his gunslinger mentality and his ability to turn broken plays into massive gains. He is surrounded by an elite receiver core, led by All-American Brevin Easton and Julian Hicks (744 Receiving Yards; 11 TDs). The key for Poffenbarger will be ball security as the Jackrabbits rank No. 5 in turnover margin this season.
South Dakota State has continued to roll as the Jackrabbits enter this game with a 27-game win streak. The Jackrabbits have also won 20 consecutive games at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium. It has been a season of dominance as the Jackrabbits have defeated the past six opponents by 11 points or more.
Running back Isaiah Davis has surpassed the 100-yard mark in 11 of 14 career playoff games, including the past two weeks against Villanova and Mercer. UAlbany cornerback Aamir Hall can shut down one side of the field, but Idaho was able to create mismatches on the other side. This could create opportunities for Jadon and Jaxon Janke to make some plays downfield. An extremely interesting matchup will be South Dakota State's No. 1 red zone offense (96%) against the red zone defense of UAlbany (68%).
South Dakota State's defense continues to play at an elite level as the Jackrabbits lead the country in scoring defense (10.5 PPG Allowed) and total defense (253.9 YPG Allowed). The key against the Great Danes will be limiting explosive plays. UAlbany scored four touchdowns against Idaho on plays over 20 yards, including three 30+ yard touchdown passes from Poffenbarger.
The Jackrabbits have excelled in limiting explosive plays, including not allowing an explosive play over 30 yards against eight opponents. South Dakota State also ranks No. 9 in interceptions this season and has forced an interception in seven of the past eight games. Safety Tucker Large and cornerback Dalys Beanum lead the team with three interceptions. Cornerback Dyshawn Gales will be a key player to watch as the senior has not allowed a touchdown in coverage this season.
UAlbany is going to present an interesting challenge for the Jackrabbits as the Great Danes have elite weapons at multiple key positions. I expect the Great Danes to be able to make this game competitive into the fourth quarter, but South Dakota State will lean on Isaiah Davis and Mark Gronowski will make some key throws to win this game on Friday night.
Prediction: South Dakota State (31-20)
