Florida vs. Kentucky: Picks and Predictions for Week 5
Florida returns to SEC play in Week 5 with a trip to Kentucky, with the Gators aiming to avoid their first three-game skid against the Wildcats since the Bear Bryant era of the late 1940s to early 1950s.
It's safe to say, this rivalry is currently far removed from Florida's 31-year era of dominance over Kentucky that stretched from 1987-2017. Although UF is 7-3 in the series over the last 10 seasons, UK is 3-2 over the last five.
Oddsmakers aren't overly optimistic that the Wildcats will handle their business at home against the Gators, however. After Kentucky opened the week as a 2.5-point favorite over Florida, Sports Illustrated Sportsbook's point spread was pulled on Friday morning. The over/under is currently set at 44.5 points.
Find All Gators' picks and predictions for the Gators' matchup with the Wildcats below.
Alex Shepherd (4-0): Florida 27, Kentucky 24
This game might be the hardest one to predict to date. Florida has proven to be a fairly inconsistent team, as it could only manage to put up 22 points at home against one of the worst defenses in the FBS following a massive win against Tennessee the week before.
Had the Gators put on a show against Charlotte, this prediction would be very different. However, you can’t ignore the obvious: We do not know what team we will get each week.
Kentucky enters the matchup undefeated at 4-0, coming off a blowout win against Vanderbilt. Its offense centers around senior quarterback Devin Leary and senior running back Ray Davis. Leary has proven he has a solid arm but has consistently struggled with accuracy under pressure, completing just 59.3% of his passes. Statistically, the best defense the Wildcats have faced thus far is Akron (46th in the country in total defense). The next closest they have faced is Ball State, which sits at 90th nationally.
All of this to say, the game could very well come down to how dominant the Gators' defense can be. Kentucky thrives on explosive plays, meaning the Florida secondary will need to lock down the Wildcats' wide receiver trio of Tayvion Robinson, Barion Brown and Dane Key to stay in this.
Away games have not treated Florida well under Billy Napier, having only come out victorious once during his time at UF. Will this be the game in which Napier breaks the trend and Florida finally stabilizes the ship? Can Florida adjust to playing in its first early game of the season?
All questions will be answered on Saturday at noon ET. I think Florida’s defense does enough to keep them in this one, and with the return of center Kingsley Eguakun and wide receiver Eugene Wilson III, the offense does just enough to squeak by in Lexington.
Zach Goodall (3-1): Kentucky 21, Florida 16
Both Billy Napier and Mark Stoops are known for their physically-inspired philosophies as head coaches. Napier has on multiple occasions acknowledged his desire to establish a consistently dominant rushing attack supplemented by an imposing defense at Florida — there have been plenty of flashes so far — and Stoops has often put those exact kinds of teams together in his 10+ season career in charge at Kentucky.
But Stoops has flipped that script this season with North Carolina State transfer Devin Leary as his quarterback, as Kentucky is operating a pass-heavy offense for the first time in Stoops' career in Lexington. The results are 38 points per game on average, with Leary ranking third among SEC quarterbacks in touchdowns with nine and average depth of target at 11.6 yards a pop.
I envision Napier being required to do the same on Saturday when the Gators meet the Wildcats in order to keep up, even if UF's greatly improved defense can make some necessary stops — I believe it will.
And the last time Florida relied on its passing game to remain competitive, Graham Mertz generated 330 yards and a 70.5% completion rate, but the offense only managed one touchdown in its 24-11 loss against a very good Utah defense in Week 1.
Kentucky, too, presents a strong defensive unit that is likely to hone in on Florida's rushing attack and demand Mertz to take over. The Wildcats allow just 2.6 yards per rushing attempt this season, and to pair, six members of their front rank among the top 31 defenders in the SEC in pass rush win rate this season, per Pro Football Focus.
The Gators' offense is in for a legitimate challenge, simply put. Not only to beat a sound defense but also to keep up with an explosive offense, in a hostile environment that has caused Florida issues during recent matchups at Kroger Field.
I forecast another perfect day from Florida's new starting placekicker, Trey Smack, with the sophomore going three-of-three on field goal attempts. But settling for three points more often than putting seven on the board, similar to the Gators' results in Week 4 against Charlotte, will be UF's undoing against a team that is capable of frequently finding the end zone.
Brandon Carroll (3-1): Kentucky 21, Florida 20
In Florida’s most important matchup of the season, I expect a tightly contested defensive battle in Lexington.
The Gators' goal should be to rush the football for over 150 yards on the day against the SEC’s No. 1 rush defense — which would double the Wildcats’ average yards allowed on the ground per game (77.5). Utilizing Trevor Etienne at a high-volume clip the way he did against Tennessee, Napier needs to lean on Florida’s undenied top rusher thus far in 2023 in abundance. Let his counterparts in the backfield, Montrell Johnson and potentially Treyaun Webb, complement his efforts.
While they find some success on the ground, pushing over the century mark, I ultimately think Kentucky’s front seven is the best unit the Gators have met to this point, halting their attempts to produce at the rate needed to excel in that area on the road. In addition, Mark Stoops will stack the box and force quarterback Graham Mertz to beat his team through the air.
As consistent and reliable as Mertz has been as a game manager for Florida since his arrival — which is what he was brought in to do — I’m not sure his prowess as a passer is enough to overcome a gritty Cats team, especially on the road.
It will be enough to keep the game competitive until the final whistle, however.
The Gators' defense has proven to be vastly improved from a season ago under new play-caller Austin Armstrong, ranking No. 5 in total defense through four weeks of the year.
Limiting running backs Ray Davis and JuTahn McClain will be a crucial factor in their desire to create pressure on quarterback Devin Leary, who has shown a propensity for turnovers against inferior opponents in his four appearances with the UK program.
He has five interceptions to his name, including two against Vanderbilt in Week 4. The erratic style will offer Florida’s defense opportunities to create short fields and even add points to the scoreboard as he puts the ball up from grabs on occasion.
However, while he’s shown some inconsistency, Leary’s also allowed the Wildcats offense to be one of the most explosive units in the land this season. Averaging 7.8 yards per play, ranking No. 8 in that metric in Division-I, Kentucky has the propensity to reel off big plays.
If the UF defense had a weakness to this point in the season, allowing the explosive play is it.
The Gators will keep it close until the final seconds and even hold a 20-14 lead at one point, only for Leary to find either Barion Brown or Dane Key deep down the field at a crucial point to give Kentucky the slight edge.
Therefore, Florida ultimately falls short of reconciling the woes on the road and against Kentucky in recent memory. The Wildcats will walk off Kroger Field with a one-point win, 21-20.
Conner Clarke (3-1): Florida 23, Kentucky 20
The Gators are gearing up for their second conference game of the season where they will travel to Lexington to take on the Wildcats at Kroger Field.
Under Billy Napier, the Gators are 1-6 away from the Swamp, and Kentucky has put together its first winning streak over Florida, albeit only two games, since 1977. Sitting at 4-0, the Wildcats have only been considered slight favorites heading into this SEC East matchup, but have been far from a well-oiled machine this season.
Both programs have been leaning on transfers for a good bit of their production this season, with the Gators featuring Graham Mertz, Montrell Johnson and Ricky Pearsall, and Kentucky showcasing Devin Leary, Ray Davis, and Tayvion Robinson.
Leary, the NC State transfer, has put up solid numbers by eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark through four games and throwing for nine touchdowns. However, he hasn’t been the model of efficiency, completing just 59.3 percent of his passes and turning the ball over five times. If the much-improved Florida defense can get pressure on Leary, he has proven to this point in the season that he can and will make mistakes that the Gators can take advantage of.
The player that I expect Kentucky to lean on the most is Ray Davis. The Vanderbilt transfer has put up 314 yards and five touchdowns on just 50 carries and has also been a threat in the passing game, where he’s caught 10 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season at Vanderbilt, Davis ran for 122 yards against Florida and will certainly be looking to repeat and even increase that production on Saturday.
Florida must find a way to stretch the field more effectively than it has so far this year, as I expect Kentucky to load the box to stop Johnson and Trevor Etienne in an attempt to force Mertz to beat them with his arm. If he can push the ball downfield effectively to players like Pearsall, Tre Wilson, Caleb Douglas, Kahleil Jackson, and even freshman Andy Jean, who flashed last weekend, the Gators should have a great chance to come out of Lexington with a win.
And while Florida is coming off of a lackluster performance at home against Charlotte, Kentucky really hasn’t been tested to this point in the season due to a very weak front end of the schedule.
I haven’t seen enough to make me think Kentucky can run away with this thing. I’m going to take Florida here.
Cam Parker (3-1): Florida 24, Kentucky 21
If I'm being completely honest, this might be the most uncomfortable pick I've made to date. I've flip-flopped consistently throughout the week, but as of the time of this writing, I'm going with the Gators on the road in a close defensive battle.
Looking at the matchup, the result shouldn't be surprising either way.
Kentucky does have the veteran presence of Devin Leary at quarterback, who's led the Wildcats to a 4-0 start and has already thrown for nine touchdown passes. The problem? He's a bit of a turnover machine with five interceptions in four games.
However, Florida's had issues creating turnovers with only one interception.
Kentucky also poses a threat in the big play game with four receivers with at least one catch of over 50 yards. Looking at the Utah and Tennessee games, Florida's struggled a bit in that regard.
If Florida can put consistent pressure on Leary, as its defense did against Joe Milton, the Gators will have a tremendous opportunity to snap its two-game losing streak to the Wildcats.
Offensively, Florida does have the benefit of Kinglsey Eguakun, Damieon George Jr. and Micah Mazzccua returning to the starting offensive line full time as well as Tre Wilson back as a starting receiver. The Gators should be able to have more success in the rushing game as a result while using Wilson, either as a feature or as a distraction, to open up the playbook.
Relying on Trevor Etienne, though, will be key. Florida strayed away from him last week against Charlotte, and the rushing game never seemed to find its rhythm. Using him as a feature back while keeping the passing attack at an efficient level with Graham Mertz should mean success for the Gators' offense.
It won't be easy. Kentucky boasts the SEC's top rushing defense, but the Wildcats haven't faced a backfield like Florida's yet. It may not be a 200-yard team day for UF, but getting close to it isn't out of the question.
That being said, Florida must score touchdowns in the red zone. Kicking five field goals won't win this game. Crossing the goal line will. We'll see if Florida can rise to that occasion like it did two weeks ago against Tennessee.
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