Florida Gators vs. Ole Miss: Game Predictions and Takes
Each Friday, the Sports Illustrated-AllGators staff will provide predictions and pre-game analysis before the Florida Gators take on their weekly opponent.
The Gators begin their 2020 season tomorrow at noon, against Ole Miss in Oxford, Miss. The contest serves as Lane Kiffin's first as the Rebels' head coach, after a three-year stint at Florida Atlantic, and numerous gigs prior to that.
We won't bore you with a long intro, as our week one takes are a bit long in order to best prepare you for kickoff. Football is back, baby!
Game Predictions and Takes
Zach Goodall: I predict this game to be close. In the first half.
Both Florida and Ole Miss' offense have opportunities to come out firing after an offseason where development and training were cut in half without spring camp. Florida returns talent defensively but must also replace a first-round cornerback, a three-year starting middle linebacker, and other key players. Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn't really return much defensive talent at all.
Dan Mullen and Lane Kiffin's offenses are both set up for success to begin with, provided comfort at quarterback and plenty of weapons, but it's hard to have much confidence that D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge's unit in their season as Ole Miss' co-defensive coordinators will be able to catch up. The Gators' defense under Todd Grantham's lead, however, has the talent and familarity to put the game away as they get more comfortable with new starters.
Ole Miss covers the current spread, and the over hits, but the Gators put the game away in the fourth quarter after a momentum shift defensively. Score: Florida 41, Ole Miss 28.
Demetrius Harvey: In the first game of the year for the Gators, Florida will get off to a slow start after not having played real football for the past several months. Ultimately, however, the Gators are able to take advantage of a suspect Ole Miss defense that'll be led by a new coaching staff. The Gators will have to take some time to gel offensively but eventually get into a groove.
The game will ultimately be led by quarterback Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts who continue their connection from last season, allowing the Gators to coast from the second half onward. Score: Florida 27, Ole Miss 17.
Graham Marsh: Don’t be fooled, Ole Miss can play on the offensive side of the ball. Whether it ends up being Matt Corral at quarterback the whole way, John Rhys Plumlee stepping in for him or a mixture of both, Lane Kiffin and this offense will score points. Florida is still struggling in the safety room as well and may have a few lapses in coverage to give Ole Miss big plays.
That said, Ole Miss’s defense is still struggling everywhere. Trask and company should run up and down the field on that defense at will. Look for a battle early, but also look for UF’s rushing attack to be significantly improved and for that to wear down the Rebels late. Score: Florida 38, Ole Miss 28.
Donavon Keiser: Although the matchup will be a fun one to watch, I don't find the game to be particularly close due to the lack of spring practice for the Rebels and it's new staff against the well-oiled machine that is Dan Mullen and his Florida program. Ole Miss brought in an entirely new staff, changing their leadership from Matt Luke to the infamous Lane Kiffin. They've always had talent but have struggled to produce in the juggernaut that is the SEC West.
As for the game itself, I see Florida getting up early and maintaining a lead, but not pulling it away until the 2nd half. Florida's offense could sputter with the offensive line still getting into a groove and I expect a relatively ugly game due to the lack of spring and summer practices. Florida's defense should be stagnant even though the gameplan will be somewhat limited due to the new staff at Ole Miss. All in all, the Gators still should win comfortably in Oxford. Score: Florida 41, Ole Miss 24.
Brandon Carroll: Coming into the season with high expectations, I expect the Florida Gators to come out looking for a hot start with a big win on Saturday in Oxford. As a team that brings an abundance of continuity along both the coaching staff and roster, Florida is better suited to win an early-season matchup in a year that has brought a shortened offseason.
What I look for this matchup is how the Gators can contain Plumlee, Corral, and the unpredictable Ole Miss offense under new head coach Lane Kiffin. Known for his brash coaching style, I think they embrace his swagger and come out with a chip on their shoulder in week one. With a stout run game leading the charge for the Rebels offense, missed tackles and mental lapses from Florida could result in points for Ole Miss early, similar to the week zero matchup versus Miami just last season.
However, unlike last year's bout with the Hurricanes, this game will not be particularly close. While it may be tight going into halftime, the rust wears off in the second, as adjustments are made and a top-five worthy team emerges out of the tunnel to kick off the final thirty minutes of the ball game. I expect Florida’s offense to score with ease against a thin Ole Miss defense throughout. A big second-half carries UF to a wide margin of victory. Score: Florida 45, Ole Miss 17.
Michael Knauff: The first game is always the hardest to predict, and the challenges surrounding the offseason due to the pandemic is making it even harder. On top of the more spaced out practice dates, quarantines because of COVID-19, and opt-outs, there’s your more “traditional factors” like scheme fit with a personal group, coaching turnover, and the number of returning starters.
What helps Florida more than maybe any team in the SEC, is they have a lot of continuity. On offense, all five starting lineman have significant SEC experience, four of whom started for Florida last year. That makes a difference, particularly against a team like Ole Miss that is under new leadership across the board, and has a fair amount of youth at key positions.
The thing I’m looking for is how well Florida runs the ball, and how they contain the Rebels' run game. Ole Miss ran the ball at an exceptional level in 2019, ranking second in the SEC. It wasn’t as pretty for Florida, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in rushing. If Florida can rush for more than 150 team yards, and keep Ole Miss under that total, it should be an easy win for Florida. If not, this could be a lot tighter than the current 13.5-point spread the Gators are favored by.
The defense allows some early yards, and it’s 20-14 or so at the half, but Todd Grantham's second-half adjustments limit the Ole Miss ground attack in the last 30 minutes. Score: Florida 40, Ole Miss 24.
