Florida vs. Utah: Picks and Predictions for Billy Napier's Gators Debut
As All Gators highlighted earlier this week, no Florida Gators head coach has endured as challenging of a tenure-opening game as the one Billy Napier is about to take on in recent memory.
Florida will open its 2022 season against the No. 7 Utah Utes in The Swamp at 7 P.M. ET on Saturday, walking into Napier's first game as the Gators' head coach as a home underdog following the team's 6-7 record in 2021 and its roster turnover-riddled offseason.
Utah is considered a three-point favorite over Florida on Saturday, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 51 points.
You can find AllGators' predictions for the game below. We will track the staff's prediction record throughout the year and are not predicting against the spread.
Zach Goodall: Utah 27, Florida 24
The humidity of an early-September evening in Gainesville won't be easy for a Pac-12 team in Utah to overcome. The same can be said regarding the Utes' all-around playing experience, something the Gators lack entering Napier's first game in charge.
Utah returns 17 starters from its Pac-12 championship-winning 2021 season, including nine 2022 Preseason All-Pac-12 selections. Cameron Rising is back to lead the Utes' offense along with top contributors such as running back Tavion Thomas and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe.
This trio of playmakers combined for 36 all-purpose touchdowns last year.
Whereas, according to Napier, Florida welcomed 34 new players this offseason as he rebuild the roster that Dan Mullen left him. 19 redshirt and true freshmen could be found within the Gators' Week 1 depth chart, as well as 12 new starters compared to their final depth chart of the 2021 season against Florida State.
The perfect example of Florida's youth: Quarterback Anthony Richardson is viewed as the make-or-break contributor for the Gators entering 2022. He has only one career start under his belt, albeit along with the athletic potential to emerge as a game-changer.
With all of this in mind, although the game will be close from start to finish due to the general roster differences that stem from SEC vs. Pac-12 recruiting, I expect the Utes to come out on top.
It's tough to pick the Gators, considering all of these circumstances, to pull off such an upset in their first game under a new head coach who has dedicated his first offseason in charge to tearing down the program and rebuilding it from scratch.
Brandon Carroll: Florida 31, Utah 27
An monumental upset of the No. 7 team in the nation to begin Napier’s tenure would immediately place him in his own section of the Gators history books.
On the surface, it may seem like a pipe dream for Florida to upset Kyle Whittingham’s Utes, and rightfully so.
Utah holds a plethora of talented pieces — including the ones Zach mentioned above as well as cornerback Clark Phillips and former Gators linebacker Mohamoud Diabate defensively — and the experience advantage over Florida heading into this season. With 17 returning starters and a head coach heading into his 18th season, it may seem crazy to project that team to lose to a team entering year one of a tenure with the least talented roster the program has seen in years.
However, that’s exactly what I’m doing.
Over the past two seasons, as tumultuous as they may have been, Florida has only dropped two games at home. Even in the midst of a 6-7 season, the Gators went toe-to-toe with the eventual SEC Champion Alabama. The game was decided by a missed field goal, while the other loss came on Marco Wilson’s infamous shoe throw against LSU in 2020.
Florida is historically one of the best home teams in the nation. They’re 169-32 since 1990, the second-best clip in college football over that span.
That’s because the Swamp is a very real environment. It’s one that this current Utah team hasn’t seen before and no amount of loud music in the facility during practice can prepare them for. It has the potential to force the usually disciplined unit into simple mistakes. That opens the door for a hungry Gators squad to begin the Napier era with a bang.
Richardson takes advantage of his second career start, showcasing the reason he’s received so much hype this offseason with an efficient, no-turnover day.
Meanwhile, the Florida defense takes a major step forward in the first game under Patrick Toney’s leadership. They stymie the stout Utah rushing attack and rattle quarterback Cameron Rising with their pass rush to force an uncharacteristic turnover from the poised signal caller.
As a result, I think the Gators do enough in a back-and-forth affair to pull out a four-point victory over the Utes.
Conner Clarke: Florida 27, Utah 24
Billy Napier is set to lead the Florida Gators into battle for the first time as head coach, and against a top 10 opponent no less.
Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes are about as close as you can get to an SEC team without actually being in the conference. Tough, disciplined and hard-nosed are the core principles of a very good Utah team that looks to start the Napier Era on a bit of a sour note. I fully expect this to be a knockdown, dragged-out fight between two very physical teams that want to establish the run and control the tempo early.
The Gators are the underdog and rightly so, but there is nothing that can simulate the heat and humidity that Utah will experience for the first time Saturday. Couple that with the fact that The Swamp is probably one of the best home-field advantages in football and I like the Gators to announce their presence and shock the college football world early in the season. It will be a close one.
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