Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers: Three Key Matchups to Monitor
Sitting at 5-4, Billy Napier's Florida Gators are still one win away from bowl eligibility, and after last week's shocking loss to Arkansas, they'll need to pull off an upset to make it to the postseason.
First up are the No. 19 LSU Tigers in Death Valley, a team Florida hasn't beaten since 2018 in a place the Gators haven't pulled off a win since 2016.
Below are three key matchups between Florida and LSU that could determine the victor in Baton Rouge. Kickoff from Death Valley is at 7:30 p.m. ET, with television coverage on SEC Network.
Florida's Defense vs. a Heisman Trophy Candidate-led Offense (or His Backup)
Last week's matchup with Arkansas involved facing a mysterious offense due to the Razorbacks changing of play callers. This week, there's another mystery that the Gator defense faces, and it's at the quarterback position.
LSU Heisman Trophy contender Jayden Daniels has been in concussion protocol during the week following a late injury against Alabama, although he appears in line to start on Saturday. The senior quarterback has provided plenty of issues for opposing defenses with over 2,700 yards passing with 27 touchdowns with another 684 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.
"There’s a benefit to having an athlete at the position and this guy he’s pretty special," Napier said.
Florida has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks this season, and Daniels might be the best of them. Utah backup Nate Johnson rushed for a game-high 45 yards on only six carries and a touchdown, and Arkansas' KJ Jefferson wore Florida down late with 92 yards and a score last week.
Daniels showed his capabilities in the Tigers' 45-35 win in the Swamp last season with six total touchdowns, half of them on the ground and the other half through the air.
Florida's newcomers also understand the threat he poses.
“Jayden, he’s real fast, a good player," said defensive lineman Cam'Ron Jackson. "We’ve got to make them a one-dimensional team ‘cause if Jayden’s don’t play, we know they’re going to try to run the ball, so we got to try to make them a one-dimensional team.”
Should Daniels be unable to go, LSU will give the keys to its offense to Garrett Nussmeier, the son of former UF offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier.
In limited action, Nussmeier has thrown for 196 yards and a single touchdown while completing just over 51% of his passes this year. Against Alabama in Daniels' spot, he went 5-of-10 for 53 yards.
Despite the inaction this year, Napier noted that Nussmeier is a productive player, and the team has prepped for both quarterbacks.
"I think Nussmeier obviously has been a very productive player as well. I think if you really dig into the tape, when he's been given opportunities, he's done a nice job moving their team," Napier said. "So I think we'll prepare for both. They're definitely different players, but they're both very capable."
Saturday's matchup may come down to two areas against quarterbacks that Florida has not done well with, producing sacks and producing interceptions. The Gators looked like they turned a corner last week against Arkansas with a multi-sack game from Princely Umanmielen and an interception from Jordan Castell, but it wasn't meant to be as the Razorbacks put up their most points since Week 1.
If Daniels plays, it'll come down to keeping him contained. If Nussmeier plays, it'll come down to forcing him into uncomfortable situations as an inexperienced player.
"It's all matchups, right?" Napier pondered. "And you try to create scenarios where you've got the advantage, you know, you get the pen last. Then they've got a really good system, and they do a good job utilizing their personnel. So, you know, this is pure as football gets."
"Game Changers"
If Florida is to pull off the upset, it will need to do so in all three phases of the game. The Gators' "Game Changers" cannot change the game for the other team, again.
Last week's collapse against Arkansas happened for a variety of reasons, but special teams gaffes were arguably the biggest eye-sore, despite a strong start in the third phase.
Trey Smack kicked two field goals, wide receiver Ricky Pearsall had a couple of good punt returns and Jeremy Crawshaw punted well. However, it was too good to be true for a unit that has struggled to find its footing all season long.
Once again, Florida only had 10 men on the field for a field goal block attempt, but that wasn't even the worst of it. A bobbled snap on an extra point eventually allowed it to be a tie game late in the fourth quarter rather than a one-point Florida lead.
On the final drive, Smack was set up with a 39-yard field goal to win, but personnel confusion led to a five-yard penalty. If it wasn't for the clock stopping prior to the penalty, a 10-second runoff would've sent the game to overtime immediately.
However, Smack got his chance from 44 yards out and missed. Despite his converted field goal on the first drive overtime, Florida would still go on to lose.
"I think ultimately we made a mistake there," Napier said on Monday. "And every part of our organization is ultimately my responsibility. So I think it's something that we can do better. It's my job to get it done better.
Again, special teams weren't the only reason the Gators lost to Arkansas, but they were a big factor in the defeat. To make it worse, a lot of the issues are self-inflicted.
If there's any chance for the Gators to win in Death Valley for the first time since 2016 and reach bowl eligibility, they cannot afford for these mistakes to happen.
Gators vs. Death Valley and Homecoming Emotions
It's no secret that some of Florida's biggest struggles over the past two seasons have come away from the Swamp, where Florida is 2-8 under Napier, including neutral sites and a bowl game.
Now, the Gators will face their toughest environment yet: Tiger Stadium.
LSU is 5-0 at home and hasn't lost in Death Valley since Oct. 8, 2022, a 40-13 loss to Tennessee. The Tigers also haven't lost a night game at home since 2021.
"That’s one of the things about this place and this league, you get to go play in some of the iconic places, places you dreamed of competing in," Napier said. "You grew up your entire life watching games on TV in those venues and to go get a chance to go do it is pretty special."
In the way the Swamp affects away opponents and fuels the Gators, fans in Death Valley will be roaring to fuel the Tigers and rattle the Gators. The Florida players understand that.
"Of course, going into a hostile environment like that, they're going to have, I don't know how many people they hold, it's going to be 99 percent Tigers and 1 percent [Florida] maybe, if that," offensive tackle Austin Barber said.
Louisiana natives Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson confirmed as much. Not to mention, both will have family in the crowd. Napier's family is also making the trip, he said.
Factoring in a tough two-game losing streak, a hostile road environment and the plethora of players and coaches returning to Louisiana, Florida will need to keep its emotions in check on Saturday.
"It's football. I've been playing this game since I was six years old. We practiced it throughout the week. I feel like coach has prepared us just for that moment," Johnson said. "And I think that those coaches have put us in the right position to be prepared for that, and I trust in them."
Obviously, the crowd at Tiger Stadium has a reputation that precedes itself, and considering Florida's struggles on the road to begin with, this matchup will be one to keep an eye on.
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