Game Preview: Florida State at NC State

Florida State is back on the court for the first time in more than two weeks following a COVID-related pause, and they now find themselves starting ACC play with not as much experience as they would've hoped. Games against UCF, UNF, and Boston College were all delayed/canceled, and those would've been a good chance for this young team to gain some confidence coming off of the Lipscomb game.

NC State is currently on a 4-game losing streak, as well as losing 5 of the last 6. Those losses have comes to Louisville, Purdue, Richmond, Wright State, and Miami. They've suffered some major blows this season, which we'll get to in a little bit, but they had some high hopes of Cam Hayes improving in his second season that would help them out of the middle of the ACC. So far, it just hasn't been that.

The Wolfpack lead the all-time series in this matchup 30-28, but FSU has been closing the gap fast winning 6 of the last 7, with the last one being a 32-point drubbing of a short-handed NC State team following a COVID-related pause last season (sound familiar?).

This game will be at 4pm EST from PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC on the ACC Network.

NC State Wolfpack (7-6, 0-2) Breakdown

I don't think any team encapsulates what the ACC has been this year more than NC State. They started out 6-1, picking up a 4OT win over Nebraska in the process, before an OT loss to Purdue started a 4-game losing streak where they have since fallen to Miami and Wright State. Their best win analytically is actually over Louisiana Tech, so safe to say they haven't shown much.

Some people will look at the OT game against Purdue and go "wait a minute, Purdue demolished Florida State, shouldn't we be worried?" You can if you want. That was one of the three best shooting displays NC State has had all season, whereas it was the worst shooting display for Purdue all season. Wasn't anything special that NC State was doing, Purdue just wasn't hitting shots, especially the ones they were hitting against Florida State. NC State really isn't a good 3-point shooting team like they may have teased with their 8/21 display from the arc against Purdue, that was one of only 3 games so far this season where they shot over 32% from 3. They've had just as many games shooting 25% or worse than they have shooting 32% or better. So as long as Florida State doesn't fall asleep, they'll be fine here.

Where NC State generates offense is on the offensive glass. They're top-70 on offensive rebound rate, and FSU has had some issues with good offensive rebounding teams. They're going to have to be aggressive there, since there's a chance they may not get many opportunities with turnovers. NC State is Top-10 in turnover percentage, which is a very interesting statistic to watch against the 'Noles, who are Top-15 in forced turnover rate.

Defensively, there's nothing spectacular to talk about. They're middle of the road in pretty much every single metric, then start trending up a little bit on steal and block rate. The weirdest thing is teams really seem to make their free throws against them; an insane 74.1% (the national FT% average is 70.8% for comparison). I know that has to be frustrating since that's something pretty out of their control.

This is a roster where we really only have to talk about 4 guys: Dereon Seabron, Jericole Hellems, Cam Hayes, and Terquavion Smith. Seabron has taken a MASSIVE and honestly unexpected step forward from his freshman season last year, where he averaged just 5.2 PPG and 3.5 RPG compared to his now 18.6 PPG and 10.2 RPG. He's averaging as many offensive rebounds this season as he did total rebounds last season. He's still not a threat from outside, but man can he give you issues inside the arc.

Hellems has been a prototypical developmental guy over the course of his career, consistently improving his numbers and consistently getting better with small little jumps season to season. He's the best shooter on the team at 39.1% from deep, but he's a good 3-level scorer.

Smith has been off to a hot start, but I don't know how sustainable it is. He's forcing the NC State staff to play him more with his 13.8 PPG, and takes more 3s than anyone else on the roster, hitting them consistently enough at 34.1%. I just think he's a little too erratic, and can take unnecessary shots at times. It'll be interesting to see how he responds to FSU's length.

There were a lot of high hopes for Cam Hayes to take that next step forward at point guard, and it just hasn't happened yet, and you'd expect him to have more than 2.5 APG. He's not much of a natural scorer, I just think this roster is a bad fit for what he wants to do. If it continues like this, I wouldn't be surprised to see him transfer out at the end of the season.

A couple of other players you'll see check in: Casey Morsell (UVA transfer who they're relying on too much), Ebenezer Dowuona (unspectacular big that was forced to step in once Manny Bates was lost for the season, impossible task replacing him), Thomas Allen and Jaylon Gibson (who don't provide much outside of bodies). It's realistically a 6-7 man roster, both Seabron and Hellems are playing 34+ minutes per game.

Florida State Seminoles (6-4, 0-1) Breakdown

I think everyone's a little curious to see how Florida State responds coming out of this COVID pause. After coming out of the first one last season, they played arguably their best basketball of the season over the next 5 games. The second one dampened their expectations a little bit.

It looked like this team, specifically Anthony Polite, finally found some sort of an offensive rhythm against an albeit pretty bad Lipscomb team. But the squad just needed some confidence, needed to see some shots go through the net. How they react to a 2+ week pause is going to be a big factor in how they move forward throughout the rest of the season.

FSU had a chance to gain a quality win against UCF had that game not been canceled, and then could've used UNF and Boston College to sand out some rougher edges. Luckily for FSU the ACC is, to put it lightly, bad. Take RPI rankings for what they are, but the ACC is currently the 7th-ranked conference, sandwiched between the Mountain West and West Coast Conference. It's the worst this conference has looked in as long as I can remember. There's an argument that Wake Forest is the second-best team in the conference right now (wouldn't be much of an argument, but I'd listen to the conversation).

As I'll touch on in the Injury Report, I think I'm just curious on who is available/healthy and what kind of rust is this team going to show? It's not reasonable to expect for an offensive explosion given this team's struggles so far this season, even if it was kind of a similar story last season.

Injury Report

Greg Gantt is out for NC State until late January with an abdominal injury.

Manny Bates, one of the best shot blockers in college basketball, is out for the season with a separated shoulder.

It'll be interesting to see what FSU is looking like health-wise given their COVID pause. Matthew Cleveland had missed the Lipscomb game, but you would think he'd be recovered by now. The initial rumor I'd heard was six players and a couple of staff members had COVID when the games first got delayed, but nothing had ever been confirmed. Coach Hamilton confirmed he tested positive as well in an interview earlier in the week.

Tanor Ngom is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Projected Starters

NC State

G: Cam Hayes

G: Terquavion Smith

G: Dereon Seabron

F: Jericole Hellems

F: Ebenezer Dowuona

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Caleb Mills

G: Anthony Polite

F: John Butler

F: Malik Osborne

Keys to the Game

Extra Offense

Teams that struggle to generate offense in the half court are going to need to find a way to score somehow. What both of these teams do is attack the offensive glass and get second chance points. Florida State will try and force live-ball turnovers, but NC State has taken great care of the basketball so far this season. There's a strong chance this game is going to come down to who has better control over the boards.

Hellems and Seaborn

These two seem like the only ones that can consistently create their own shots and score. Smith has had his moments, and Cam Hayes hasn't shown the improvements they were hoping for. Seaborn is a horrid shooter, but he's very skilled inside the arc, and a great hustle player, averaging a double-double with 3.5 offensive rebounds to boot. Hellems is a more traditional 3-level scorer, and the two of these players combine for 33.8 PPG, about 44% of the team's total scoring.

Strengths vs Strengths

This is one of those matchups where you look across the board and everything lines up, it's a little strange to see. NC State is one of the best teams in the country at taking caring of the ball, FSU is one of the best in forcing steals. Both teams are great at crashing the offensive glass, not so great at defensive rebounding. FSU has had their shots blocked at one of the lowest rates in basketball, NC State has one of the best block rates in basketball. It's just like that consistently down the board.

Whichever team is forced out of their strengths more is going to come away with this one.

Game Prediction

Florida State currently sits as 3-point favorites, with an over/under of around 142.5.

I just don't think NC State is very good right now, they're just really struggling to find any sort of identity, but we also have no idea what to expect from Florida State. Hopefully they've put this time off to good use.

NC State's closest game of their last 4 was an 8-point loss. I think it'll be a little closer than that, but Florida State should come away with a win.

Florida State 77-70