Game Preview: Florida State at Purdue
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge is upon us, and this year it's yet another matchup with an Indiana school for Florida State, just this one happens to be one of the best three teams in the country. Football season is over, that means it's time to dive fully in on basketball.
This year's version of Purdue is an elite level team, they've already gotten quality wins over Villanova and UNC on a neutral floor, winning those games by 6 points and 9 points, respectively. Their other four wins over mid and low-majors came by an average of 41.25 PPG.
This isn't the same Purdue team that FSU played at home in 2018 or in the Emerald Coast Classic in 2019, though the make-up of the team is very similar, just overall better now since they're not as reliant on scoring from one player like they were in 2018 with Carsen Edwards.
First, some highlights from those games to start this off on a positive note, get the good vibes flowing.
On a real quick side note, that home game against Purdue was one of the best games I ever was a part of when I worked with the team, phenomenal game from start to finish.
Florida State leads the all time series 4-0, having also blown Purdue out in 2005, but also edging one out by 3 in 1974. This will also be the third time these teams have played in the last 4 seasons.
This game will be at 730pm EST on ESPN, live from the historic Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.
#2 Purdue Boilermakers (6-0) Breakdown
Purdue is really, really good. They were a trendy Final 4 pick before the season started, and they're proving a lot of people right so far. They've dominated every smaller opponent and got two really good wins against Villanova and UNC.
Let's get into some insane offensive statistics. They rank 1st nationally in offensive rating, 2nd in points per game and offensive efficiency, and 5th in offensive rebound rate; all of this while playing a below average pace of play. Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are BOTH top-10 nationally themselves in offensive rebound rate. As a team, they're in the top-10 for both 2pt% and 3pt%, and are top-80 in FT%. It's an unbelievable offense that does almost everything well.
Defensively, they're just okay. Edey can be attacked in space, they can leave open 3-point shooters occasionally, and they don't exactly do a great job of forcing turnovers. They don't foul, which is the biggest factor, being top-10 in opposition free throw rate, meaning teams are having a bigger disparity between field goal attempts and free throw attempts. They're good at recovering to shooters, but pick-and-rolls can really eat at them since Edey isn't great defensively in space.
Zach Edey is such a rare and unique challenge. As someone who starts, he leads the team in scoring at 17.7 PPG. What's wild about that is Edey is 6th on the team in total minutes at 18.7 Minutes per game. To put it in another sense, he's averaging 37.9 Points per 40 minutes, which is absurd. His 1.316 points per possession is in the 98th percentile, is shooting 75% from the floor, and an insane 90% on second chance put-backs. He's incredibly strong for someone his size, and Florida State is going to have to find a way to force him off of his spots. If you let him catch the ball within five feet of the rim, it's over, wrap it up.
When Edey takes a break, they bring Trevion Williams off of the bench, who was First Team All-Big Ten a season ago. It's the most talented center duo anyone can play in college basketball this season. Williams is such an unrelenting, physical, and smart player. When he gets the ball in the post, the first thing he does is look middle seeing if there's an open cutter. He gave someone a beautiful behind the back pass for an open look against Villanova. But he is also susceptible to turnovers if there's enough ball pressure on him.
We're two players in and haven't even mentioned their best NBA prospect, Jaden Ivey. He came to Purdue last season as one of the ten highest rated players ever brought into the program and was nothing spectacular. He spends time with Team USA in FIBA play this summer, and comes back such an improved player, to the point where he's arguably the best guard in the upcoming draft class. Ivey can play at ANY speed to an elite level. He can burn by you (especially if you let him get to his right hand), or he can slow it down, get to his spots, and distribute at a really high level. The Boilermakers are at their best when he's distributing and getting others involved. With the shooters that are littered throughout the roster, it makes sense.
Speaking of those shooters, I'm going to group all three of them together since they all play similar roles: Sasha Stefanovic, Brandon Newman, and Isaiah Thompson. All three are above 43% from 3 to start the season, all 3 will forgo crashing the offensive glass and haven't recorded an offensive rebound all year, and they're not going to make a huge impact defensively, at least in the box score. Stefanovic has one the fastest shots I have ever seen, and is a threat to shoot anywhere with 6 feet of the 3-point line. With all three of these guys, if you can force them to put the ball on the floor, you put them in a really uncomfortable spot.
Caleb Furst is a great energy-giving 4-man. He's one of those guys that is far from a go-to option, but he's a really smart player, and is better scoring off of back cuts than almost anyone else in the country. Eric Hunter is another good energy, he just doesn't have the same basketball IQ as most of the others that will see major playing time.
Team Stats PPG, RPG (ORBs/DRBs), APG, SPG, BPG, ToPG, FPG FG%/3PT%/FT%
Stats For: 92.3, 43.7 (12.3/31.3), 19.2, 6.0, 4.0, 12.3, 13.7 53.7/43.5/76.1
Stats Against: 64.0, 26.8 (8.8/18.0), 12.2, 4.7, 1.7, 10.7, 18.5 37.9/29.8/73.1
Player Stats
#15 Zach Edey 17.7, 7.7 (2.8/4.8), 1.2, 0.5, 1.5, 2.2, 1.7 75.0/NA/84.8
#23 Jaden Ivey 15.0, 6.3 (0.7/5.7), 4.2, 1.5, 0.2, 2.2, 2.2 50.0/37.5/77.3
#55 Sasha Stefanovic 13.2, 2.7 (0.0/2.7), 4.3, 0.3, 0.0, 1.5, 1.2 46.0/47.5/87.5
#50 Trevion Williams 13.0, 7.7 (2.8/4.8), 2.3, 1.3, 0.8, 2.7, 2.5 66.0/33.3/62.5
#5 Brandon Newman 9.3, 1.8 (0.0/1.8), 0.8, 0.0, 0.2, 0.2, 1.0 37.5/43.8/92.3
#3 Caleb Furst 9.2, 7.7 (2.5/5.2), 0.8, 0.2, 0.8, 1.2, 1.0 62.5/40.0/78.6
#11 Isaiah Thompson 6.7, 0.8 (0.0/0.8), 1.8, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5, 1.3 52.0/57.1/50.0
#2 Eric Hunter 3.5, 1.7 (0.5/1.2), 1.8, 0.7, 0.0, 0.8, 0.7 36.8/22.2/62.5
Florida State Seminoles (5-1) Breakdown
There are a couple of things I'm watching for in this specific matchup and how they turn out in this game.
Purdue has been incredible inside the arc so far this season, converting on 60.8% of their 2-point tries. Florida State has also been pretty great on 2-point defense, allowing teams to shoot 44.9% inside the arc, which is top-70 nationally (if you take away the Boston U game and the tired legs, that goes down to 41.6% which would be top-20 nationally). How close can FSU drag Purdue down towards their expectations on 2-point defense? That's going to be a major thing to keep an eye on.
Part of that hinges on how well they defend high-low actions, especially with how they switch EVERYTHING. You can almost guarantee Purdue's coach Matt Painter is going to run a high pick-and-roll, get the switch, and try it lob it over the top immediately as much as possible over the first 4-8 minutes and see how FSU responds on their help-side defense. Here's my best guess based on what we've seen from FSU in the past.
Going back to the 2019 game is honestly a really great comparison for film study, especially with 7'3" Matt Haarms in the fold for Purdue, and FSU's bigs weren't fantastic, just like this season. You can see how early in the set they get that ball screen to get the switch. With the ball on the wing, Patrick Williams is waiting on the weakside, one on his man, one eye on the guy with the ball waiting to see what happens up top.
But also look at how far over FSU is helping when the ball gets to the corner. Devin Vassell is doing a phenomenal job of pushing against Haarms to make life tough, but Williams is also both feet under the basket, waiting for the over-the-top pass. When the ball gets to the other side of the floor, MJ Walker slides over to help on any potential over-the-top pass, all while Trent Forrest is pointing things out cutters and calling out off-ball switches.
When 7'4" Zach Edey is in the game for his 18-20 minutes, FSU HAS to be on their P's and Q's like they were two years ago on playing the safety next to the guy who switches onto Edey.
On offense, I'm expecting a heavy dose of Spain pick-and-roll. To understand why, let's roll back the footage on the Villanova/Purdue game last week.
Let's first talk about what a Spain Pick-and-Roll is. Popularized by those really good Spanish national teams in the 2000s, it's your standard pick-and-roll, just with another back screen for the big by a guard, with that guard popping out to 3 while the big rolls HARD to the basket. It opens up an array of options: Mid-range pull-up for the ball-handler (or even a take all the way if it opens up), a lob to the rim (which you see in the second clip above before the big kicks out for an open 3), the popping guard getting an open 3, skip passes for open looks... it's a great option. And 'Nova ran these to PERFECTION against Purdue, generating three WIDE open 3-pointers in a stretch of 4 possessions.
Florida State ran this action a lot with Trent Forrest, especially in late clock scenarios, and they did it successfully. They haven't run it as much since then, but they tried against Boston which.... well just roll the tape.
I really like Anthony Polite, and at least he drew the foul, I just don't want him being the main ball-handler on that play because looks at how WIDE open Caleb Mills gets. It'll likely be RayQuan Evans handling it with Polite setting the back screen to pop out, but I'd REALLY like to see Mills handle it and Polite set the back screen. I think that would emphasize their skillsets the most.
FSU is also going to have to hope their free throw shooting shows up. Villanova lost because they went 9/17 from the free throw line, while Purdue went 12/14. Florida State hasn't exactly been great from the stripe so far, shooting just 65.4% so far this season, and even when they shoot 75% against Boston U, they had costly misses down the stretch that was so close to costing them.
I also need to talk about the bigs just really quick. I'm quaking in my boots at what Zach Edey could do to Quincy Ballard with Tanor Ngom out. Malik Osborne is great (and his 64.3% from 3 on the season so far could be key in drawing Purdue's bigs up to the perimeter), but he's going to need some breaks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them stagger his minutes to matchup with Trevion Williams for most of the game, and then he only plays 6-8 minutes against Edey. Then you just pray for the best with John Butler likely getting some minutes at the 5.
Injury Report
Naheem McLeod rolled his ankle in warmups against Boston after stepping on a basketball, he is out.
RayQuan Evans was on the bench against Boston but didn't dress out after learning of the loss of his brother over the prior weekend, and was announced out by FSU as he is back in Montana for the funeral.
Tanor Ngom is also out with an unknown injury, and will likely be out for the majority of the remaining non-conference slate.
Brian Waddell is out for the season with a torn ACL for Purdue.
Mason Gillis served a 4-game suspension after being arrested for an OWI (Operating vehicle While Intoxicated), but played against Villanova and Omaha. He's still working his way back into the rotation but provides quality depth.
Projected Starters
Purdue
G: Isaiah Thompson
G: Jaden Ivey
G: Sasha Stefanovic
F: Caleb Furst
C: Zach Edey
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Anthony Polite
F: Wyatt Wilkes
F: Malik Osborne
Keys to the Game
Constant Ball Pressure/Overall Defensive Gameplan
Purdue turned it over a couple of times against Villanova because 'Nova was in their face with constant pressure, and it forced an errant pass. Take this play for example.
Villanova is playing so high up on Furst with high hands, while also fighting with Edey down low to force him off of his spots that is causes an errant pass. It's going to have to be a lot of this for Florida State, especially when FSU switches everything.
Because FSU switches everything, there are going to be a lot of weakside defenders playing "safety" over the top to try and stop the easy passes. The only issue is when doing this, you chance leaving shooters like Stefanovic, Newman, and Thompson open. Guys are going to have to scramble back out to shooters with quickness. It may look a little helter skelter, but that's what I'm expecting heading into this. They're also going to have to do all of this without fouling. We know Coach Hamilton won't play a guy if they have two fouls in the first half, so players are going to have to play without fouling, specifically Malik Osborne and Caleb Mills.
If they can keep Purdue to less than 10 made 3s and force 16+ turnovers, or if the defense that showed up in the Jacksonville Classic shows up in this game, FSU will stand a pretty good chance.
Rebounding
I could've just listed the keys for this game as "Do exactly what you didn't do against Florida," for the most part. FSU let Florida rebound 41.5% of their own misses. That can't happen against Purdue, as they are currently rebounding 44.8% of their misses. It's not to say this is how they dominate, as they had just one offensive rebound against UNC, but it certainly doesn't help if you let them get second chance point after second chance point.
Edey and Williams are BOTH top-10 nationally in terms of offensive rebound rate, ranking 6th and 7th. They're relentless on the glass and do it such different ways. Edey is just taller and longer than everyone else, while Williams is just more physical and wants it more. Because it's mainly just Furst, Edey, Ivey, and Williams that crash the glass, FSU can take their attention off of the shooters when a shot goes up and find one of those 4 to put a body on.
On the other side, FSU is going to have to create their own second chance points, which they've done a pretty good of so far this season, rebounding 39.5% of their misses. Malik Osborne in particular has been great, ranking 92nd nationally in offensive rebound rate, but Anthony Polite and Cam'Ron Fletcher are both top-300 as well. The more second chances they can create, the more they can help the offense come along.
Spain Pick-and-Roll
There was a 4-possession stretch in the Villanova game where they ran the same action in 3 of those possessions and scored on all 3; the Spain Pick and Roll, and it's been a bread and butter of FSU's offense over the last few years, especially in late clock scenarios. They ran it some in the Boston U game to... not that much success, but that was Polite running the action, not a true point guard like FSU used to do with Trent Forrest, or even like they will likely do RayQuan Evans whenever he returns. For more of the X's and O's on this action, scroll back up to the Florida State Breakdown section.
Purdue will surely be working on defending this action in practice, but FSU can really generate some open looks off of this and has shown they can do it in the past. With this action though, the Seminoles are going to have to hit their 3s, both open and contested. There can't be any hesitating, just confident and in-rhythm shots. If they can make 10 or so 3s of their own at about a 40% clip, they'll give themselves a fighting chance.
Just for more of a broad view, here is EVERY 3-pointer Villanova hit against Purdue.
6 of those 13 makes are really well contested, and 5 of the makes are generated from Spain PnR. FSU is going to have to utilize it with different pieces, different entry actions, and convert at a high rate, because they really haven't shot well on contested looks. They also don't have a shot creator like Nova's Collin Gillespie, who can light it up off of the dribble OR off the ball.
Game Prediction
Purdue opened as 11-point favorites with an over/under of 144.
Florida State has a massive hill to climb in order to win this one with just how good Purdue is. The Seminoles will have to play near perfect basketball for 40 minutes, something they have shown glimpses of in the Jacksonville Classic, but now they're playing one of the three best teams in the country.
I think FSU can keep this close for the majority of the game, but it's tough seeing them come out with a win in what should be a raucous Mackey Arena crowd, as much as I would love to see it, mostly because I see it being a slower paced game, and all of FSU's slow paced games this season have been nothing short of ugly.
I'm taking Purdue 78-64.
