Game Preview: Florida State vs. Lipscomb

It might be time to reconsider our expectations for not only Florida State, but the entirety of the ACC. With just how bad the conference has been to start the season, there's not many opportunities for teams to gain quality wins, and with FSU coming home to try and get some momentum back against Lipscomb, this is the best chance to talk about it, which we'll discuss in the FSU Breakdown Section.

This is Florida State's first three-game losing streak since the 18/19 season, when FSU lost on the buzzer beater against Duke, then got blown out at Pitt and fell apart at Boston College. It's uncharted waters as far as early-season play though. The last time it happened this early in the season was the 14/15 season, when FSU lost three straight games to Northeastern, Providence, and UMASS. Things aren't that bad right now, but FSU has to find a way to get things going, especially offensively.

Florida State has never played Lipscomb before, a team who had a couple of really great seasons in the Atlantic Sun a few years ago, but since they've changed coaches, they haven't quite been the same program.

FSU/Lipscomb will tip off at 9pm on the ACC Network at the Donald L Tucker Center.

Lipscomb Bisons (5-6) Breakdown

Lipscomb is on their own losing streak, having lost 4 straight, including losing by 15+ to Miami, Belmont, and UT-Chattanooga in that span. We won't go into too much detail about this team (mostly because a lot of the attention today will go towards Early Signing Day), but they're a very prototypical low-major team. They hit shots at a high percentage, don't rebound well, and are a pretty small team with no one standing above 6'8" that gets serious minutes.

The thing I'm worried about most is how much they get to the free throw line. Their FT rate is top 5 nationally, and they make the most of their chances, hitting 74.3% of their free throws. FSU has shown some lack of discipline with fouling, and a great way for a team outmatched in talent is to get some free points at the free throw line. They just make their shots in general, being top-50 in 3pt% and top-80 in 2pt%. It's a boom or bust offense: it's a make, a free throw attempt, or a turnover for the most part. When they do miss, they don't even attack the glass really, being bottom 5 nationally in offensive rebound rate. They do really struggle with turnovers, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond to FSU's size and athleticism.

Defensively, I think everyone is expecting Lipscomb to play some zone, even if less than 10% of their possessions this season have been zone. FSU has just been so bad against the zone, that any coach who has watched film against FSU should be saying we're going to play this until they break us out of it. They have a hard time finishing possessions, giving up one of the worst offensive rebound rates in the country, and teams have hit 35% of their 3s against them.

There's really only a couple of players I'm watching. Jacob Ogancevic is shooting better than 50% from 3 at 6'8", but Malik Osborne and John Butler should have the athleticism to keep up with him. He's just not your usual 5-man, that didn't even start for them until Asadullah went down with injury, yet is still dominating at 16 PPG. He's also done an incredible job getting to the free throw line.

Greg Jones is a good 3-level scorer that is shooting 90% from the free throw line, and is a good rebounder for his size. Parker Hazen is the other guy I'm watching, as this team looks to replace some of the production at the forward spot with Asadullah out.

Florida State Seminoles (5-4) Breakdown)

FSU should be expecting every team to play zone against them from here on out. The way they've struggled to attack the zone against both Syracuse and South Carolina is going to have opposing teams licking their chops knowing they can just stay in a 2-3 and FSU won't be able to shoot their way out of it or be aggressive enough. Opportunities are there for the offense, guys just aren't seeing them right now, it's a lot of lack of execution. Lipscomb has allowed teams to torch them from deep (well really everywhere, they have one of the worst points per possession allowed in Division 1), but FSU has really struggled from 3 recently.

It's clear Florida State has had more talent than Syracuse and South Carolina, they just haven't executed, and that's an issue and something that has to be solved, especially with how bad the ACC is currently. Chances for good wins are slimming down, and the chances for bad losses are growing. The conference once again lost the ACC/B1G Challenge, with the programs getting wins being UNC over Michigan, Wake Forest over Northwestern, NC State over Nebraska, Virginia Tech over Maryland, and Syracuse over Indiana. Two of those games took at least 2OTs. Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the country standing at 3-7, with wins over UNC Wilmington, Colgate, and Towson and some of their losses including Monmouth, UMBC, and Citadel. Virginia has lost to James Madison and Navy. Syracuse lost to Colgate. Boston College lost to Albany. Georgia Tech lost to Miami of Ohio. Miami lost to UCF and Dayton. Louisville lost to Furman and DePaul. Notre Dame lost to Boston College by 16. Virginia Tech lost to Xavier and Dayton.

College Basketball has always had its surprises and its upsets, or as Jon Rothstein would say "anarchy?... Nope, just college basketball," but the ACC is supposed to be the cream of the crop. It's been in a downward trend the last few years, but it really seems like the conference has bottomed out and is leaving very little room for error for some of these teams that will want to recover some momentum in conference play. Duke is the clear favorite, and they should be. After that, whew. UNC has no good wins, Wake Forest has been a surprise but no one trusts them, Virginia Tech, FSU, and Virginia have looked underwhelming, and the bottom of the conference may as well join the Atlantic Sun Conference instead of the Atlantic Coast Conference. This could very well only be a 2-or-3 bid team for the NCAA Tournament, barring a crazy upset in the ACC Tournament, or a team showing massive turnaround in conference play and the rest of the month.

For Florida State, they have to get their shooting woes solved. Your two best returning shooters from last season, Anthony Polite (43.6% from 3 in 20/21) and Wyatt Wilkes (38.1%), are shooting a combined 25% from 3 so far this year. Matthew Cleveland is 1/13 from distance to start. RayQuan Evans and Jalen Warley are only going to shoot it if they're WIDE open. Malik Osborne and Caleb Mills have been the only guys that can consistently hit a 3, and even then they have some bad showings every so often.

Getting to play a poor defensive team like Lipscomb is either going to sink their confidence issues to the Earth's core, or start to turn the tide.

Injury Report

Leonard Hamilton said after the South Carolina game that Tanor Ngom would likely miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Cam'Ron Fletcher has been dealing with some sort of facial injury and has been wearing a mask to protect it, which is why he's hardly played the last two games.

Starting big for Lipscomb, Ahsan Asadullah, is out indefinitely.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: RayQuan Evans

G: Caleb Mills

G: Anthony Polite

F: John Butler

F: Malik Osborne

Lipscomb

G: KJ Johnson

G: Will Pruitt

G: Greg Jones

F: Parker Hazen

F: Jacob Ognacevic

Keys to the Game

3-Point Disparity

Lipscomb is a really efficient 3-point shooting team, but they also allow teams to shoot really well from the perimeter. Florida State has struggled to hit shots for most of the season, but have also been fairly good at defending 3s (just given up some big shots). How the disparity falls in this game is going to be the likely difference in this game. Lipscomb has had 4 games this year with 10+ made 3s, if they come out and do that while FSU only hits 2 or 3, it could be a much closer game than anticipated.

Easy Offense

Because we're all expecting every team to just run zone against FSU for the foreseeable future, they're going to have to find ways to get easy offense. They should be able to turn Lipscomb over and get out in transition, but they've also got to continue getting to the free throw line, finding quick hitters in the zone, quick lobs, etc. Anything they can get to put points on the board is something they need.

Confidence

A lot of players are lacking of confidence currently. We've already talked about Polite's and Wilkes' struggles, but it does something to a team's confidence when you lose 3 straight, especially a young team like this one. Malik Osborne has also seen two straight games of a 3 hitting off the rim at the buzzer. As great as he's been, that can still take a toll. A win while hitting their shots could be big just for getting their confidence right.

Game Prediction

Florida State opened as 20.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 142.5.

While I'm fairly certain FSU wins, I'd take Lipscomb +20.5. FSU has failed to close in four straight games dating all the way back to the Boston game. Until they prove me wrong, 20 points is a lot of points.

FSU 81 Lipscomb 70