FSU Makes Big Jump, Lands Inside ESPN’s Top-25 Preseason FPI Poll
Florida State finished the 2019 season on a down note, but ESPN’s FPI rankings are predicting major improvement in the near future. The 'Noles come in at No. 23 in the rankings. With that ranking, FSU makes the biggest jump of all 25 ranked teams, coming in 28 spots higher than it finished in 2019’s final rankings. When compared to the other teams that made significant jumps in the FPI top 25, Nebraska is the only other team to finish with a losing record in the season prior.
What does this mean exactly? Well not a whole lot right now, but it gives us a good idea as to what the 'Noles could be if everything clicks on all cylinders. Compare this ranking to Bill Conelley’s SP+, which has FSU coming in at No. 26, and we see that multiple ranking systems are calling for major improvement. There are big differences between how the two systems get their numbers, but both have the 'Noles right around the same range.
If you’ve been watching this football program the last three seasons, you’re probably not sold on the idea that FSU could rank inside the top 25 of any poll but both actually make sense. SP+ is made up of returning production, which this team will have besides Cam Akers. The FPI format is a little convoluted but it measures the strength of a team using offense, defense, and special teams to predict how it stacks up against its future opponents. Based on those guidelines, the case can be made for FSU at #23 if it wins the games it's supposed to win and finds a few coin-flip wins along the way.
Of course these are just predictive rankings but are hopefully a positive sign as the program enters into a season on its third head coach in four years. Speaking of that, if you’re looking for more positive signs just check out Mike Norvell’s Memphis teams. We see a pattern of outperforming the predicted ranking in the SP+ and a higher projection each season. Both sets of rankings get more accurate as the season rolls on but being back in the national conversation is never a bad thing. These types of polls make for fun work place and dinner table conversation, but I don’t blame you for being a lover scorned that wants to take the wait-and-see approach. It won’t be long before we’re finding out if ESPN got this one right.
