Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Pittsburgh Panthers
I feel like Florida State never plays well at Pitt and a 3-9 away record all-time would help support that. However, FSU has won two straight at the Oakland Zoo, and with the ACC Tournament starting next week, getting one last opportunity to play good basketball away from home could be big.
This game will be at 9 PM on ESPN2, live from the Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Pittsburgh Panthers Breakdown (19-10 Overall, 10-8 ACC)
Pitt is in its 7th season under coach Jeff Capel, who was on the hot seat entering last season before making the NCAA Tournament and has them with an outside chance of getting in this season. Currently on the outside looking in, this is a game Pitt can't afford to lose.
If there's only thing you take away from this preview, Pitt will want to shoot the ball. They're 25th nationally in 3-point rate, 22nd in 3PA per game, and 21st in 3PM per game. The percentage that they hit them at isn't as high as you'd expect, 35.4% which is around 100th nationally, but it just isn't a team you can leave open from 3. As a team, they're not great on 2s, shooting under 50% on such shots, so selling out to stop the 3 has to be a priority.
If we use their 35.4% average from 3 as a benchmark, they're 14-1 when they shoot over that (with the one loss coming to Syracuse when they had an abnormal 20.1% turnover rate) and 5-9 in games where they're under that mark (wins coming over Louisville, Florida Gulf Coast, NC State, a bad Oregon State team, and Purdue Fort-Wayne). It's fair to say that Pitt's 3-point shooting is going to be a major factor in the outcome of this game.
They also do a great job of taking care of the basketball: 8th nationally with a turnover rate of just 13.6%. Florida State just played in a similar matchup to this in NC State and forced them to a 19.4% rate. Pitt hasn't had a turnover rate all season as high as FSU's season average forcing turnovers (20.9%) and only one game above 20% in general. It's going to be tough for FSU to turn this Pitt team over and I'm worried that pursuing a steal is going to lead to easy baskets.
Blake Hinson is the engine behind this team, averaging 18.5 PPG and 4.7 RPG while shooting 42.1% from 3. When Pitt pulled off the big upset over Duke in January, Hinson had 24 points while shooting 7/7 from 3 and had 41 points against Louisville three weeks ago. He can flat-out shoot the basketball. He can also be taken out of games, like Clemson did to him last week. Florida State's switches have to be on-point with guys knowing who they're switching onto.
Carlton Carrington is going to have a chance at ACC Rookie of the Year with the season he's having: 13.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 4.2 APG while shooting 31.3% from 3 on high volume (over 6 attempts per game). He's coming off his best game of the season, scoring 27 points on 7/12 shooting from 3 in a blowout over Boston College. Surely, he can't have a career game back-to-back, right?
Ishmael Leggett is the first player mentioned that shoots more 2s than 3s. He's just 2 of his last 10 from 3 in his last three games, but does make them at a high level for the season at 35.2%. Overall, he was to score inside, which is where the majority of his 12.1 PPG has come from. He's not scoring as much as he was last season at Rhode Island, but his efficiency is up, and is a solid third option. Leggett's also a really strong free throw shooter at 83.8%.
Those are the only three double-digit scorers for this team out of their usual 8-man rotation. I'm not too impressed with their bigs; Federiko Federiko is more of the shot-blocker and rebounder while Guillermo Diaz Graham is like a Dollar General Chet Holmgren as someone that is lanky, can spread the floor, and block shots. These two help Pitt have one of the higher block rates as a team in the country.
Zach Austin was a transfer I wanted out of High Point as an athletic wing who can shoot, but he's struggled with his outside shot this season at just 29.1%. On the flip side, he's shooting close to 60% on 2s. He's a little shot-happy from 3 but is the only player on the team averaging over a steal and block per game each.
Jaland Lowe has really come on down the stretch as his freshman season comes to a close. Since the start of February, a stretch of 8 games, he's averaged 13.3 PPG and 4.3 APG while shooting 42.9% from 3 and 91.7% from the free-throw line. However, he's just 38.1% on his 2-pointers. He takes more 2s than he does 3s, but Florida State is going to have to make sure they're closing out on him with high hands.
Defensively, they're holding teams to just 30.7% from 3, which is top-25 nationally, as well. Again, using that number as a benchmark, they're 12-2 when holding their opponents under that number and 7-8 when their opponents are above. They do a great job of team-rebounding on the defensive end, so I doubt you'll see many offensive rebounds from Florida State in this game.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (15-14 Overall, 9-9 ACC)
Saturday was such a frustrating game against Georgia Tech. There were so many easy chances at the rim wasted by misses or mishandled passes and in an absolutely winnable game, those chances had to be converted. They went from pretty close to locking up not having to play on the first day of the ACC Tournament with a potential win over GT, to Virginia Tech beating Wake Forest (and having an easy schedule for the last two games) and FSU only having a one-game buffer with Pitt and Miami left. If FSU wants any chance to make a run in the ACC Tournament, they likely can't fall to the 10 seed.
Can Darin Green Jr. lock in and give FSU a consistent game from start to finish? It felt like we were finally going to see it against Georgia Tech with that flurry of 1:20 in the first half, but then he never made an impact outside of that. The only thing I can remember off the top of my head that happened after that is his 3-pointer he air-balled/was fouled on but didn't get the whistle. He's too experienced to be looking so nonchalant as he is in many games.
The same thing goes for Baba Miller, who just doesn't look happy when he's on the floor lately. He's supremely talented and will be a professional basketball player one day, I just want to see him show some consistency game-to-game.
Lastly, Florida State has to improve on the defensive glass. I get there are only two games in the regular season left, but each of their last two opponents has gotten more than 10 offensive rebounds. It's been one of many Achilles' heels for this team and a lot of it has to do with switching. The "smaller" guards get switched onto bigs on shots and the bigs can beat them out. Some of it is effort and some of these guys just have to start showing more of it.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Pitt's Jorge Diaz Graham is out for the season with an ankle injury, as is Papa Amadou Kante with a knee injury.
Projected Starters
Pitt
G: Carlton Carrington
G: Jaland Lowe
G: Blake Hinson
F: Zach Austin
F: Federiko Federiko
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr.
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
Know Where Blake Hinson Is
Winning this game starts with knowing where Hinson is. In losses, he's shooting just 27/84 from 3 for 32.1%, but 44.3% from 3 in wins. Pitt is a roster full of good shooters, but if Florida State can limit his looks from 3 on switches, they'll at least give themselves a chance.
Contend in the 3-Point Battle
I'm not going to sit here and act like Florida State can win the 3-point battle, but anything is possible. At the very least, they have to be in contention and not be dominated in the 3-point shooting. It starts with knowing where Hinson is, as noted above, but FSU also has to make their open looks. They've only hit more than 33.3% of their triples in three of their last nine games and are second-to-last in the ACC in 3PT% in conference games.
FSU can't afford Pitt to hit 10 or 11 threes in this game while only hitting 4 or 5 themselves, even if they dominate on the interior.
Will Florida State Be Able to Grab Offensive Rebounds?
All of Pitt's losses have come when they allow an offensive rebounding rate greater than 18%. Florida State hasn't been a great offensive rebounding team, generally only crashing the glass when they're down big in games. With how they were missing shots near the rim Saturday against Georgia Tech, I want them to get after the offensive glass more to clean some of those up.
Pitt hasn't been great at defending inside the arc this season so FSU should be able to get it inside, they just have to finish at all costs.
Game Prediction
Pitt is favored by 7.5 with a projected total of 147.5.
I don't have a good feeling about this game. Even if Florida State has won two straight games at Pitt, I'd be pretty surprised to see FSU come away with this one. When they've played the 3-point shooting teams this season, it really hasn't worked in their favor. Pitt has something to play for and can't afford to lose. I don't think they will.
Pitt 78, Florida State 69
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