HBCU Football: SWAC Analytics & Predictions For Week 8

HBCU Legends uses SP+ as a baseline model for our newly created HBCU+ advanced analytics for games in Week 8.

HBCU LEGENDS - WEEK 8 PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS | HBCU LEGENDS

HOUSTON - The Texas Southern Tigers will kick off their 90th Homecoming festivities on campus as they welcome Virginia-Lynchburg at Durley Stadium. Florida A&M, Southern, and Mississippi Valley State will also hold their homecoming games against Alcorn State, Prairie View A&M, and Lincoln (CA), respectively.

Prairie View A&M football team led by head coach Tremaine Jackson. | PVAMU Athletics

Our advanced analytics predict the following for the SWAC Matchups:

Matchup	Projected Margin	Win Probability	Prediction
VA-Lynchburg vs. Texas Southern	35 points	95%	Texas Southern
Grambling State vs. UAPB	4 points	60%	Grambling State
Lincoln vs. MSVSU	3 points	57%	Miss. Valley State
Alcorn St. vs. Florida A&M	2 points	54%	Florida A&M
Prairie View A&M vs. Southern	4 points	73%	Prairie View A&M

TC Taylor - Jackson State Tigers | JSU Athletics

Projected SWAC Standings (if all favorites win)

East:

1. Jackson State (idle, holds 5-1, 3-0)
2. Alabama State (idle, holds 4-2, 2-1)
3. Bethune-Cookman (idle, holds 3-4, 2-1)
4. Alabama A&M/Florida A&M (potential move to 2-1 conf if FAMU wins)

West:

1. Prairie View A&M (moves to 5-2, 4-0)
2. Texas Southern (4-3, 3-1, with UAPB dropping to 1-2 conf)
3. Grambling (would be 4-3/1-1 conf with win)
4. Southern falls

Analytical Takeaways

• Prairie View A&M is projected to remain in control of the West and improve résumé.
• Texas Southern continues momentum with an easy non-conference win.
• Florida A&M expected to win a close home test and rise from the cellar in the East.
• Grambling State keeps pace in the West.
• Miss. Valley State may get first win against Lincoln.

SWAC POWER RATINGS

1. Jackson State - 1785
2. Prairie View A&M - 1760
3. Alabama State - 1740
4. Alabama A&M - 1725
5. Texas Southern - 1725
6. Grambling State - 1720
7. Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 1680
8. Southern - 1660
9. Bethune-Cookman - 1660
10. Florida A&M - 1650
11. Alcorn State - 1640
12. Miss. Valley State - 1600

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WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

HOUSTON - Like most HBCU football fans, I’ve always wondered what it would be like to have a predictive analytics tool built just for our games. ESPN’s Bill Connelly created the SP+ system, a respected model for college football, and it inspired me to build something similar for Black College Football games in the SWAC and MEAC.

THE HBCU+ MODEL HYPOTHESIS

Connelly explained:

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling... It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football."

That sparked the idea for a new system on HBCU Legends: the HBCU+ Model.  The name is still evolving, but the purpose is clear: to provide fans with data-driven predictions for SWAC and MEAC football matchups.

Alabama State quarterback Andrew Body (1) carries the ball against Miles college during their game in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday September 13, 2025. | Mickey Welsh / Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

HOW THE HBCU+ MODEL WORKS

Like Connelly’s SP+, the HBCU+ model blends strength of schedule with résumé scoring to forecast outcomes:

1. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Each HBCU team's schedule is rated using opponent power rankings (Sagarin, Massey, or custom ratings).
• A win probability model (Log5 or Elo) estimates how a “Top-5 FCS team” would perform versus that schedule.
• The result: A difficulty rating for every schedule.

2. Résumé Score

• Each team's scoring margin, capped at 50 points, is compared to the expected performance of a Top-5 FCS team.
• Losses include an extra 7-point deduction.
• Team résumé = (Sum of adjusted margins) ÷ Number of games.

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Jackson State Tigers' wide receiver Kobe Paul (5) tries to ward off Tuskegee Golden Tigers' defensive back Ka'Ron Noird (32) during the game in Jackson, Miss., on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. | Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SWAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Eight SWAC football teams take the field this week. Here are the power ratings and projections:

SWAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. Jackson State – 1800
2. Alabama State – 1780
3. Prairie View A&M – 1750
4. Alcorn State – 1720
5. Alabama A&M – 1700
6. Bethune-Cookman – 1680
7. Texas Southern – 1650
8. Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 1640

Matchup	Projected Margin	Projected Winner	Win Probability
Bethune-Cookman at Alabama State	+15	Alabama State	76%
Prairie View A&M at Alcorn State	+7	Prairie View A&M	73%
Jackson State vs. Alabama A&M	+10	Jackson State	76%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Southern	+1	Texas Southern	60%

Takeaway: The HBCU+ model favors Alabama State, Prairie View A&M, Jackson State, and Texas Southern, with the Hornets and Tigers holding the strongest advantages.

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Coach Chennis Berry and the South Carolina State Bulldogs | South Carolina State Athletics

MEAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Four MEAC football teams are in action this week.

MEAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. South Carolina State – 1750
2. Delaware State – 1740
3. Morgan State – 1720
4. Norfolk State – 1680

Matchup	Projected Margin	Projected Winner	Win Probability
Morgan State at Georgetown	+12	Morgan State	76%
Delaware State at Monmouth	-6	Monmouth	50%
Savannah State at SC State	+10	SC State	65%
Norfolk State at Hampton	+1	Norfolk State	52%

Takeaway: Morgan State and SC State are heavy favorites, while Norfolk State vs. Hampton looks like a toss-up. Delaware State will need discipline and a strong run game to upset Monmouth. Surprisingly, the formula believes Savannah State-SC State matchup in close at 65%, I believe the "Chennis Berry Bowl" should be well over 80% in favor of the Bulldogs.

Delaware State | DSU Athletics

CONCLUSION

The HBCU+ model isn’t perfect — it’s still evolving — but it gives us a data-driven way to preview HBCU football matchups each week. Fans of the SWAC and MEAC can now look forward to weekly breakdowns that go beyond gut feelings and highlight the numbers behind the rivalries. We may extend the model for the CIAA and SIAC as the season progresses.

What do you think about the HBCU+ model predictions? Drop your thoughts on social media and tag @HBCULegends and @KTMOZE with fellow HBCU football fans.

Also, a special thanks to Urban Edge Network for allowing us to use the HBCU+ brand for our first models. If yo have a name idea, send it to me at kmosley@hbcusi.com.

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