Film Study: Why No. 2 Houston Will Defeat No. 15 Idaho in the NCAA Tournament
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The Houston Cougars are set to face the Idaho Vandals in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 19, at 9:10 p.m., inside the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
The Cougars are heavy 23.5-point favorites, and they have a 98.2 percent chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Houston has several clear advantages in this game where the Cougars can come away with a dominant first-round victory.
Houston’s Advantages Against Idaho
Houston basketball is better than the Vandals in almost every statistical category, but there are a few areas that stand out and will make the difference in this game.
Defense
The biggest question mark on in this game will be how the Vandals will be able to maintain a consistent offense against one of the best defenses in the entire country.
Houston ranks No. 2 in the NCAA in scoring defense, allowing just 62.9 points per game.
Idaho however, allows an average of 72.6 points per game, which ranks No. 137 in the country.
With almost a 10-point difference in points per game allowed, that puts a lot of pressure on the Vandals’ offense, who are already at a disadvantage.
Experience
While the Cougars’ roster is younger than ever, they have three veteran returners from last season’s NCAA Tournament Final’s run.
On the flip side, Idaho relies on its young duo in freshman forward Jackson Rasmussen and sophomore guard Kolton Mitchell, who average a combined 27.6 points per game.
The looming issue is that only two players on the Vandals’ roster have NCAA Tournament experience, forward Seth Joba and guard Jack Payne, while Houston has nine player who either played, or have experienced deep runs with the team in March.
Having to face as deep of a team as Houston with several players who returned from last year makes this a very tough first-round matchup for Idaho.
Points Off Turnovers
The final category that will be the biggest difference in the game, is points off of turnovers. Unfortunately for the Vandals, Houston ranks No. 1 in the country in having the fewest turnovers per game with an average of 8.5.
In these first-round games where the seeding is so spread apart, the recipe for success for the lower seed is to force turnovers and cause the other team to play sloppy, which is something you rarely see from a coach Kelvin Sampson team.
Houston also thrives on its defense forcing turnovers, and unscripted points are a huge part of the game plan.
Idaho ranks No. 75 in turnovers per game, and they give the ball away an average of 10.4 times.
With the Vandals averaging that many turnovers in their own conference, Thursday night will be a tough test taking on one of best defensive team in the country.
Ashton Grissom is a staff writer for Houston Cougars on SI. He is currently a senior at the University of Houston and majoring in Sports Media Production with a minor in Marketing and Spanish. He also works for two student organizations: The Cougar and CoogTV. You can find Grissom on his Instagram (@ashtonagrissom8) or Twitter (@ashtongrissom8).