Why Houston Will Defeat Illinois in The Sweet 16
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After securing back-to-back 31-point victories over Idaho and Texas A&M, the Cougars are now preparing for the Sweet 16.
Houston will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on Thursday, March 26, at 9:05 p.m., inside the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
The Cougars have some clear advantages over Illinois that will be the difference in the game Thursday night.
Why Houston Will Beat Illinois
Houston’s Defense Is Elite
The Cougars pride themselves on the defensive side of the ball, and that focus is what makes the team hard to prepare for.
Houston ranks No. 2 in scoring defense in the country, and that will be a key matchup issue even for an offense as good as Illinois.
The Fighting Illini rank No. 1 in the country in scoring efficiency, largely due to second-chance opportunities earned through offensive rebounding.
Unfortunately for Illinois, Houston is also a great rebounding team, which will force the Fighting Illini to score on the first shot attempt.
They also give up 8.8 turnovers per game, and that was a clear problem in the second-round victory over VCU, where Illinois turned the ball over 11 times.
With as much pressure as the Cougars apply on every single possession, Illinois will be forced to be near perfect on its first shot attempts every possession, which is a tall task especially playing in Houston.
Illinois Lacks A Game-Changing Defense
Illinois allows an average of 69.4 points per game, which ranks No. 59 in the nation.
Houston only allows 62.2 points per game on the season, and in the tournament they have allowed an average of just 52.
The Cougars also have a better offense than normal, providing even more of a challenge for an average Illinois defense.
In a game with this amount of pressure, ball security will be a must in order to walk away with a victory.
Houston ranks No. 13 in the country in assist/turnover ratio, and the Cougars simply do not turn the ball over.
Just last Saturday against Texas A&M, the Aggies put full-court pressure on the Cougars the entire game, and Houston was not fazed.
The Cougars are a hard team to speed up offensively, providing another matchup problem for the Fighting Illini.
Overall Experience
The most clear mismatch comes in overall tournament expereince between the two squads. First with Houston, coach Kelvin Sampson just advanced the Cougars to their seventh-straight Sweet 16, and the veteran coach has seen just about everything in the NCAA Tournament.
Houston returns three staples from last season’s Tournament Finals run in senior guards Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, along with junior forward Joseph Tugler.
The Cougars also have three other contributors off the bench who have tournament experience, and their depth will be tough for Illinois to overcome.
While Illinois does have a few players that have experienced multiple runs in the NCAA Tournament, it is not near the level of Houston’s core starters, which could be the difference in a high-stakes matchup.
Ashton Grissom is a staff writer for Houston Cougars on SI. He is currently a senior at the University of Houston and majoring in Sports Media Production with a minor in Marketing and Spanish. He also works for two student organizations: The Cougar and CoogTV. You can find Grissom on his Instagram (@ashtonagrissom8) or Twitter (@ashtongrissom8).