Bold Prediction Has Houston Cougars Pulling Off a Major Upset in Big 12 Opener
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It's no secret that the Houston Cougars made major waves in college football this past season. In just year-two of the Willie Fritz era, the Houston football program achieved its first 10-win season since 2021. The breakout season for the Cougars was capped by a Texas Bowl win over the LSU Tigers.
While Houston came up short of a Big 12 championship game appearance, the program took a massive step forward both in overall roster talent and recruiting momentum. Fritz assembled one of the strongest recruiting class in school history while also building a top-10 transfer portal haul, signaling a clear upward trajectory for the Cougars.
That upward trajectory has resulted in high expectations for Houston football in 2026. By bringing back some key playmakers on offense and returning most of its defensive core, Houston has the experience needed to be in the hunt for a Big 12 title this season. In fact, CBS's Cody Nagel has the Cougars pulling off a major upset to begin conference play.
The Cougars Have a Chance to Make an Early Statement in Lubbock
After facing both Oregon State and Southern at home to start the 2026 college football season, Houston will be thrown right into the fire when it comes to Big 12 conference play. The Cougars will travel just a few hours North to take on Texas Tech.
According to most way-too-early top-25 rankings, the Red Raiders are expected to begin the season as a top-10 program. That's no surprise as Texas Tech has the ability to field an even better team this coming season.
Although head coach Joey McGuire lost some key defensive pieces to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal, he countered that by securing one of the premier quarterbacks in the 2026 portal cycle in Brendan Sorsby. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has thrown for over 7,200 yards in his collegiate career, totaling 60 touchdowns against just 18 interceptions.
Despite the Red Raiders making significant upgrades to their offense, Nagel still believes that Houston is still built to knock off the defending Big 12 champions in their own stadium.
"Houston opens up its Big 12 schedule at reigning conference champion Texas Tech on Sept. 19 -- and that's as tough a start as any team can draw," Nagel wrote. "But the Cougars are for real, coming off a 10-win campaign in Year 2 under Willie Fritz. With starting quarterback Conner Weigman back and experience returning across the roster, Houston has the tools to shock Texas Tech and make a statement early in 2026."
While Nagel's words may be a part of an article filled with bold predictions for each top-25 team, the belief in the Cougars should be legitimate. Houston exceeded expectations in 2025 and could be in line for another strong season in 2026, especially with a roster that's arguably better than last season's.
