Houston's Next Three Games Will Define Its Big 12 Championship Hopes

The Houston Cougars could prove themselves Big 12 contenders over their next three weeks.

Houston QB Conner Weigman throws a sweatband while walking off the field after the game against UCF at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This Saturday, the No. 22 Houston Cougars take on the Kansas State Wildcats on the road. This game is the first of three season-defining contests.

Houston's goal this season is to become a Big 12 contender and even a College Football Playoff contender. The next few weeks will determine whether they can compete for the conference title and even threaten for a spot in the CFP.

This Three-Week Stretch Is Gigantic for Houston

After facing the Wildcats in Manhattan on Saturday, the Cougars return home to host the No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys. The next week, Houston will visit the No. 12 Utah Utes.

Kansas State presents a unique challenge: if Houston wins, it proves it can survive a road test in the Big 12. Meanwhile, both the Cowboys and Utes are Big 12 contenders themselves. Defeating those teams would put the Cougars in control of their own destiny in the conference.

One more loss in the Big 12 likely ends the Cougars' chances after they already lost to the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 3. Houston is simply heading into a part of the schedule that determines if it is a good team or it isn't.

Here's what each record during this stretch means:

3-0:

This would prove that Houston is much more than just a Big 12 contender. As long as the BYU Cougars lose once and the Texas Tech Red Raiders struggle, Houston is likely to reach the Big 12 title game.

Not to mention, this record would change the national perception of the program. Proving you can beat two very talented teams and survive two road tests would easily make them a CFP contender. Houston would head into its bye week probably ranked in the top 10, 7-1, and feeling on top of the Big 12.

2-1:

Going 2-1 in this stretch would probably put the Cougars in an ugly situation. That would essentially eliminate them from the Big 12 title race and put any chances of making the CFP in extreme jeopardy.

If the CFP committee has a choice between a 10-2 Houston team and a 10-2 Big Ten team like the Oregon Ducks, UCLA Bruins, or Nebraska Cornhuskers, well, the committee is likely going with a team from a conference that's won the national title three straight seasons.

If two of the losses are to great teams and are close, the situation changes dramatically. But another loss is simply playing with fire for Houston's playoff chances.

Finishing with a 10-2 or 9-3 record would prove Houston a good team. But it would leave a team with so much potential feeling empty at the end of the season.

1-2 or worse:

Going 1-2 or worse over this three-week stretch would essentially end Houston's season. The Cougars would still love to get bowl eligibility, but that record would be devastating.

Willie Fritz and his Cougars won't have an excuse if they come out of this stretch 5-3 or 4-4. This would probably be because of a major problem, like the secondary continuing to struggle or the offense making bad mistakes.

However, Houston has a senior star quarterback, finished 10-3 last season, and has a lot of talent. Being mediocre this season would be extremely disappointing.

Each Matchup Presents a Different Challenge

As mentioned earlier, each game gives Houston a different kind of challenge. This Saturday, Houston visits as a 2.5-point underdog against the 3-1 Wildcats.

This game gives Houston a chance to bounce back and look strong on the road in a tough environment. Really, its last game against the UCF Knights raised more questions, and it was hard to take much away from it (going from down 17-0 to winning 27-17 can be seen as either good or bad).

The Cougars should survive this test, but then they'll face the Cowboys. Oklahoma State was a bit of a laughingstock after the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes dominated them 24-10 in Week 1. Many hoped the 1-11 Cowboys could bounce back in 2026 with a new head coach and many new faces.

That loss felt like it ended the Cowboys' season before it even started. The very next week, however, they somehow smashed No. 6 Oregon 39-31 in one of the biggest upsets in recent college football history. Oregon got a pick-six and another pick that put them on the Cowboys' one-yard line, keeping the Ducks in the game.

QB Drew Mestemaker warms up before a matchup against West Virginia. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cowboys haven't looked back and are now 3-1, most recently defeating a strong West Virginia Mountaineer team, 41-24. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker and Co. have led the Cowboys to the Big 12's best passing offense, which isn't good news for a Houston team that has struggled to defend the pass.

This game will be a huge challenge, but it also gives Houston a chance to prove it can defend the pass and beat a strong Big 12 team. The final game of the stretch will be against a dangerous Utah team that hasn't slowed down yet in 2026.

Utah has a veteran quarterback in Devon Dampier, who is a great dual threat, and a talented running back in Wayshawn Parker. Both have made the Utes hard to defend, and the Ute defense has been excellent as well. Utah is also one of the hardest places to play in the conference, so adding a win here would be a good resume builder.

Utah is currently 4-0 and feels like a top-10 team that could make a lot of noise in 2026. The importance of a win against such a talented team can't be overstated.

This stretch of the schedule will be tough for Houston. But the Cougars know that failing to make some noise in 2026 would be disappointing. Every team has its flaws and questions. Some can compete - while others can't.

I have watched several teams this season and concluded that Houston can surprise a lot of people in 2026. It's time for this team to raise expectations and show what they can do in October.