What the Stats Say About Houston Cougars vs. UCF

Against a formidable UCF rushing attack, the Houston Cougars may need to change their game plan for Friday's Big 12 matchup.

Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman drops back to pass against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the first half at TDECU Stadium | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

As we quickly approach the Friday night matchup between the Houston Cougars and UCF Knights, it's time to ask the simple question — which team holds the advantage?

At first glance, head coach Willie Fritz and the Cougars appear to have the edge since they've performed better during conference play. Despite their recent loss to the West Virginia, Houston still sits at an impressive 7-2 overall with a 4-2 record in league play.

The Knights on the other hand are in desperation mode with their bowl-game eligibility hanging in the balance. Since UCF started facing Big 12 teams on a weekly basis, head coach Scott Frost's squad has fallen to a 4-4 record with a rather formidable remaining schedule of Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and BYU.

What the Stats Reveal Upon Closer Inspection

Oct 4, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights defensive end Isaiah Nixon (6) and UCF Knights linebacker Jayden McDonald (38) celebrate after a play during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Aside from their recent blowout, UCF has been a solid defensive team this year allowing just under 19 points per game (18.75). While that statistic may be skewed by their earlier contests where the Knights outscored their opponents 119-26, the fact remains that defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has given opposing offenses problems all year.

On a more positive note for the Cougars, UCF has struggled on third down this season only extending their offensive drives 32 percent of the time. Quarterback Conner Weigman and the Houston offense have been much better at extending drives by converting on third down just over 41% of the time.

Having a quarterback like Weigman greatly plays into Coog Nation's favor. The Texas A&M transfer has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes this season for 1,890 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. He's also been a force in the rushing attack as well with 327 yards and nine rushing touchdowns.

UCF on the other hand has had troubles with quarterback play this season. The current starter, Tayven Jackson, has thrown for 1,334 yards across seven appearances completing 63.4 percent of his passes. Compared to his five touchdown passes, the junior has also thrown four interceptions, meaning that the Cougar secondary will have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on his mistakes.

A Matchup Determined by the Run Game

Oct 25, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman (1) hands off the ball to running back Dean Connors (44) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Throughout this week, you've seen me make points on why the run game will be a central factor in the outcome of Friday's game. The Knights' offense features multiple backs that can dominate a defense, and with the Cougars defending the run poorly last week, they'll need to take a new approach at defending against UCF running backs Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon.

One of the most notable distinctions between the two rushing attacks is their average yards per carry. On 366 carries, the Cougars have totaled 1,452 total rushing yards this season averaging 4.0 yards per carry.

The Knights on the other hand have had a more explosive run game this season. On 284 rushing attempts, the UCF backfield has totaled 1,531 yards equating to over 5.5 yards per carry. Nixon has been a star for the Knights offense by averaging 12.1 yards per carry for 423 total rushing yards.

For Houston, finding a way to limit the explosive run plays is vital if they want to find a win in Orlando on Friday.